Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Gene Ricci <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Point of View: John Adair
Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2001 21:23:27 -0600
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John, please take pity and use a larger font and black color.=20
Your posts are very difficult to read.
Thanks for your consideration,
Gene
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Adair=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2001 7:14 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?
Hi Katherine,
I like your reply it shows a very disciplined approach to investing. =
How long have you been at investing? I assume you are retired and =
fulltime investing for the most part.
By the way thanks for suggesting Bulkowski.
=20
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, December 19, 2001 4:02 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?
=20
Hi John,
=20
>>The last paragraph seems indicate you do use fundamentals and =
sector rotation for your screening. Then you use total technical =
analysis from that point including exits. Correct?<<
=20
That is for the most part correct, though industry analysis (sector =
rotation) enters in both screening and in buy/sell decisions. I look for =
something with a fundamental story and if I like it, I watch it until =
the industry and technical analysis stars align. As part of my buy =
review process, I look at the action in all players in the industry. =
This will help ensure that the industry is not topping out, even though =
the buy candidate looks technically sound. I also look at industry =
players to be sure that moves off the bottom show that at least 2 strong =
stocks are moving. One alone, and I wait. Once I own a stock, part of my =
sell rules include continued review of other stocks in the industry. If =
they begin breaking down, but my holding is strong, it goes on warning. =
If other technical warning signs kick in, out it goes. My entries and =
exits are definitely driven by technicals. There are times, however, =
where fundamentals do play a hand in my sell rules:
=20
(1) This is really a combined fundamental/technical sell rule: Sell if =
a stock gaps down on earnings news. I don't have a perfect example of =
this from my own recent sells, but one that is close. I owned IRF =
earlier in the year. In early June it started flashing all sorts of =
technical warnings. On 6/11 it gapped down with no explanation. That was =
enough for me, as I knew earnings were upcoming. I was out on the 12th. =
On 6/15 it gapped down on earnings news. If I hadn't already sold, I =
would have within a day or two of the gap. The day or two lag is only so =
that I can catch the last little bounce before it gives up the ghost. =
There are plenty more examples better than this one where the stock went =
on to drop into oblivion, but I can't think of one off the top of my =
head.
=20
(2) If fundamentals are deteriorating. This is a WON rule. That is, if =
the earnings growth begins decelerating 2 quarters in a row, something's =
up. This is what prompted me to begin scaling out of DELL in early 99. =
Technicals were also getting iffy, but the earnings news clinched it. I =
was out completely by Fall of 99. Absolutely everybody I knew thought =
I'd lost it. That doesn't mean I don't think DELL's a great company. I =
do. It just means my sell rules worked when it mattered.
=20
(3) Financial shenanigans. There's just no way to know how things will =
look when the smoke clears. You can get an example like TYC where it =
turns out to be ok. Then you can get a MSTR or ENE or LU. I just don't =
think the odds favor these things working out for the best, so I'd =
rather watch the dust clear from the sidelines. The latest is TTWO. I =
haven't ever owned it, but I can't wait to see what happens.
=20
=20
>>If that's correct then would you begin to identify some of the =
patterns in the stocks you evaluate. I have purchased Bulkowski and =
trying to make sense out of it. The patterns never seem to match his =
diagrams.<<
=20
I wrestle with technicals every day. I wouldn't say I'm the best =
person on the list to address this question, as there are so many others =
here who are very good technicians. I can identify the plain and simple, =
but if I can't read it I will rely on industry analysis, technicals in =
other players, or will just write it off as "too hard to read--wait and =
see what happens." This happened recently while I was watching JEC. I =
wasn't considering it for a buy, but was watching it for other reasons. =
I just couldn't figure out the chart and it' the reason why I posted the =
question to the list. Strangely enough, JEC showed up in an Investor's =
Corner the other day. Imagine that.
=20
Katherine
=20
=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: John Adair=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2001 7:35 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Point of View: Why bother with fundamentals?
=20
Hi Katherine
I read with interest your procedure The last paragraph seems indicate =
you do use fundamentals and sector rotation for your screening. Then you =
use total technical analysis from that point including exits. Correct?
If that's correct then would you begin to identify some of the =
patterns in the stocks you evaluate. I have purchased Bulkowski and =
trying to make sense out of it. The patterns never seem to match his =
diagrams.
