Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re:Float Analysis-BREL/INVN (was: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals?)
Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 12:24:16 -0600
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL "Katherine Malm"
Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] INTV (was ALLY) John Maycock
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]
Eric, This is very enlightening. BREL is a very good case study for many reasons. In my own work, I look for minimum forward growth rates to qualify something for due diligence. It must also meet minimum price and ADV, however. So, even though something like BREL has the growth rate, until 10/18, it did not have the ADV. (I use >=90000, Price>=$10) What is quite interesting is that I can look back and compare the daily volume to the ADV as it was building up to its original break out of the snooze zone on 10/2. That means that your float analysis would have identified this before it showed up in my basic criteria scans. I'll have to see if there's a way to do this from within my own software without resorting to other indicators. From a fundamental point of view, when these things crop up after a major breakout like BREL, they will catch my attention in a hurry. I started DD on BREL shortly after 10/18. There were some fundamental issues that raised red flags, but I put it in the "interesting enough to watch category." In other words, there were enough positives in the way it supported greater macrothemes to continue the DD and the technical watch. I would think the new smallpox contract from the gov't drew more eyes to the stock, so I am not surprised that it behaved the way it did from 10/26 to today. A pure technician wouldn't have cared either way and would have played the rise on the right side of the cup. I think that as a CANSLIM play, these kinds of things are better played after the smoke clears. Patience? Risk control? Again, a personal matter. In a more general way, your float analysis gives better interpretation to the short term technical action and I find that extremely useful. Thank you. Katherine - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Tangen, Eric" <tangene@tycoelectronics.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2001 11:24 AM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals? > Both BREL and INVN have gone from 200+ days for the float to turnover to > less than 20 in a very, very short period of time. INVN is probably less > than 5 right now...so an entry you won't get stopped out at might be a 6 day > low or a 6 day close...just something to think about. > > For INVN, the delta in float turnover occured immediately on the day the > market opened after the attack. > > For BREL, this occurred from 10/8-10/12. > > float turnover = sum up volume from today back. Stop when that sum equals > the float. Record the number of days it took for this sum to equal the float > as the float turnover for today. > > (Let's wait and see if any of this shows up in Investor Corner.) > > Eric Tangen > > > > <snip> > > Just look at INVN recently. Did it make sense that it went parabolic? I > don't think so. Did it continue to go up in price *despite* the fact that > early in that parabolic rise we thought the probability that it could > continue the move for another week was very low? Did it make sense for BREL > to break out of that 7 week > C&H a few days ago? > <snip> > Katherine > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Re: BREL "Katherine Malm"
Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] INTV (was ALLY) John Maycock
Articles sorted by: [Date]
[Author]
[Subject]