Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: John Maycock <jmvan@shaw.ca>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] INTV (was ALLY)
Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2001 07:17:39 -0800
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Hi Tom:
In terms of the macro picture, the issue with the telecom industry is that
analysts are expecting sequential year-over-year declines in capital
expenditure from 2001 through to 2005 from the major carriers. This is North
America specific, Asia will be better, Europe probably similar. In the face
of reduced expenditures, in general, it will mean reduced revenues for the
industry suppliers. This is like looking at a market index and saying that
all stocks will decline because the index is dropping. We know that it is
not true, but all stocks in the industry will have to face the falling tide
and it will take time to sort out.
Yesterday, JDSU announced that they were pushing their horizon for a
recovery (defined as rising earnings) out to Q2 2002 from December, maybe
that news had an effect. Were there any technical signs that this might
happen to INTV? Is there anything an investor could have done?
Regards
John
Ps. I am having email delays. My email is taking up to 2 days to get to its
destination, so this was sent at 7:13am PST Wednesday.
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 10:12 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY
Tim,
By end of day, CACI trading range (both hi and low) were below yesterday.
And even tho it closed up a little, volume was down, and well under ADV.
Second thoughts at this point, in hindsight? Is it topping out short term?
On INTV, serious damage on nearly 9X ADV, any reason? A serious "tail" in
Katherine's terms. I have noticed a number of other telecom stocks with
negative earnings forecasts for year 2002, surprising given the weak
earnings results in 2001. Is there something fundamental going on in the
industry with respect to the upcoming year?
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net <mailto:stkguru@netside.net>
AIM: TexWorley
- ----- Original Message -----
From: Tim Fisher <mailto:Tim@orerockon.com>
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2001 11:48 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] ALLY
B/O this AM. Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I
own both. INTV: toilet-bound.
Tim Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com
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<div class=Section1>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Hi Tom:<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>In terms
of the macro picture, the issue with the telecom industry is that analysts are
expecting sequential year-over-year declines in capital expenditure from 2001
through to 2005 from the major carriers. This is North America specific, Asia
will be better, Europe probably similar. In the face of reduced expenditures,
in general, it will mean reduced revenues for the industry suppliers. This is
like looking at a market index and saying that all stocks will decline because the
index is dropping. We know that it is not true, but all stocks in the industry
will have to face the falling tide and it will take time to sort out.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Yesterday,
JDSU announced that they were pushing their horizon for a recovery (defined as
rising earnings) out to Q2 2002 from December, maybe that news had an effect. Were
there any technical signs that this might happen to INTV? Is there anything an
investor could have done?<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Regards<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>John<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Ps. I am
having email delays. My email is taking up to 2 days to get to its destination,
so this was sent at 7:13am PST Wednesday.<o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><span class=EmailStyle17><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></span></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>-----Original
Message-----<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<b><span
style='font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Tom Worley<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Tuesday, December 11, 2001
10:12 PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> canslim@lists.xmission.com<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [CANSLIM] ALLY</span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span
style='font-size:12.0pt'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>Tim,</span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>By end of
day, CACI trading range (both hi and low) were below yesterday. And even tho it
closed up a little, volume was down, and well under ADV. </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>Second
thoughts at this point, in hindsight? Is it topping out short term?</span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=2 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;color:black'>On INTV,
serious damage on nearly 9X ADV, any reason? A serious "tail" in
Katherine's terms. I have noticed a number of other telecom stocks with
negative earnings forecasts for year 2002, surprising given the weak earnings
results in 2001. Is there something fundamental going on in the industry with
respect to the upcoming year?</span></font><font color=black><span
style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'> </span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>Tom Worley<br>
<a href="mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</a><br>
AIM: TexWorley</span></font><font color=black><span style='color:black;
mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div style='border:none;border-left:solid black 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>-----
Original Message ----- </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;background:#E4E4E4;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>
<div style='font-color:black'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href="mailto:Tim@orerockon.com" title="Tim@orerockon.com">Tim Fisher</a> </span></font></div>
<font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:
Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>To:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> <a
href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a>
</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'> Tuesday, December 11,
2001 11:48 AM</span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;
font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></font></b><font size=2 color=black
face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black'>
[CANSLIM] ALLY </span></font><font size=2 color=black face=Arial><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'><![if !supportEmptyParas]> <![endif]></span></font><font
color=black><span style='color:black;mso-color-alt:windowtext'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal style='mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:39.75pt;border:none;mso-border-left-alt:solid black 1.5pt;
padding:0in;mso-padding-alt:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt;color:black'>B/O this AM.
Also CACI looking good altho this one is extended. Discl: I <br>
own both. INTV: toilet-bound.<br>
<br>
Tim Fisher<br>
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site<br>
Pacific Fishery Biologists Information<br>
<a href="mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com">mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com</a><br>
WWW <a href="http://OreRockOn.com">http://OreRockOn.com</a><br>
<br>
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Next Article (by Author): Re:Float Analysis-BREL/INVN (was: [CANSLIM] Devil's Advocate: Why bother with fundamentals?) "Katherine Malm"
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