John A
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
=20
<snip>
The point is, a company can have the potential to be a great company, =
but if there is no demand for the stock, the price will not go up. Or, =
sometimes, the price of a stock of a seeming worthless company will go =
up. Until it doesn't. Every once in a while you will watch a very good =
company become a great company and the stock will go up, and up, and up, =
and up. Until it doesn't. All you need to know is market history to know =
that this is true. You don't need exhaustive statistical studies. You =
can find example after example. But can you find a good company that is =
underowned or undiscovered and has the potential to become a great =
company? Can you determine when demand is beginning to overwhelm supply =
so that you can buy it at a good price? Can you tell if there is =
continued demand for it that drives up the price? Can you determine when =
is becoming overowned and sell it for as much as possible? Can you make =
money on it? I believe you can. Fundamentals tell the story of a good =
company. Due diligence tells the story of potential. Technicals tell the =
story of supply and demand. CANSLIM has all of these in its toolbag. How =
you chose to use them is your choice.
=20
Here is my answer to this question. As you can see, it is different =
than everyone else's.
=20
Narrowing down the universe of candidates based on excellent =
fundamentals and company/industry potential allows me to ride price =
movement with a bonus. If the market is healthy and this stock is not =
yet "discovered" and the company fulfills its potential, I may be able =
to ride it much longer than the intermediate term. This stock could =
easily become the next DELL, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, or HD. Fundamentals, well =
considered, put the odds for selecting a "big winner" in my favor.=20
<snip>
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<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">John, please take pity and use a =
larger font and=20
black color. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Your posts are very difficult to=20
read.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks for your =
consideration,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dxjadair@brightok.net =
href=3D"mailto:xjadair@brightok.net">John=20
Adair</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 19, =
2001 7:14=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Point of =
View: Why=20
bother with fundamentals?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Hi=20
Katherine,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">I like=20
your reply it shows a very disciplined approach to investing. How long =
have=20
you been at investing? I assume you are retired and fulltime investing =
for the=20
most part.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>By the way thanks for =
suggesting=20
Bulkowski.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><SPAN class=3DEmailStyle21><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#993366=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A>=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B><SPAN =
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On=20
Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Katherine Malm<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Wednesday, December 19, =
2001 4:02=20
PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] Point of =
View: Why=20
bother with fundamentals?</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Hi=20
John,</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">>></SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The last =
paragraph=20
seems<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>indicate you do =
use=20
fundamentals and sector rotation for your screening. Then you<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>use total technical analysis =
from that=20
point including exits. Correct?<<</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">That is=20
for the most part correct, though industry analysis (sector=20
rotation) enters in both screening and in buy/sell decisions. I =
look for=20
something with a fundamental story and if I like it, I watch it until =
the=20
industry and technical analysis stars align. As part of my buy review =
process,=20
I look at the action in all players in the industry. This will help =
ensure=20
that the industry is not topping out, even though the buy candidate =
looks=20
technically sound. I also look at industry players to be sure that =
moves off=20
the bottom show that at least 2 strong stocks are moving. One alone, =
and I=20
wait. Once I own a stock, part of my sell rules include continued =
review of=20
other stocks in the industry. If they begin breaking down, but my =
holding is=20
strong, it goes on warning. If other technical warning signs kick in, =
out it=20
goes. My entries and exits are definitely driven by=20
technicals. There are times, however, where fundamentals do play =
a hand=20
in my sell rules:</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">(1)=20
This is really a combined fundamental/technical sell rule: Sell if a =
stock=20
gaps down on earnings news. I don't have a perfect example of this =
from my own=20
recent sells, but one that is close. I owned IRF earlier in the year. =
In early=20
June it started flashing all sorts of technical warnings. On 6/11 it =
gapped=20
down with no explanation. That was enough for me, as I knew =
earnings were=20
upcoming. I was out on the 12th. On 6/15 it gapped down on earnings =
news. If I=20
hadn't already sold, I would have within a day or two of the gap. =
The day=20
or two lag is only so that I can catch the last little bounce =
before it=20
gives up the ghost. There are plenty more examples better than =
this one=20
where the stock went on to drop into oblivion, but I can't think of =
one off=20
the top of my head.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">(2) If=20
fundamentals are deteriorating. This is a WON rule. That is, if the =
earnings=20
growth begins decelerating 2 quarters in a row, something's up. This =
is what=20
prompted me to begin scaling out of DELL in early 99. Technicals were =
also=20
getting iffy, but the earnings news clinched it. I was out completely =
by Fall=20
of 99. Absolutely everybody I knew thought I'd lost it. That doesn't =
mean I=20
don't think DELL's a great company. I do. It just means my sell rules =
worked=20
when it mattered.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">(3)=20
Financial shenanigans. There's just no way to know how things will =
look when=20
the smoke clears. You can get an example like TYC where it turns out =
to be ok.=20
Then you can get a MSTR or ENE or LU. I just don't think the odds =
favor these=20
things working out for the best, so I'd rather watch the dust clear =
