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Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts - return to base
Date: Mon, 10 Dec 2001 20:02:21 -0600
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katherine, of course as long as the 123 effect is in place the profits =
will probably be small. also, it seems like if a stock returns 50-200% =
it seems like to me one should own 2-5 stocks at anytime instead of 6-10 =
stocks. david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 7:00 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts - return to base
David,
I think it depends on your investment strategy. If you are =
intentionally playing a short term trend, small profits 5-20% might be =
ok. On the other hand, the goal of moving into the intermediate time =
frame is to find the right combination of fundamentals and technicals so =
the ride can be far greater. A good ride in a good market could easily =
get you far more than 5-20%. It's not uncommon to get nice 50-60% =
returns in a few months. That's why you want to really understand =
price/volume action so that you can determine if the stock remains =
healthy in its upward intermediate term advance. Small pullbacks here =
and there mean little over this time frame. It's repeated high volume =
pull backs (distribution) that are problematic. One of the things that =
always stuck with me from Nicholas Darvas' book "How I made $2 million =
in the Stock Market" was the simple phrase "I have no reason to sell a =
stock that's rising." In other words, skipping town too early could very =
well lower your overall investment return.
If your strategy is a swing strategy of 1-10 days or so, a consistent =
5-10% return on each position would certainly garner a high return =
overall. But the entries are based on pricing patterns and the =
candidates mined from stocks with enough volatility to move swiftly in a =
few days. Very different strategy than CANSLIM.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 6:24 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts - return to base
katherine and chris, sorry i have been away. i always wonder if the =
most likely breakout will rise 5 to 20%-is it better to take those small =
profits on alot of stocks, then wait longer for possible bigger profits? =
david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 12:40 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts - return to base
Chris,
Just a clarification. The 75% return rate is a pullback within the =
first 12 days (this is the average for the study). Bulkowski states =
that none take longer than 30 days. After that, it goes beyond throwback =
and falls into "normal price action" territory.
With regard to the WON 20% rule and profit taking. Bulkowski gives =
some statistics that I think throw some light. He says that 47% of =
stocks reach a high after breakout in less than 3 months. 35% take =
longer than 6 months. Most likely rise? 10-20%. Average rise? 38%. His =
frequency distribution shows that the longer it takes to reach the peak, =
the larger the average gain.
So think about what that means in terms of WON sell guidelines.=20
(1) If the stock rises 20% in less than 8 weeks, suggests you hold =
on through the first correction
(2) Once it reaches 25% (and I'm assuming he then means, if it =
takes longer than 8 weeks to do that), THEN suggests taking some =
profits.
But I also look for accumulation/distribution during these rises =
to assess whether the uptrend is persistent enough to carry the stock =
further than the 25%.
In that context, makes a lot more sense!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Chris Dempsey=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 12:22 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] breakouts - return to base
Katherine, David, and All others interested
I remember reading that WON says 40% of breakouts return to the =
base. I believe it is more than that. I'm not sure that it is 75%, but =
it might be. For that reason WON states in his book you must take some =
profits when they hit 20%. On one of the IBD tapes they state to profits =
in 1/2 of positions reaching 25%. These are because of the high rate of =
pull backs. If you don't do this then you are forced to use the rule, =
don't let a winner turn into a loser.=20
SCUR appears to be an example of a stock returning/nearly =
returning to the base.
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of =
camelot.homes@charter.net
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 9:49 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low volume breakouts
hi katherine , thank you so much for this very good =
information! when bulkowski states that stocks retrace back to the b/o =
piont 75% of the time is he talking about high or low volume breakouts? =
and where is the best place to get a copy of his book? david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2001 5:10 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] low volume breakouts
Hi David,
The question you ask is a good one. Demanding controlled =
study proof of a guideline like this is important, as it makes an =
underlying assumption about technical patterns which may or may not =
trigger a buy. I pulled out my "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by =
Thomas Bulkowski to answer this question. In this book, the author does =
statistical studies on chart formation and there is an entire chapter =
devoted to the C&H. (pp.135-152).
