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Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 11:48:32 -0600
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katherine, thank you for your answer. i didn't really ask the question =
right. i am actually talking about a fast market in a stock like PECS in =
the past. The stock has formed a nice cup and handle, the technicals and =
the fundamentals are very good. the stock gaps up at the opening, on =
very heavy volume, and the price of the stock goes up very fast. let's =
say the pivot is 32.50. Since the accumulation is so fast, that instead
of being able to buy around the pivot point, ones execution might come =
back 1-2% higher.It looks like to me in this instance, that buying =
before the pivot might be a good idea..Lets say maybe buying at 32.00 =
to 32.50. What do you think? david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 6:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the =
pivot point
Hi David,
I see there hasn't yet been a response to your questions. I was sure =
this one would draw some discussion.
As I don't know your own level of experience with CANSLIM and =
investing, I thought I'd answer this from a more generic point of view.
(1) The idea behind waiting for a good stock to form a solid base and =
then break out on volume is to identify that magical point at which =
Demand outstrips Supply and Price is pushed higher--essentially the old =
Supply/Demand curve from economics class. Assuming the lion's share of =
sellers have been exhausted and the stock is one that people would wish =
to own, the theory is that any additional demand for the stock will push =
the price further. In order for the Price to continue on, the underlying =
fundamentals that create value in the company have got to be sound. So =
from this point of view, waiting for the B/O is stacking the odds in =
your favor.
(2) The statistics on B/O's from various technical formations can be =
measured, but as you notice in our discussion the other day, the studies =
we were looking at in Bulkowski's book make no preselection based on =
fundamentals, as CANSLIM forces us to do. Even still, there are still =
odds that B/O's will fail. It's just the way it is.
(3) If you are extremely practiced and confident in CANSLIM candidate =
selection and can build a sound argument for the company and its =
potential, it is possible to make an early entry. Afterall, *some*body =
is buying it on the right side of the cup. Even still, it is less risky =
if the entry comes on a major change in trend or at a point that is very =
near substantial recent support. I'm not advocating this, I think even =
the best of the best get whacked when they try to do this. But more =
importantly, I don't believe that anyone who hasn't established a long =
running track record of successful selection should do this at all. Just =
way too risky.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:31 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the =
pivot point
one thing that might increase ones odds-is buying before the pivot =
point is reach, if the stock has hugh volume, great technicals and =
fundamentals. what do you all think??? david
and also
do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the volume is hugh,
and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, and the stock =
is
setting up to break out of a nice base pattern???
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, thank you for your answer. i =
didn't=20
really ask the question right. i am actually talking about a fast market =
in a=20
stock like PECS in the past. The stock has formed a nice cup and =
handle,=20
the technicals and the fundamentals are very good. the stock gaps up at =
the=20
opening, on very heavy volume, and the price of the stock goes up very =
fast.=20
let's say the pivot is 32.50. Since the accumulation is so fast, that=20
instead</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>of being able to buy around the pivot =
point, ones=20
execution might come back 1-2% higher.It looks like to me in this =
instance, that=20
buying before the pivot might be a good idea..Lets say maybe buying =
at=20
32.00 to 32.50. What do you think? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 12, =
2001 6:14=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] stacking =
the odds=20
in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I see there hasn't yet been a =
response to your=20
questions. I was sure this one would draw some =
discussion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As I don't know your own level of =
experience with=20
CANSLIM and investing, I thought I'd answer this from a more generic =
point of=20
view.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) The idea behind waiting for a =
good stock to=20
form a solid base and then break out on volume is to identify that =
magical=20
point at which Demand outstrips Supply and Price is pushed =
higher--essentially=20
the old Supply/Demand curve from economics class. =
Assuming the=20
lion's share of sellers have been exhausted and the =
stock is one=20
that people would wish to own, the theory is that any additional =
demand for=20
the stock will push the price further. In order for the Price to =
continue on,=20
the underlying fundamentals that create value in the company have got =
to be=20
sound. So from this point of view, waiting for the B/O is stacking the =
odds in=20
your favor.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) The statistics on B/O's from =
various=20
technical formations can be measured, but as you notice in our =
discussion=20
the other day, the studies we were looking at in Bulkowski's book make =
no=20
preselection based on fundamentals, as CANSLIM forces us to do. Even =
still,=20
there are still odds that B/O's will fail. It's just the way it=20
is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(3) If you are extremely practiced =
and confident=20
in CANSLIM candidate selection and can build a sound argument for the =
company=20
and its potential, it is possible to make an early entry. Afterall, =
*some*body=20
is buying it on the right side of the cup. Even still, it is less =
risky if the=20
entry comes on a major change in trend or at a point that is very near =
substantial recent support. I'm not advocating this, I think even the =
best of=20
the best get whacked when they try to do this. But more importantly, I =
don't=20
believe that anyone who hasn't established a long running track record =
of=20
successful selection should do this at all. Just way too =
risky.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, December 11, =
2001 6:31=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] stacking =
the odds in=20
my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>one thing that might increase ones =
odds-is=20
buying before the pivot point is reach, if the stock has hugh =
volume, great=20
technicals and fundamentals. what do you all think??? =
david</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>and also</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the volume =
is=20
hugh,<BR>and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, and =
the=20
stock is<BR>setting up to break out of a nice base=20
pattern???<BR></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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