Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2001 22:18:42 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): [CANSLIM] from IBD "Patrick Wahl"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_007A_01C185B6.74806C40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable EARNINGS WARNING SEASON It's that time of the quarter again, and the news releases on what to = expect from corporate America for the current quarter are starting to = roll in, and will heat up next week. I get an almost daily email this = time of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall = impression is that more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts = than are lowering expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the = 3rd qtr, earnings for the S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over = year in a decade. For the 4th quarter, expectations are for a drop of = 19%, better but still not good. But with both INTC and CSCO saying nice = things, as well as PG, even MRK's forecast of no growth for 2002 fades = in importance as it is company related more than sector related.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN What can I say? This second largest economy remains mired in government = inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains on the verge = of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of the = largest banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which = promptly filed bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start = cutting off corps with whom they have long standing business = relationships. On Thursday, the banking index (now at new 3 year lows) = led the Nikkei to losses that wiped out what was made on Wednesday. = Everyone seems to be worried, or even panicking, except the government = who this week pulled off a successful devaluation of the yen, moving it = to a three year low against the US dollar. While this may temporarily = strengthen their exports, it will also raise the cost of imports, = leading to more inflation during their recession. And it will also = likely cause other devaluations of currency throughout Asia as those = countries try to hold onto market share. China and Malaysia may be hurt = the worst by this, as they have pegged their currency to the dollar, and = will try to defend it. Ultimately, this could lead to another financial = crisis similar to 1997 when Thailand started the domino effect. But with = Japan, the biggest economy in Asia, starting the process, it could = happen a lot faster this time.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- FED CUT The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis points), it was that they = left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of another 25 BP cut = at the January meeting. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ON THE ECONOMY No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers couldn't = keep up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce = buying decisions. As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to = 3.7% (expected was a 3.1% drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October = (almost all on car sales). Still, that's nearly a 3% net for two months, = guess we'll take that, even if Christmas sales at the retailers appear = so far to be slower than anticipated. But the PPI (Producer Price Index) = also fell more than expected, to 0.6% (expected was a drop to 0.3 or = 0.4%), down further from October, hinting that inflation continues to be = a no show.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this weekend As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I see other = formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say so. ACS - LLUR ACTN - RAT LLUR AGM - B3 ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume BIOA - RAT LLUR BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4 BOKF - LLUR BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday BVF - RAT LLUR BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, unusual pattern, = I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, stronger c&h = formation CACI - LLUR CVBF - B8 DLX - LLUR DNB - LLUR FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced FRED - LLUR GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower volume GAN - CAT LLUR GFF - CAT LLUR HRB - B2 ISLE - B2 ITRI - CAT LLUR JCI - B5 JNC - LLUR KSS - high handle MATW - B3 MIMS - LLUR NFI - LLUR PHC - B10, tight range RAH - LLUR RKT - base on the handle, second handle?? RYAAY - B5 RYAN - LLUR THC - B4 TIER - LLUR Happy Hunting, God Bless America, and all its military people =20 Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_007A_01C185B6.74806C40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" = http-equiv=3DContent-Type> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>EARNINGS WARNING = SEASON</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>It's that time of the quarter again, and the news = releases on=20 what to expect from corporate America for the current quarter are = starting to=20 roll in, and will heat up next week. I get an almost daily email = this time=20 of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall impression = is that=20 more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts than are lowering=20 expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the 3rd qtr, earnings = for the=20 S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over year in a decade. For = the 4th=20 quarter, expectations are for a drop of 19%, better but still not good. = But with=20 both INTC and CSCO saying nice things, as well as PG, even MRK's = forecast of no=20 growth for 2002 fades in importance as it is company related more than = sector=20 related.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>What can I say? This second largest economy remains = mired in=20 government inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains on = the=20 verge of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of the = largest=20 banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which promptly filed=20 bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start cutting off = corps with=20 whom they have long standing business relationships. On Thursday, the = banking=20 index (now at new 3 year lows) led the Nikkei to losses that wiped out = what was=20 made on Wednesday. Everyone seems to be worried, or even panicking, = except the=20 government who this week pulled off a successful devaluation of the yen, = moving=20 it to a three year low against the US dollar. While this may temporarily = strengthen their exports, it will also raise the cost of imports, = leading to=20 more inflation during their recession. And it will also likely cause = other=20 devaluations of currency throughout Asia as those countries try to hold = onto=20 market share. China and Malaysia may be hurt the worst by this, as they = have=20 pegged their currency to the dollar, and will try to defend it. = Ultimately, this=20 could lead to another financial crisis similar to 1997 when Thailand = started the=20 domino effect. But with Japan, the biggest economy in Asia, = starting the=20 process, it could happen a lot faster this time.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>FED CUT</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis points), = it was=20 that they left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of another = 25 BP=20 cut at the January meeting.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>ON THE ECONOMY</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers = couldn't keep=20 up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce buying = decisions.=20 As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to 3.7% (expected was = a 3.1%=20 drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October (almost all on car sales). = Still, that's=20 nearly a 3% net for two months, guess we'll take that, even if Christmas = sales=20 at the retailers appear so far to be slower than anticipated. But the = PPI=20 (Producer Price Index) also fell more than expected, to 0.6% (expected = was a=20 drop to 0.3 or 0.4%), down further from October, hinting that inflation=20 continues to be a no show.=20 <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this = weekend</DIV> <DIV>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I see = other=20 formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say = so.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACS - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ACTN - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>AGM - B3</DIV> <DIV>ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume</DIV> <DIV>BIOA - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4</DIV> <DIV>BOKF - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday</DIV> <DIV>BVF - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, = unusual=20 pattern, I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, = stronger=20 c&h formation</DIV> <DIV>CACI - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CVBF - B8</DIV> <DIV>DLX - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>DNB - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced</DIV> <DIV>FRED - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower volume</DIV> <DIV>GAN - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GFF - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HRB - B2</DIV> <DIV>ISLE - B2</DIV> <DIV>ITRI - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>JCI - B5</DIV> <DIV>JNC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>KSS - high handle</DIV> <DIV>MATW - B3</DIV> <DIV>MIMS - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>NFI - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PHC - B10, tight range</DIV> <DIV>RAH - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>RKT - base on the handle, second handle??</DIV> <DIV>RYAAY - B5</DIV> <DIV>RYAN - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>THC - B4</DIV> <DIV>TIER - LLUR</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>God Bless America, and all its military people</DIV> <DIV></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_007A_01C185B6.74806C40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Author): [CANSLIM] from IBD "Patrick Wahl"
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]