AW: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?

From: Andreas Himmelreich <judgejimmy@web.de>
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?
Date: Mon, 17 Dec 2001 14:40:22 +0100

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Very good discussion point:

But my Industry Analysis that I am doing right know (its a hell of a work 
to backtest, so it will take some weeks until I have statistical 
significance)
shows that non Canslim Stocks within an IS Group have less upspike in case 
of an uptrend of the IG (PECS is a good example for this).

But what I really have to challenge is to wait for a breakout from a base 
of an individual stock
My Intermediate results show, that this is not neccesary at all, if the 
market is OK and
the IG has a strong uptrend, and itself has a breakout from a Price Base 
and or Relative Strength base, it might be OK to buy at in the CUP. But
this is just first impression and we better wait until I have some 
statistical significance.

Some more stuff from my industries theorie:

Market drives Industries, Industries drive individual stocks within this 
IG.It seems as if the Industry can set up a bull market its stocks, that 
can
even go against a flat or even moderate stage of a bear market (how else 
can TARO spike up in 2000 and 2001?).
At the end of the (intermediate) Bear Market (at least this september) 
there are only very less ore no Industries which can hold up against the 
whole
market. In this stage "odd" industries like Gold and Stuff win relative 
Strenght but lose pricewise, so they are not an alternative but a good
timing indicator.

The beauty is: You can ride Industry Group Bull Markets much longer then 
Bull Markets for a whole Market.

Building and Construction is hip right now, in some weeks this IG breaks 
down, another emerges and you just jump from wave to wave.

The interesting thing: The good stocks itself of an IG can lean against an 
IG as well, so they hold up longer then the whole IG, enough time
to pull the trigger and jump to another IG.

Futher more you can avoid fail Breakouts --> If the trend is not up in the 
IG or even Breaking down, do not take the shot, because usually
the breakout will fail (there are exeptions like BPRX).

As I said, it is still a not proven theorie, but the more I reasearch, the 
more it looks the above statements can make a lot of money ...

See you

Andreas

> -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> Von:	esetser [SMTP:esetser@covad.net]
> Gesendet am:	Sunday, December 16, 2001 10:09 PM
> An:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Betreff:	Re: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?
>
> I believe the fundamental analysis in CANSLIM increases the odds of 
gains,
> both in the short term, and in the longer term.  This is the advantage 
that
> CANSLIM should give us over other momentum approaches, better odds and
> longer advances.  At least that is my view, and my goal.
>
> At 10:12 AM 12/16/01 -0600, you wrote:
> >    Proposed:   If a typical CANSLIM/Intermediate term move in a  stock
> >lasts only a few weeks, and in good markets, only a few months, why 
bother
> >selecting portfolio candidates using any sort of fundamental analysis?
> >Returns  in this time period are strictly based on price movement and 
can
> >be maximized  based on technical indicators and price/volume action 
alone.
> > Thoughts pro/con?   Katherine
>
>
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