Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 22:06:35 -0600
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Hi David,
I might just completely misunderstand what you did on the trades, so =
bear with me.=20
On something like KKD, I'm not sure why you wouldn't have had an =
execution with the limit on 11/14, as there was no gap open to go beyond =
your 2% limit. If the trade was on the books for open, it should have =
been executed. But if you placed a limit order during the day, the trade =
might have been fast enough at the time for you to miss out. I'm not a =
fan of limit orders for real time execution. I think if you want to buy =
it, you place the market order and buy it. But again, that's only my =
point of view. Another thing, if the stock is good and strong on B/O and =
has good follow-thru after the B/O in subsequent days, buying up to 5% =
or so of the pivot is of no consequence. A few percent from B/O vs. a =
healthy 50% move is insignificant. But missing the trade because you =
made an arbitrary limit decision is the same as losing money to =
opportunity cost. I understand you're placing the limit on 2% above the =
pivot to play it close to the vest, but I think there's other ways to =
play it close to the vest that would garner profits and control risk at =
the same time. A good stock that wants to move on does it. Looking for =
strong stocks with strong B/O's is really more critical.
As an aside, that reversal day on 11/15 would have had me taking some =
off the table. That new high on low volume 11/19 would have had me out =
altogether. So I think you should be happy you didn't get an execution.
If I understand your ORLY order, you placed a limit order for some price =
under the pivot of 34.00? This one worked out well due to the gap open, =
but you were still buying on 12/5 on the gap open day. What if the gap =
had been much bigger, say 4% above the pivot? Your 2% limit order would =
still have missed it. Again, just something to think about when using =
limit orders.=20
Also, it's still not clear to me whether you're placing live limit =
orders or limit orders the night before for market open. If it's for =
market open, would definitely use buy-stop at a minimum. That way as =
soon as the stock hits your desired buy price, the order becomes a =
market order. If you want to control the upside from the pivot, then =
use a buy-stop-limit. But again, I'd give the stock room in case there's =
a gap. A gap open on a base breakout is almost always a good thing. It's =
especially good if it coincides with an earnings announcement.
And it's not boring to me, anyway!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 6:44 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the =
pivot point
katherine, thanks again for responding. i guess this is kind of boring =
subject matter since no one else has responded. someone yesterday had =
the subject stacking the odds in my favor, so i thought i throw my 2 =
cents worth in, since its important to get in as close to the pivot =
point as possible. yes the KKD trade was a limit order since i did not =
want in over 2% of the pivot point. its important to play it close to =
the vest during this time period. on the ORLY trade, it was a gap up =
heavy volume opening. prices shot up through the pivot. but i had placed =
a limit order before the pivot and got in at a good price. david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 1:32 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before =
the pivot point
>>on 11/14/01 i tried to buy KKD at the 38.25 pivot point-didn't get =
executed
Aside from the due diligence aspect of KKD, I'm guessing that if it =
wasn't executed that you placed a limit order? If so, and you're placing =
trades for market open rather than real time during the day, I think a =
buy-stop-limit is better. But I'm sure there are others on the list will =
have other opinions on this. There was a rather lively debate going on =
about KKD recently, so it might be worth a trip to the archives to see =
what people were saying about this one. In general, KKD had both =
technical and, depending on your point of view, fundamental problems at =
that point.
>>on 12/5/01 executed ORLY before the pivot point of 34.00 on gap up =
fast trade
Forgive me, as I know you were in a hurry when you wrote this, but I =
don't quite understand. Did you place a market order for open? Did you =
place a buy-stop or limit order for market open? Or did you buy earlier =
in the handle before the gap up B/O? I'm not completely sure what it is =
you're asking about this one!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 1:18 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before =
the pivot point
katherine, this was a hypothetical. i didn't look at the PECS =
chart. here is 2 recent real trades that i did. on 11/14/01 i tried to =
buy KKD at the 38.25 pivot point-didn't get executed, the price jumped =
past the pivot point. on 12/5/01 executed ORLY before the pivot point of =
34.00 on gap up fast trade. i am sorry about about my poor writing, =
don't have much time, have a corporation to run. david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 10:02 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying =
before the pivot point
David,
I might be misunderstanding your "32.50" pivot as an intended =
hypothetical here. But let me answer based on the PECS chart itself:
(1) The cup starts on 7/23 at at high of $27.45. The correction =
took it as low as $12.50. That's about 54.5%, a little deep, but we'll =
write that off to 9/11. It traveled up the right side of the cup and the =
high of the handle was set on 11/1 at $26.82. There's one troubling high =
volume day in the handle, but let me set that aside for the moment. That =
means that the pivot is set and the buy point is at $26.92. The proper =
B/O is then 11/14 when it gapped open. That day the volume was 1.8m =
shares, about 3.5 times average. What that means is that you're already =
too late at 32 to 32.5. By then, the stock's already moved almost 19% =
from the B/O. An entry here would be an extended entry into the stock. =
An entry here would also have you sitting today on a round trip ride.
