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Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 13:18:29 -0600
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Dangerous Words "Katherine Malm"
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katherine, this was a hypothetical. i didn't look at the PECS chart. =
here is 2 recent real trades that i did. on 11/14/01 i tried to buy KKD =
at the 38.25 pivot point-didn't get executed, the price jumped past the =
pivot point. on 12/5/01 executed ORLY before the pivot point of 34.00 on =
gap up fast trade. i am sorry about about my poor writing, don't have =
much time, have a corporation to run. david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 10:02 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the =
pivot point
David,
I might be misunderstanding your "32.50" pivot as an intended =
hypothetical here. But let me answer based on the PECS chart itself:
(1) The cup starts on 7/23 at at high of $27.45. The correction took =
it as low as $12.50. That's about 54.5%, a little deep, but we'll write =
that off to 9/11. It traveled up the right side of the cup and the high =
of the handle was set on 11/1 at $26.82. There's one troubling high =
volume day in the handle, but let me set that aside for the moment. That =
means that the pivot is set and the buy point is at $26.92. The proper =
B/O is then 11/14 when it gapped open. That day the volume was 1.8m =
shares, about 3.5 times average. What that means is that you're already =
too late at 32 to 32.5. By then, the stock's already moved almost 19% =
from the B/O. An entry here would be an extended entry into the stock. =
An entry here would also have you sitting today on a round trip ride.
(2) So let's focus on the other question, which is "should I buy =
early?" This is probably a great example. Let's say you're watching the =
cup form and you decide to enter as it reaches near the old high on the =
left. Let's say it hasn't yet formed a perfect handle. Let's say on =
about 11/5 or so, only a few days in. Let's enter at the close of the =
day at 25.99. Look what happens the next day. Big down day on big =
volume. Low of the day? 21.69. Down 16.5% from your entry. Close of the =
day? 22.85. Down 12% from your entry. It would be easy to rationalize =
that by saying "But the next day it reversed and later the stock went on =
to breakout, so you would have made money." But how can you know that is =
going to happen on 11/6? You don't, and stop loss rules, if you had =
risked the early entry, would have at least kept you out with a 7 or 8% =
loss. Nearly 1/2 the loss of the low of the day.
Hope that answered the question you had in mind.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 11:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before =
the pivot point
katherine, thank you for your answer. i didn't really ask the =
question right. i am actually talking about a fast market in a stock =
like PECS in the past. The stock has formed a nice cup and handle, the =
technicals and the fundamentals are very good. the stock gaps up at the =
opening, on very heavy volume, and the price of the stock goes up very =
fast. let's say the pivot is 32.50. Since the accumulation is so fast, =
that instead
of being able to buy around the pivot point, ones execution might =
come back 1-2% higher.It looks like to me in this instance, that buying =
before the pivot might be a good idea..Lets say maybe buying at 32.00 =
to 32.50. What do you think? david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 6:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before =
the pivot point
Hi David,
I see there hasn't yet been a response to your questions. I was =
sure this one would draw some discussion.
As I don't know your own level of experience with CANSLIM and =
investing, I thought I'd answer this from a more generic point of view.
(1) The idea behind waiting for a good stock to form a solid base =
and then break out on volume is to identify that magical point at which =
Demand outstrips Supply and Price is pushed higher--essentially the old =
Supply/Demand curve from economics class. Assuming the lion's share of =
sellers have been exhausted and the stock is one that people would wish =
to own, the theory is that any additional demand for the stock will push =
the price further. In order for the Price to continue on, the underlying =
fundamentals that create value in the company have got to be sound. So =
from this point of view, waiting for the B/O is stacking the odds in =
your favor.
(2) The statistics on B/O's from various technical formations can =
be measured, but as you notice in our discussion the other day, the =
studies we were looking at in Bulkowski's book make no preselection =
based on fundamentals, as CANSLIM forces us to do. Even still, there are =
still odds that B/O's will fail. It's just the way it is.
(3) If you are extremely practiced and confident in CANSLIM =
candidate selection and can build a sound argument for the company and =
its potential, it is possible to make an early entry. Afterall, =
*some*body is buying it on the right side of the cup. Even still, it is =
less risky if the entry comes on a major change in trend or at a point =
that is very near substantial recent support. I'm not advocating this, I =
think even the best of the best get whacked when they try to do this. =
But more importantly, I don't believe that anyone who hasn't established =
a long running track record of successful selection should do this at =
all. Just way too risky.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:31 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before =
the pivot point
one thing that might increase ones odds-is buying before the =
pivot point is reach, if the stock has hugh volume, great technicals and =
fundamentals. what do you all think??? david
and also
do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the volume is =
hugh,
and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, and the =
stock is
setting up to break out of a nice base pattern???
