Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
Date: Fri, 14 Dec 2001 14:14:21 -0600
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Mistake? I make 'em 10 times a day, so I'm no stranger! There are far better
technicians than I on the list, and hopefully, they will add their point of
view on this one.

BREL is just terribly hard to read. If I look at it on a daily chart, I can
count the weeks and surmise a handle, but if you step back and look at it in
weekly mode, this consolidation is just action in a sudden uptrend. The
thing that also bothers me, is that even if you were to look at it as a cup
with no handle, the volume is too high 11/29 to 12/5 compared to action
after that. Normally the preferred volume pattern looks a lot like the cup
itself. High on the right, low at the bottom, high on the right. If there's
a handle, volume dries up.

When something is technically difficult for me, I rely on other tools in my
bag. Industry analysis, fundamentals, state of the market, etc. I suppose if
anything, that Mr. M has me in "high alert" mode so any signs of failure or
iffiness on something and I take a pass. At least you know my bias on
evaluating a chart like BREL right now. I have other indicators that come
from my software that also tell me caution is warranted. My relative timing
on a stock (RT) goes from 0 to 2 and BREL's been hanging out at extreme
readings (1.85) for quite a while. By itself, not something to worry about,
but in combination with a declining relative value (RV) reading, that raises
red flags for me. So, that doesn't really answer your question, but it
should explain why I don't think this one can continue. But, we'll see. A
strong close on the day, a supportive market, good follow-through in
upcoming days would say I'm all wrong. And that happens all the time!

Katherine
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <camelot.homes@charter.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 1:38 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL


> katherine, sorry i made a mistake. i believe WON mentions in both of his
> books that the C&H pattern should be a minimum of 7 weeks long-isn't this
a
> C&H pattern? of course, if BREL doesn't really have a handle, according to
> Mr. B's book, after the B/O point this pattern possibly has a lower
failure
> rate and a higher rate of return. am i'm wrong? david
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 12:45 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
>
>
> > No, the handle is not part of the base. It is a separate consolidation
> that
> > shakes out the last of the weak holders. So that means, BREL has a 5-1/2
> > week base and a handle slightly longer than a week.According to WON, its
> > duration should be proportional to the length and depth of the base
> itself.
> >
> > No, I haven't posted my sell rules because these things are different
for
> > each person depending on their experience, risk tolerance and goals. I
> > started with WON, pared it down, cleared up the fuzzy ones, then added a
> few
> > from my own experience. But I'd say that if a trader doesn't have
> definitive
> > rules that can be written down on a list, emotion will always take over
> when
> > it's time to sell. And *that* is the way most people lose big money!
> >
> > Katherine
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <camelot.homes@charter.net>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 12:40 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> >
> >
> > > katherine, i thought WON included the handle as part of the base.
also,
> if
> > i
> > > count correctly, with the base starting on 10/26/01, it's 7 weeks long
> as
> > of
> > > today, the minimum according to WON for a C&H base. also, have you
> posted
> > > your sell rules? thanks, david
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 12:17 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> > >
> > >
> > > > Yes. That would be my read. I think that B. would've considered this
> > part
> > > of
> > > > the cup. But I don't know that for sure without rereading the
chapter
> > > > closely. The good news is, however, if a stock were to form a high
> > handle
> > > > where the right lip was higher than the left lip, that would mean
the
> > > > failure rate out of the pattern drops.
> > > >
> > > > But all that aside, when I look at the BREL chart, I see the left
side
> > of
> > > > the cup at $24.90 on 10/26. I see the high of the handle at $33.35
on
> > 12/5
> > > > and I see 6 days in the handle and a B/O today. The problem I have
is
> > that
> > > > this makes a cup only 5-1/2 weeks long and that is too short to be
> > valid.
> > > 7
> > > > weeks is minimum. On my sell rule checklist, if a stock near its
highs
> > > > breaks out of a base
> > > > that is too short, it gets the axe.
> > > >
> > > > Katherine
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: <camelot.homes@charter.net>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:52 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > katherine, i'm sorry i don't really understand your answer. does
it
> > > > > mean(maybe in your opinion) that since the price is cranking above
> the
> > > > pivot
> > > > > that it isn`t really a handle. and BREL might have done that in
this
> > > case?
> > > > > david
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> > > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:27 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > >>. it looks to me like a
> > > > > > > slightly upward handle which kind of concerned me. ...what
does
> > Mr.
> > > B
> > > > > > > say about this?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > You know, off the top of my head, I don't remember that he
> mentioned
> > > > > upward
> > > > > > sloping handles. He did say that it didn't matter statistically
> > > whether
> > > > or
> > > > > > not they were downward sloping. So I'm going to guess that he's
> > > implying
> > > > > > that it shouldn't crank up above the pivot, or it's not really a
> > > handle.
> > > > > > But, that's just an opinion, not a fact.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Katherine
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: <camelot.homes@charter.net>
> > > > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 11:09 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > tim and dave, got into BREL early this morning . it looks to
me
> > like
> > > a
> > > > > > > slightly upward handle which kind of concerned me. Katherine
> what
> > > does
> > > > > Mr.
> > > > > > B
> > > > > > > say about this? anyother thoughts from others? Andreas, great
> > saying
> > > > > from
> > > > > > > Goethe. david
> > > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > > From: "Dave" <drubin@i-2000.com>
> > > > > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > > > > Sent: Friday, December 14, 2001 10:01 AM
> > > > > > > Subject: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Doesn't the upward-sloping handle on BREL concern you?
> > > > > > > >
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