Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY
Date: Tue, 11 Dec 2001 11:40:28 -0600
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Tim,

I see what you're saying both about GTK and the stocks you track. Usually
when a group begins to break down, it's the weak players that go first,
strong players last. When it's recovering, strong players first, weak
players on the bootstraps.

Gaming is a group that's always had problems maintaining its momentum. Some
secular shifts in gaming technology may change that. But past history gives
me a clue when looking at the performance of a group. When weaker players
begin breaking down on top of that, it's reason enough for alarm.

In the system that I use, I have a 13 week relative timing (RT) measure for
stocks and groups that is valued from 0 to 2. Less than 1 means price is
declining, above 1 means price is rising. Normally when a stock or industry
starts moving into extreme territory either way, the rubberband effect will
come into play. Gaming peaked out with a one week trip up to about 1.4 in
5/96, 10/97, 11/98. It showed new character this year with a 6 week
performance at those levels between about 5/4/01 and 6/12/01. Then, the
group fell out of bed. The rise from the September lows has been a
spectacular ride straight up, and stocks like MGAM have made nary a pause
along the way. Yesterday the group registered at a RT of 1.34. It's been
near this reading since 11/16. If the secular trend in the industry is
strong, I would conclude there would be a benign pause here that could very
well take good stocks back to recent support or at least to the 50 day MA.
There, I think you'll see whether or not the big guns want to continue to
pump money into the group and its strongest players. That would infer in the
meantime, however, avoiding any new entries in the group that are not
solidly breaking out of well formed bases (as Bill just noted) and it would
mean watching for ANY signs that one of the stocks in the group currently
held was heading back to or breaking recent support levels.

Cautionary notes only, but based on analysis.

Katherine

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:53 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY


> Of these, I track PENN, MNTG, IGT, SLOT, SHFL. I like most of their
charts,
> and have owned a few of them in the past. If I look at the charts I track,
> it seems like many are setting up for breakouts or have just broken out.
> GTK wasn't CANSLIM anyway (IMO).
>
> At 10:22 AM 12/11/2001 -0600, you wrote:
> >Tim,
> >
> >Caution on ALLY. Rest of group is showing signs of wear. GTK gapped down
> >yesterday on earnings. Might want to get a feel by flipping through the
rest
> >of the charts:
> >
> >GTK, PENN, MNTG, MGAM, IGT, SLOT, , SHFL, ISLE, BHWK, ASCA, HET, CHDN,
MCG,
> >MBG,WMS, AZR, ALHY
> >
> >10-Dec-01 Briefing.com
> >08:03 ET GTECH Holdings (GTK) 46.61: Reports Q3 net of $0.73 a share,
$0.02
> >better than consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.53. For Q4, co expects EPS to
be
> >in line with previous guidance of $0.81-$0.86 (consensus $0.86). Co
> >authorizes repurchase of up to $75 mln. Also announces plan to purchase
up
> >to $150 mln of existing debt through a $150 mln private placement of
> >Convertible Debentures.
> >
> >Katherine
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
> >To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> >Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:48 AM
> >Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY
> >
> >
> > > B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl:
I
> > > own both. INTV: toilet-bound.
> > >
> > > Tim Fisher
> > > Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> > > Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
> > > mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
> > > WWW http://OreRockOn.com
> > >
> > >
> > > -
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> Tim Fisher
> Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
> Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
> mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
> WWW http://OreRockOn.com
>
>
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