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, this was a hypothetical. i =
didn't look=20
at the PECS chart. here is 2 recent real trades that i did. on 11/14/01 =
i tried=20
to buy KKD at the 38.25 pivot point-didn't get executed, the price =
jumped past=20
the pivot point. on 12/5/01 executed ORLY before the pivot point of =
34.00 on gap=20
up fast trade. i am sorry about about my poor writing, don't have much =
time,=20
have a corporation to run. david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 12, =
2001 10:02=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] stacking =
the odds=20
in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I might be misunderstanding your =
"32.50" pivot as=20
an intended hypothetical here. But let me answer based on the =
PECS chart=20
itself:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) The cup starts on 7/23 at at high =
of $27.45.=20
The correction took it as low as $12.50. That's about 54.5%, a little =
deep,=20
but we'll write that off to 9/11. It traveled up the right side of the =
cup and=20
the high of the handle was set on 11/1 at $26.82. There's one =
troubling high=20
volume day in the handle, but let me set that aside for the moment. =
That means=20
that the pivot is set and the <STRONG>buy point is at $26.92</STRONG>. =
The=20
proper B/O is then 11/14 when it gapped open. That day the volume was =
1.8m=20
shares, about 3.5 times average. What that means is that you're =
already too=20
late at 32 to 32.5. By then, the stock's already moved almost =
<STRONG>19% from=20
the B/O</STRONG>. An entry here would be an extended entry into the =
stock. An=20
entry here would also have you sitting today on a round trip=20
ride.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) So let's focus on the other =
question, which=20
is "should I buy early?" This is probably a great example. Let's say =
you're=20
watching the cup form and you decide to enter as it reaches near the =
old high=20
on the left. Let's say it hasn't yet formed a perfect handle. Let's =
say on=20
about 11/5 or so, only a few days in. Let's enter at the close of =
the day=20
at 25.99. Look what happens the next day. Big down day on big =
volume. Low=20
of the day? 21.69. <STRONG>Down 16.5%</STRONG> from your entry. Close =
of the=20
day? 22.85. <STRONG>Down 12%</STRONG> from your entry. It would be =
easy to=20
rationalize that by saying "But the next day it reversed and later the =
stock=20
went on to breakout, so you would have made money." But how can you =
know that=20
is going to happen on 11/6? You don't, and stop loss rules, if you had =
risked=20
the early entry, would have at least kept you out with a 7 or 8% loss. =
Nearly=20
<STRONG>1/2 the loss</STRONG> of the low of the day.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hope that answered the question you =
had in=20
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 12, =
2001=20
11:48 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, thank you for your =
answer. i didn't=20
really ask the question right. i am actually talking about a fast =
market in=20
a stock like PECS in the past. The stock has formed a nice cup =
and=20
handle, the technicals and the fundamentals are very good. the stock =
gaps up=20
at the opening, on very heavy volume, and the price of the stock =
goes up=20
very fast. let's say the pivot is 32.50. Since the accumulation is =
so fast,=20
that instead</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>of being able to buy around the =
pivot point,=20
ones execution might come back 1-2% higher.It looks like to me in =
this=20
instance, that buying before the pivot might be a good idea..Lets =
say maybe=20
buying at 32.00 to 32.50. What do you think? =
david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December =
12, 2001=20
6:14 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I see there hasn't yet been a =
response to=20
your questions. I was sure this one would draw some=20
discussion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As I don't know your own level of =
experience=20
with CANSLIM and investing, I thought I'd answer this from a more =
generic=20
point of view.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) The idea behind waiting for a =
good stock=20
to form a solid base and then break out on volume is to identify =
that=20
magical point at which Demand outstrips Supply and Price is pushed =
higher--essentially the old Supply/Demand curve from=20
economics class. Assuming the lion's share of =
sellers=20
have been exhausted and the stock is one that people would =
wish to=20
own, the theory is that any additional demand for the stock will =
push the=20
price further. In order for the Price to continue on, the =
underlying=20
fundamentals that create value in the company have got to be =
sound. So=20
from this point of view, waiting for the B/O is stacking the odds =
in your=20
favor.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) The statistics on B/O's from =
various=20
technical formations can be measured, but as you notice in =
our=20
discussion the other day, the studies we were looking at in =
Bulkowski's=20
book make no preselection based on fundamentals, as CANSLIM forces =
us to=20
do. Even still, there are still odds that B/O's will fail. It's =
just the=20
way it is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(3) If you are extremely =
practiced and=20
confident in CANSLIM candidate selection and can build a sound =
argument=20
for the company and its potential, it is possible to make an early =
entry.=20
Afterall, *some*body is buying it on the right side of the cup. =
Even=20
still, it is less risky if the entry comes on a major change in =
trend or=20
at a point that is very near substantial recent support. I'm not=20
advocating this, I think even the best of the best get whacked =
when they=20
try to do this. But more importantly, I don't believe that anyone =
who=20
hasn't established a long running track record of successful =
selection=20
should do this at all. Just way too risky.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, December =
11, 2001=20
6:31 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>one thing that might increase =
ones odds-is=20
buying before the pivot point is reach, if the stock has hugh =
volume,=20
great technicals and fundamentals. what do you all think???=20
david</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>and also</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the =
volume is=20
hugh,<BR>and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, =
and the=20
stock is<BR>setting up to break out of a nice base=20
=
pattern???<BR></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><=
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