from the=20
sidelines. The latest is TTWO. I haven't ever owned it, but I can't =
wait to=20
see what happens.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">>></SPAN></FONT><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">If=20
that’s correct then would you begin to identify some of the =
patterns in the=20
stocks you evaluate. I have purchased Bulkowski and trying to make =
sense out=20
of it. The patterns never seem to match his=20
diagrams.<<</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I=20
wrestle with technicals every day. I wouldn't say I'm the best person =
on the=20
list to address this question, as there are so many others here who =
are very=20
good technicians. I can identify the plain and simple, but if I can't =
read it=20
I will rely on industry analysis, technicals in other players, or will =
just=20
write it off as "too hard to read--wait and see what happens." This =
happened=20
recently while I was watching JEC. I wasn't considering it for a buy, =
but was=20
watching it for other reasons. I just couldn't figure out the chart =
and it'=20
the reason why I posted the question to the list. Strangely enough, =
JEC showed=20
up in an Investor's Corner the other day. Imagine=20
that.</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><SPAN =
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Katherine</SPAN></FONT></SPAN><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">----- Original=20
Message ----- </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; PADDING-BOTTOM: =
0in; BORDER-LEFT: black 1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dxjadair@brightok.net href=3D"mailto:xjadair@brightok.net">John =
Adair</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> Tuesday, =
December=20
18, 2001 7:35 PM</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> RE: =
[CANSLIM] Point=20
of View: Why bother with fundamentals?</SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; =
mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt"><SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Hi=20
Katherine<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">I read=20
with interest your procedure The last paragraph seems<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>indicate you do use =
fundamentals and=20
sector rotation for your screening. Then you<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>use total technical analysis =
from that=20
point including exits. Correct?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">If=20
that’s correct then would you begin to identify some of the =
patterns in the=20
stocks you evaluate. I have purchased Bulkowski and trying to make =
sense out=20
of it. The patterns never seem to match his=20
diagrams.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; BACKGROUND: white; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; =
MARGIN-LEFT: 39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; =
BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; =
mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 4.0pt; mso-shading: transparent"><SPAN=20
class=3DEmailStyle18><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: =
12.0pt">John=20
A<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- =
Original=20
Message ----- </SPAN></FONT><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A>=20
</SPAN></FONT></DIV><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT>
<P></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
39.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><![if =
!supportEmptyParas]><![endif]> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; =
mso-color-alt: windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
79.5pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; =
mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in =
4.0pt"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; =
FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><snip></SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: black =
1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none">
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">The point =
is, a=20
company can have the potential to be a great company, but if there is =
no=20
demand for the stock, the price will not go up. Or, sometimes, the =
price of a=20
stock of a seeming worthless company will go up. Until it doesn't. =
Every once=20
in a while you will watch a very good company become a great company =
and the=20
stock will go up, and up, and up, and up. Until it doesn't. All you =
need to=20
know is market history to know that this is true. You don't need =
exhaustive=20
statistical studies. You can find example after example. But can you =
find a=20
good company that is underowned or undiscovered and has the=20
potential to become a great company? Can you determine when demand is=20
beginning to overwhelm supply so that you can buy it at a good price? =
Can you=20
tell if there is continued demand for it that drives up the price? Can =
you=20
determine when is becoming overowned and sell it for as much as =
possible? Can=20
you make money on it? I believe you can. Fundamentals tell the story =
of a good=20
company. Due diligence tells the story of potential. Technicals tell =
the story=20
of supply and demand. CANSLIM has <EM><I>all</I></EM> of these in its =
toolbag.=20
How you chose to use them is your choice.</SPAN></FONT><FONT =
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Here is my =
answer to=20
this question. As you can see, it is different than everyone=20
else's.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Narrowing =
down the=20
universe of candidates based on excellent fundamentals and =
company/industry=20
potential allows me to ride price movement with a bonus. If the market =
is=20
healthy and this stock is not yet "discovered" and the company =
fulfills its=20
potential, I may be able to ride it much longer than the intermediate =
term.=20
This stock could easily become the next DELL, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, =
or HD.=20
Fundamentals, well considered, put the odds for selecting a "big =
winner" in my=20
favor.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black"> </SPAN></FONT><FONT color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN-LEFT: =
75.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none; mso-border-left-alt: solid black 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: =
0in 0in 0in 4.0pt"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3Dblack size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><snip></SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN=20
style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-color-alt: =
windowtext"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY>=
</HTML>
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