(2) So let's focus on the other question, which is "should I buy =
early?" This is probably a great example. Let's say you're watching the =
cup form and you decide to enter as it reaches near the old high on the =
left. Let's say it hasn't yet formed a perfect handle. Let's say on =
about 11/5 or so, only a few days in. Let's enter at the close of the =
day at 25.99. Look what happens the next day. Big down day on big =
volume. Low of the day? 21.69. Down 16.5% from your entry. Close of the =
day? 22.85. Down 12% from your entry. It would be easy to rationalize =
that by saying "But the next day it reversed and later the stock went on =
to breakout, so you would have made money." But how can you know that is =
going to happen on 11/6? You don't, and stop loss rules, if you had =
risked the early entry, would have at least kept you out with a 7 or 8% =
loss. Nearly 1/2 the loss of the low of the day.
Hope that answered the question you had in mind.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 11:48 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying =
before the pivot point
katherine, thank you for your answer. i didn't really ask the =
question right. i am actually talking about a fast market in a stock =
like PECS in the past. The stock has formed a nice cup and handle, the =
technicals and the fundamentals are very good. the stock gaps up at the =
opening, on very heavy volume, and the price of the stock goes up very =
fast. let's say the pivot is 32.50. Since the accumulation is so fast, =
that instead
of being able to buy around the pivot point, ones execution =
might come back 1-2% higher.It looks like to me in this instance, that =
buying before the pivot might be a good idea..Lets say maybe buying at =
32.00 to 32.50. What do you think? david
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 12, 2001 6:14 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying =
before the pivot point
Hi David,
I see there hasn't yet been a response to your questions. I =
was sure this one would draw some discussion.
As I don't know your own level of experience with CANSLIM =
and investing, I thought I'd answer this from a more generic point of =
view.
(1) The idea behind waiting for a good stock to form a solid =
base and then break out on volume is to identify that magical point at =
which Demand outstrips Supply and Price is pushed higher--essentially =
the old Supply/Demand curve from economics class. Assuming the lion's =
share of sellers have been exhausted and the stock is one that people =
would wish to own, the theory is that any additional demand for the =
stock will push the price further. In order for the Price to continue =
on, the underlying fundamentals that create value in the company have =
got to be sound. So from this point of view, waiting for the B/O is =
stacking the odds in your favor.
(2) The statistics on B/O's from various technical =
formations can be measured, but as you notice in our discussion the =
other day, the studies we were looking at in Bulkowski's book make no =
preselection based on fundamentals, as CANSLIM forces us to do. Even =
still, there are still odds that B/O's will fail. It's just the way it =
is.
(3) If you are extremely practiced and confident in CANSLIM =
candidate selection and can build a sound argument for the company and =
its potential, it is possible to make an early entry. Afterall, =
*some*body is buying it on the right side of the cup. Even still, it is =
less risky if the entry comes on a major change in trend or at a point =
that is very near substantial recent support. I'm not advocating this, I =
think even the best of the best get whacked when they try to do this. =
But more importantly, I don't believe that anyone who hasn't established =
a long running track record of successful selection should do this at =
all. Just way too risky.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: camelot.homes@charter.net=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 6:31 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying =
before the pivot point
one thing that might increase ones odds-is buying before =
the pivot point is reach, if the stock has hugh volume, great technicals =
and fundamentals. what do you all think??? david
and also
do any of you buy before the pivot point , if the volume =
is hugh,
and the technicals and the fundamentals are excellent, and =
the stock is
setting up to break out of a nice base pattern???
