Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: walter hish <walthish@epix.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 09 Dec 2001 21:38:30 -0800
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] SOME FEEDBACK NEEDED! "rolf hertenstein"
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Tom, I have been interested for some time now in asking you how many hours the Weekend Weeview takes you to put together between research and getting it to print? It would take me about 2 hours just to type it. I still type with one finger. Walter > Tom Worley wrote: > > CONSUMER SPENDING > Up by a record 2.9% for October, mostly on cars and other durables > inspired by all the low and no interest credit available. Construction > spending, however, also reversed its five month downtrend, up 1.9%, > suggesting it may be bottoming. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > JAPANESE BANKS AND BAD LOANS > As fast as Japan's major banks are writing off bad loans, they seem to > accumulate (or "discover") new ones to replace them. Now along comes > the Enron failure and 4 of the top 5 banks reveal they collectively > have something like $1 billion ++ of its $16.8 billion debt (the fifth > bank wouldn't say how much it has). And four Japanese money market > funds have another $300 million exposure. Sounds to me like some > additional downgrades by Fitch and S&P may not be too far off. The > latest cut by Moody's (while also maintaining a negative outlook) put > the yen debt rating on a par with Slovenia and Italy - how > embarrassing. Nat'l debt is now the worst of any industrialized nation > at $5.4 trillion (130% of GDP). One more rating cut, and JGBs > (Japanese Govt Bonds) will be below the level that can be held by many > institutional investors. But that is unlikely to be a major problem, > as 95% of JGBs are held by Japanese investors who have no choice but > to hold Japanese debt, even with a yield of 1.385%. The Japanese govt > has estimated bad loans at over 17 trillion yen ($140 billion) but > outside analysts have estimated that it could be as much as TEN times > larger ($1.4 TRILLION). But at least they have a new royal princess to > cheer about. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > OOPS!!! > UBS Warburg did a Japanese IPO Friday a week ago (Dentsu Inc.). Were > supposed to enter a sell order on opening day to sell 16 shares at > 610,000 yen. Instead entered an order to sell 610,000 shares at 16 > yen. Fortunately, only got about 65,000 shares executed before they > corrected the error and canceled the remainder, but that looks like > about a $45 million loss to them, and it is trading so thinly that > they still have not bought back all the lost shares as of last Monday > (between Friday and Monday only about 22K), so the loss could widen as > it was up another 10% on Monday. The large sell order also knocked the > price down several hundred thousand yen, not pleasing anyone. Guess > unemployment just went up a little more. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > RECESSION STARTED IN MARCH?? OH, PLEEZZEE! > This group of bean counters (Nat'l Bureau of Economic Research - ever > heard of them before?, course now I will believe them over the Fed > Reserve reports) now decides, 8 months after the fact, that we have > actually been in recession since the end of March. Their basis?? > Growth in the economy slowed at that point even tho still remaining > positive for another quarter. And that "definition", which flies in > the face of traditional definitions of recession used world-wide, is > immediately accepted by the media, as they scream headlines "US IN > RECESSION". Economic definitions are not so easily or casually > redefined. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > BANKRUPTCY, IS THIS THE FUTURE? > Despite (or maybe because of) the largest corporate asset bankruptcy > filing in US history (Enron), the run of the mill bankruptcy filings > variety continue to show growth and head towards more records. For the > 3rd quarter, filings were up 14% year over year, tho down from Q2, and > still suggest the full year results will set a new record, beating out > 1998. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > THE "OH GEE" SECTION > Seems the Post Office is going to report a loss for the latest > quarter, and want us to bail them out. Maybe it's time for the mass > mailers to either clean up their mailing lists and only stuff mail > boxes for those that want their garbage, or pay the full freight if > they want to spam all of us "Current Resident" addressees. Or maybe > the Post Office (and its very strong union) should finally face the > times of reduced business activity, and lay off postal workers like > any other corporation when volume levels drop? And here I stupidly > thought the US Postal System was all about delivering first class mail > as a first priority?? How come my first class stamp is being used to > subsidize mass mailings that don't pay as much, and mostly are thrown > in the trash?? > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > NAPM > The Nat'l Assn of Purchasing Managers said that its index for November > rose better than expected to 44.5 from 39.8 in October. The one report > I saw seemed to ignore the real significance of the NAPM's service > sector report, which came in at 51.3 compared to October's 42.7. Any > number over 50 represents actual expansion of activity, while prior > reports only hinted at a reduction in the rate of contraction. Now if > the manufacturing component of NAPM should do so well . . . The > number of new layoffs also slowed, but the total for the year already > exceeds all of last year by 3X. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > UNEMPLOYMENT > Despite the optimism, and reduced forecasts, created by the decline in > the 4 week average of new unemployment claims, the report for November > came in very bearish. While many economists had been cutting their > expectations, we ended up with a 5.7% unemployment rate for the month, > and a loss of jobs of 331K, much higher than even the worst > expectations. I think a GDP number for Q4 is virtually guaranteed to > be negative, and therefore a confirmation, by valid terms this time, > that we entered a recession during the Q3. I sure am glad that the > unemployment numbers are a lagging indicator. > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES > As always, Bx means a flat line base of "x" weeks duration, IMO. If I > see a specific pattern (base formation) such as a c&h, double bottom, > LLUR, etc I will say so. A # indicates I either own it or have it in > my VR fund. > > The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend seems to be a > little larger than last week. > > I am introducing two new chart patterns I have been seeing, let's see > how long it takes IBD to "discover" them - I claim copyright. I > call the first one "Restarting A Trend" (RAT for short) and define it > as simply a resumption of an uptrend that was interrupted by a major > event not related to the company or industry. Currently, this major > event is the 9/11 attacks. There is also the occasional corollary > pattern, "Continuing A Trend" (CAT) where the pattern refuses to be > interrupted by that same major event. In both cases, ignore the > pattern a few weeks immediately before and after the major event and > look at the bigger picture. Best identified several months after the > major event. The CAT pattern is dedicated to my oldest cat, Cassandra, > currently ill and in the hospital, but despite health problems all her > life still keeps on going. For the aggressive investor, the major > event may serve as an excellent entry point. For the conservative, > more long term investor, the resumption or continuation of the pattern > serves to re-establish the CANSLIM character and confidence of the > pattern, as well as showing strength and potential leadership. > > ACS - volatile LLUR, CAT > ACTN - RAT > ALLY - B2, RAT > AMG - RAT > AMHC - RAT > AMWD - completing the cup > AN - B5 > ANSS - CAT > ASCA - RAT > ATAC - B3, CAT > BIOA - 6 week base?, RAT? > BLL - LLUR > BOKF - B4 > BRLI -# CAT > BVF - CAT > CACI - CAT > CEDC - CAT, staircase? > CTCO - B2 > CTEC - CAT > CVBF - B7 > DCI - RAT > DDR - B5 > DLX - excellent example of a LLUR and a CAT > DOCC -# low priced, excellent example of how the CAT pattern permitted > buying with confidence, I am up 49% in my VR fund > FCN - LLUR, CAT > FLO - B5 > FMBI - B7 > FMT - B4 b/o, low priced > FRED - LLUR, CAT > GAN - LLUR, CAT > GFF - LLUR, CAT > GOSHA - RAT > HRH - B7 > HTLD - B3 > IBCP - B6, tight > ICBC - B6 handle on a deep cup, handle drooping, volume down until > Friday > INDB - another drooping handle on decreasing volume, two weeks in the > handle > JNC - nice LLUR, CAT > KNGT - LLUR, CAT > MDCI -# LLUR, > MIKE - CAT > MMSI -# c&h > MOVI - volatile LLUR, CAT > NFI - thinly traded, too volatile for a LLUR, looks good anyway > OCLR - long saucer, CAT > OFIX - LLUR, CAT > OTFC - LLUR, CAT > PBY - RAT, CAT?? > PER - B3- > PETM - LLUR, RAT > PFGC - handle forming on the cup > POOL - RAT > PORT - RAT > PSC - B2 > RACN - B3 > RAIL - B3 > RGIS - LLUR but volatile, RAT > RYAAY - B4 > RYAN - LLUR, CAT > SFD - LLUR, CAT > STJ - LLUR, RAT > STW - B4 > TBCC - B3 > TRPS - LLUR, RAT > WFMI - LLUR, CAT > WLP - LLUR, CAT > WTFC - B3 > > Happy Hunting, > > God bless America, we won't forget either Pearl Harbor, or September > 11th, > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > AIM: TexWorley > Use of the contents of this email are restricted to the personal, > individual and non-commercial use by the recipients without prior > permission of the author. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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