Before I state the author's conclusions, a general overview =
of WON's theory as to why volume should be high on the breakout. That =
is, you are looking for the point at which demand so outweighs supply =
that the price moves up and onward. In my own personal experience, low =
volume breakouts seem to fall back more often than not. But these are =
"odds" not specifics. SONC is a good example from recent discussions on =
the list. Take a look at the daily chart from 10/3 to now. You can see =
that SONC tried very hard on several days to break out of its =
consolidation, but fell back and eventually gapped down. The low volume =
B/O's don't always mean the stock will fail, just that it's not yet =
ready to move on. I like to have the odds in my favor, so I'm always =
willing to wait until there's proof of the pudding.
Back to Bulkowski. In the C&H formation, the failure rate is =
26%. If you wait for an upside breakout, the failure rate falls to 10%. =
Stocks retrace back to the B/O point 75% of the time (average time 12 =
days). Waiting for the throwback increases the success rate another 1%. =
Typical B/O volume is 180% above the prior day and stays high for the =
following week. Interestingly, he says removing the high volume B/O =
criteria does hurt performance, but only minimally. This is an excellent =
chapter on C&H and, based on the statistical evidence, the author makes =
other conclusions that lead to particular trading tactics. There are =
several additional criteria that WON would require of a stock forming a =
C&H and then breaking out, such as rising RS, high group RS, underlying =
fundamental characteristics, etc. that are not included in the author's =
study. My own conclusions, anecdotally, are that if these other criteria =
are met AND you get a high volume B/O, the odds are in your favor. (No =
statistical studies to back that up, however!)
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, December 09, 2001 5:44 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] low volume breakouts
how often does a low volume breakout succeed past the =
pivot point versus a high volume breakout past the pivot point? david
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, of course as long as the 123 =
effect is=20
in place the profits will probably be small. also, it seems like if a =
stock=20
returns 50-200% it seems like to me one should own 2-5 stocks at anytime =
instead=20
of 6-10 stocks. david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 10, 2001 =
7:00=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
breakouts - return=20
to base</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I think it depends on your investment =
strategy.=20
If you are intentionally playing a short term trend, small profits =
5-20% might=20
be ok. On the other hand, the goal of moving into the intermediate =
time frame=20
is to find the right combination of fundamentals and technicals so the =
ride=20
can be far greater. A good ride in a good market could easily get you =
far more=20
than 5-20%. It's not uncommon to get nice 50-60% returns in a few =
months.=20
That's why you want to really understand price/volume action so that =
you can=20
determine if the stock remains healthy in its upward intermediate term =
advance. Small pullbacks here and there mean little over this time =
frame. It's=20
repeated high volume pull backs (distribution) that are problematic. =
One of=20
the things that always stuck with me from Nicholas Darvas' book "How I =
made $2=20
million in the Stock Market" was the simple phrase "I have no reason =
to sell a=20
stock that's rising." In other words, skipping town too early could =
very well=20
lower your overall investment return.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>If your strategy is a swing strategy =
of 1-10 days=20
or so, a consistent 5-10% return on each position would certainly =
garner a=20
high return overall. But the entries are based on pricing patterns and =
the=20
candidates mined from stocks with enough volatility to move swiftly in =
a few=20
days. Very different strategy than CANSLIM.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 10, =
2001 6:24=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
breakouts -=20
return to base</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine and chris, sorry i have =
been away. i=20
always wonder if the most likely breakout will rise 5 to 20%-is=20
it better to take those small profits on alot of stocks, then =
wait=20
longer for possible bigger profits? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December 10, =
2001 12:40=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
breakouts -=20
return to base</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Chris,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Just a clarification. The 75% =
return rate is=20
a pullback within the first 12 days (this is the average for the =
study).=20
Bulkowski states that none take longer than 30 days. After =
that, it=20
goes beyond throwback and falls into "normal price action"=20
territory.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>With regard to the WON 20% rule =
and profit=20
taking. Bulkowski gives some statistics that I think throw some =
light. He=20
says that 47% of stocks reach a high after breakout in less than 3 =
months.=20
35% take longer than 6 months. Most likely rise? 10-20%. Average =
rise?=20
38%. His frequency distribution shows that the longer it takes to =
reach=20
the peak, the larger the average gain.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>So think about what that means in =
terms of=20
WON sell guidelines. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) If the stock rises 20% in =