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I might just completely misunderstand =
what you did=20
on the trades, so bear with me. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>On something like KKD, I'm not sure why =
you=20
wouldn't have had an execution with the limit on 11/14, as there was no =
gap open=20
to go beyond your 2% limit. If the trade was on the books for open, it =
should=20
have been executed. But if you placed a limit order during the day, the =
trade=20
might have been fast enough at the time for you to miss out. I'm not a =
fan of=20
limit orders for real time execution. I think if you want to buy it, you =
place=20
the market order and buy it. But again, that's only my point of view. =
Another=20
thing, if the stock is good and strong on B/O and has good follow-thru =
after the=20
B/O in subsequent days, buying up to 5% or so of the pivot is of no =
consequence.=20
A few percent from B/O vs. a healthy 50% move is insignificant. But =
missing the=20
trade because you made an arbitrary limit decision is the same as losing =
money=20
to opportunity cost. I understand you're placing the limit on 2% above =
the pivot=20
to play it close to the vest, but I think there's other ways to play it =
close to=20
the vest that would garner profits and control risk at the same time. A =
good=20
stock that wants to move on does it. Looking for strong stocks with =
strong B/O's=20
is really more critical.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As an aside, that reversal day on 11/15 =
would have=20
had me taking some off the table. That new high on low volume 11/19 =
would have=20
had me out altogether. So I think you should be happy you didn't get an=20
execution.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>If I understand your ORLY order, you =
placed a limit=20
order for some price under the pivot of 34.00? This one worked out well =
due to=20
the gap open, but you were still buying on 12/5 on the gap open day. =
What if the=20
gap had been much bigger, say 4% above the pivot? Your 2% limit order =
would=20
still have missed it. Again, just something to think about when using =
limit=20
orders. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Also, it's still not clear to me =
whether you're=20
placing live limit orders or limit orders the night before for market =
open. If=20
it's for market open, would definitely use buy-stop at a minimum. That=20
way as soon as the stock hits your desired buy price, the =
order=20
becomes a market order. If you want to control the upside from the =
pivot,=20
then use a buy-stop-limit. But again, I'd give the stock room in case =
there's a=20
gap. A gap open on a base breakout is almost always a good thing. It's=20
especially good if it coincides with an earnings =
announcement.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>And it's not boring to me, =
anyway!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 12, =
2001 6:44=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] stacking =
the odds=20
in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, thanks again for =
responding. i guess=20
this is kind of boring subject matter since no one else has responded. =
someone=20
yesterday had the subject stacking the odds in my favor, so i thought =
i throw=20
my 2 cents worth in, since its important to get in as close to the =
pivot point=20
as possible. yes the KKD trade was a limit order since i did not want =
in over=20
2% of the pivot point. its important to play it close to the vest =
during this=20
time period. on the ORLY trade, it was a gap up heavy volume opening. =
prices=20
shot up through the pivot. but i had placed a limit order before the =
pivot and=20
got in at a good price. david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 12, =
2001 1:32=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>>>on 11/14/01 i tried to buy =
KKD at the=20
38.25 pivot point-didn't get executed</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Aside from the due diligence aspect =
of KKD, I'm=20
guessing that if it wasn't executed that you placed a limit order? =
If so,=20
and you're placing trades for market open rather than real time =
during the=20
day, I think a buy-stop-limit is better. But I'm sure there are =
others on=20
the list will have other opinions on this. There was a rather lively =
debate=20
going on about KKD recently, so it might be worth a trip to the =
archives to=20
see what people were saying about this one. In general, KKD had both =
technical and, depending on your point of view, fundamental problems =
at that=20
point.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>>>on 12/5/01 executed ORLY =
before the=20
pivot point of 34.00 on gap up fast trade</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Forgive me, as I know you were in a =
hurry when=20
you wrote this, but I don't quite understand. Did you place a market =
order=20
for open? Did you place a buy-stop or limit order for market open? =
Or did=20
you buy earlier in the handle before the gap up B/O? I'm not =
completely sure=20
what it is you're asking about this one!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December =
12, 2001=20
1:18 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, this was a =
hypothetical. i didn't=20
look at the PECS chart. here is 2 recent real trades that i did. =
on=20
11/14/01 i tried to buy KKD at the 38.25 pivot point-didn't get =
executed,=20
the price jumped past the pivot point. on 12/5/01 executed ORLY =
before the=20
pivot point of 34.00 on gap up fast trade. i am sorry about about =
my poor=20
writing, don't have much time, have a corporation to run.=20
david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December =
12, 2001=20
10:02 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking the=20
odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I might be misunderstanding =
your "32.50"=20
pivot as an intended hypothetical here. But let me answer =
based on=20
the PECS chart itself:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) The cup starts on 7/23 at =
at high of=20
$27.45. The correction took it as low as $12.50. That's about =
54.5%, a=20
little deep, but we'll write that off to 9/11. It traveled up =
the right=20
side of the cup and the high of the handle was set on 11/1 at =
$26.82.=20
