Re: [CANSLIM] TOL

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TOL
Date: Thu, 20 Dec 2001 07:10:55 -0600
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High Dave,

It looks to me as though TOL broke out on 12/12. But in truth, I have a =
hard time believing the homebuilders have enough oomph left in them to =
go much further; TOL, in particular, since it specializes in high end =
homes. If you look back on the industry, the real run is behind them. It =
started when the Fed started easing, and this is a typical reaction for =
the group. Also, it is common for interest rate sensitive groups such as =
homebuilders to lead out of a bear market. They often mark the =
transition from bear to new bull. It has been a bit confounding, =
however, as they seemed to have done well *while* the bear was going on. =
(I suppose a false signal with respect to timing.) I was puzzled when =
they fell apart earlier this summer. But this current run is =
corresponding more directly with other economic indicators such as an =
apparent bottoming in economically sensitive commodities, etc., and =
seems to point to a transitional period in the market.

All in all, I'd say my conclusion would be to keep from taking any =
*risky* entries on the homebuilders.

Katherine
  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: J. David Stem=20
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2001 12:01 AM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] TOL


  Going through DGO, the stock TOL stood out to me... low PE, 36 M =
shares, A's across the board.  97 EPS, 83 RS.  It's just broken out of a =
cup on very strong volume, yet, alas, there's no handle.  Anyone have =
any thoughts/experience with patterns of this sort?

  Dave

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<DIV>High Dave,</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>It looks to me as though TOL broke out on 12/12. But in truth, I =
have a=20
hard time believing the homebuilders have enough oomph left in them to =
go much=20
further; TOL, in particular, since it specializes in high end homes. If =
you look=20
back on the industry, the real run is behind them. It started when the =
Fed=20
started easing, and this is a typical reaction for the group. Also, it =
is common=20
for interest rate sensitive groups such as homebuilders to lead out of a =
bear=20
market. They often mark the transition from bear to new bull. It has =
been a bit=20
confounding, however, as they seemed to have done well *while* the bear =
was=20
going on. (I suppose a false signal with respect to timing.) I was =
puzzled when=20
they fell apart earlier this summer. But this current run is =
corresponding more=20
directly with other economic indicators such as an apparent bottoming in =

economically sensitive commodities, etc., and seems to point to a =
transitional=20
period in the market.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>All in all, I'd say my conclusion would be to keep from taking any =
*risky*=20
entries on the homebuilders.</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Djdavidstem@msn.com href=3D"mailto:jdavidstem@msn.com">J. =
David Stem</A>=20
  </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, December 20, =
2001 12:01=20
  AM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] TOL</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Going through DGO, the stock TOL =
stood out to=20
  me... low PE, 36 M shares, A's across the board.&nbsp; 97 EPS, 83 =
RS.&nbsp;=20
  It's just broken out of a cup on very strong volume, yet, alas, =
there's no=20
  handle</FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>.&nbsp; Anyone have any=20
  thoughts/experience with patterns of this sort?</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2>Dave</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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