less than 8=20
weeks, suggests you hold on through the first =
correction</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) Once it reaches 25% (and I'm =
assuming he=20
then means, if it takes longer than 8 weeks to do that), THEN=20
suggests taking some profits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>But I also look for =
accumulation/distribution=20
during these rises to assess whether the uptrend is persistent =
enough to=20
carry the stock further than the 25%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>In that context, makes a lot more =
sense!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcdempsey@houston.oilfield.slb.com=20
href=3D"mailto:cdempsey@houston.oilfield.slb.com">Chris =
Dempsey</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December =
10, 2001=20
12:22 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] =
breakouts -=20
return to base</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D619121018-10122001>Katherine, David, and All others=20
interested</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D619121018-10122001></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D619121018-10122001>I remember reading that WON says 40% =
of=20
breakouts return to the base. I believe it is more than that. =
I'm not=20
sure that it is 75%, but it might be. For that reason WON states =
in his=20
book you must take some profits when they hit 20%. On one of the =
IBD=20
tapes they state to profits in 1/2 of positions reaching 25%. =
These are=20
because of the high rate of pull backs. If you don't do this =
then you=20
are forced to use the rule, don't let a winner turn into a =
loser.=20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D619121018-10122001></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D619121018-10122001>SCUR appears to be an example of a =
stock=20
returning/nearly returning to the base.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of=20
</B>camelot.homes@charter.net<BR><B>Sent:</B> Monday, December =
10,=20
2001 9:49 AM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
low volume=20
breakouts<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>hi katherine , thank you so =
much for this=20
very good information! when bulkowski states that stocks =
retrace back=20
to the b/o piont 75% of the time is he talking about high or =
low=20
volume breakouts? and where is the best place to get a copy of =
his=20
book? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Monday, =
December 10, 2001=20
5:10 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM] low=20
volume breakouts</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>The question you ask is a =
good one.=20
Demanding controlled study proof of a guideline like this is =
important, as it makes an underlying assumption about =
technical=20
patterns which may or may not trigger a buy. I pulled out my =
"Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas Bulkowski to =
answer this=20
question. In this book, the author does statistical studies =
on chart=20
formation and there is an entire chapter devoted to the =
C&H.=20
(pp.135-152).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Before I state the author's =
conclusions, a general overview of WON's theory as to why =
volume=20
should be high on the breakout. That is, you are looking for =
the=20
point at which demand so outweighs supply that the price =
moves up=20
and onward. In my own personal experience, low volume =
breakouts seem=20
to fall back more often than not. But these are "odds" not=20
specifics. SONC is a good example from recent =
discussions on=20
the list. Take a look at the daily chart from 10/3 to now. =
You can=20
see that SONC tried very hard on several days to break out =
of its=20
consolidation, but fell back and eventually gapped down. The =
low=20
volume B/O's don't always mean the stock will fail, just =
that it's=20
not yet ready to move on. I like to have the odds in my =
favor, so=20
I'm always willing to wait until there's proof of the=20
pudding.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Back to Bulkowski. In the =
C&H=20
formation, the failure rate is 26%. If you wait for an =
upside=20
breakout, the failure rate falls to 10%. Stocks retrace back =
to the=20
B/O point 75% of the time (average time 12 days). Waiting =
for the=20
throwback increases the success rate another 1%. Typical B/O =
volume=20
is 180% above the prior day and stays high for the following =
week.=20
Interestingly, he says removing the high volume B/O criteria =
does=20
hurt performance, but only minimally. This is an excellent =
chapter=20
on C&H and, based on the statistical evidence, the =
author=20
makes other conclusions that lead to particular trading =
tactics.=20
There are several additional criteria that WON would require =
of a=20
stock forming a C&H and then breaking out, such as =
rising RS,=20
high group RS, underlying fundamental characteristics, etc. =
that are=20
not included in the author's study. My own conclusions, =
anecdotally,=20
are that if these other criteria are met AND you get a high =
volume=20
B/O, the odds are in your favor. (No statistical studies to =
back=20
that up, however!)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; =
font-color: black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">canslim@xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, =
December 09,=20
2001 5:44 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
low volume=20
breakouts</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>how often does a low =
volume breakout=20
succeed past the pivot point versus a high =
volume=20
breakout past the pivot point?=20
=
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