There's one troubling high volume day in the handle, but let me =
set that=20
aside for the moment. That means that the pivot is set and the=20
<STRONG>buy point is at $26.92</STRONG>. The proper B/O is then =
11/14=20
when it gapped open. That day the volume was 1.8m shares, about =
3.5=20
times average. What that means is that you're already too late =
at 32 to=20
32.5. By then, the stock's already moved almost <STRONG>19% from =
the=20
B/O</STRONG>. An entry here would be an extended entry into the =
stock.=20
An entry here would also have you sitting today on a round trip=20
ride.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) So let's focus on the other =
question,=20
which is "should I buy early?" This is probably a great example. =
Let's=20
say you're watching the cup form and you decide to enter as it =
reaches=20
near the old high on the left. Let's say it hasn't yet formed a =
perfect=20
handle. Let's say on about 11/5 or so, only a few days in. =
Let's=20
enter at the close of the day at 25.99. Look what happens the =
next day.=20
Big down day on big volume. Low of the day? 21.69. =
<STRONG>Down=20
16.5%</STRONG> from your entry. Close of the day? 22.85. =
<STRONG>Down=20
12%</STRONG> from your entry. It would be easy to rationalize =
that by=20
saying "But the next day it reversed and later the stock went on =
to=20
breakout, so you would have made money." But how can you know =
that is=20
going to happen on 11/6? You don't, and stop loss rules, if you =
had=20
risked the early entry, would have at least kept you out with a =
7 or 8%=20
loss. Nearly <STRONG>1/2 the loss</STRONG> of the low of the=20
day.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hope that answered the question =
you had in=20
mind.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, =
December 12,=20
2001 11:48 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
stacking=20
the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>katherine, thank you for your =
answer. i=20
didn't really ask the question right. i am actually talking =
about a=20
fast market in a stock like PECS in the past. The stock =
has=20
formed a nice cup and handle, the technicals and the =
fundamentals are=20
very good. the stock gaps up at the opening, on very heavy =
volume, and=20
the price of the stock goes up very fast. let's say the pivot =
is=20
32.50. Since the accumulation is so fast, that =
instead</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>of being able to buy around =
the pivot=20
point, ones execution might come back 1-2% higher.It looks =
like to me=20
in this instance, that buying before the pivot might be a good =
idea..Lets say maybe buying at 32.00 to 32.50. What do =
you=20
think? david</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, =
December 12,=20
2001 6:14 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: =
[CANSLIM] stacking=20
the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi David,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I see there hasn't yet been =
a response=20
to your questions. I was sure this one would draw some=20
discussion.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>As I don't know your own =
level of=20
experience with CANSLIM and investing, I thought I'd answer =
this=20
from a more generic point of view.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(1) The idea behind waiting =
for a good=20
stock to form a solid base and then break out on volume is =
to=20
identify that magical point at which Demand outstrips Supply =
and=20
Price is pushed higher--essentially the =
old Supply/Demand curve=20
from economics class. Assuming the lion's share =
of =20
sellers have been exhausted and the stock is one that =
people=20
would wish to own, the theory is that any additional demand =
for the=20
stock will push the price further. In order for the Price to =
continue on, the underlying fundamentals that create value =
in the=20
company have got to be sound. So from this point of view, =
waiting=20
for the B/O is stacking the odds in your favor.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(2) The statistics on B/O's =
from=20
various technical formations can be measured, but as =
you notice=20
in our discussion the other day, the studies we were looking =
at in=20
Bulkowski's book make no preselection based on fundamentals, =
as=20
CANSLIM forces us to do. Even still, there are still odds =
that B/O's=20
will fail. It's just the way it is.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>(3) If you are extremely =
practiced and=20
confident in CANSLIM candidate selection and can build a =
sound=20
argument for the company and its potential, it is possible =
to make=20
an early entry. Afterall, *some*body is buying it on the =
right side=20
of the cup. Even still, it is less risky if the entry comes =
on a=20
major change in trend or at a point that is very near =
substantial=20
recent support. I'm not advocating this, I think even the =
best of=20
the best get whacked when they try to do this. But more =
importantly,=20
I don't believe that anyone who hasn't established a long =
running=20
track record of successful selection should do this at all. =
Just way=20
too risky.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; =
font-color: black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dcamelot.homes@charter.net=20
=
href=3D"mailto:camelot.homes@charter.net">camelot.homes@charter.net</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, =
December 11,=20
2001 6:31 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
stacking=20
the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>one thing that might =
increase ones=20
odds-is buying before the pivot point is reach, if the =
stock has=20
hugh volume, great technicals and fundamentals. what do =
you all=20
think??? david</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>and also</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>do any of you buy before the pivot point , if =
the=20
volume is hugh,<BR>and the technicals and the fundamentals =
are=20
excellent, and the stock is<BR>setting up to break out of =
a nice=20
base=20
=
pattern???<BR></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE><=
/BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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