Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2001 09:38:37 -0600
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Hi Dave,
Thanks for the great charts...so helpful to see this while working =
through your example. I like that you've shown how you manage the risk =
when there's a low volume breakout, in fact it seems it'd be a great =
guideline to put into every CANSLIMers bag of tricks. I've learned =
through trial by fire that 7-8% is a sucker's number if applied in all =
cases. Eric T has also mentioned this same point in several of his =
discussions. I can remember at the IBD seminars hearing both Bryan and =
Gil mention that they can tell immediately if something is going to work =
or not, that meant that they were often out of the buy long before the =
7-8% rule kicked in. Here, you've given a great way to identify this =
very phenomenon. Thanks.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Dave Squires=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, December 21, 2001 8:51 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Hi Katherine,
I would agree 10/24 was a confirming move but if you were strictly =
applying CS technicals you would not have been in the stock on the BO =
and buying the all time high with the recommended WON stop leaves you as =
a sitting duck. I say this because the handle breakout came at the end =
of the day and it was very clear the volume numbers were not going to be =
met. If I end up in a light volume breakout I view it as high risk and =
immediately pull my stop up to 4% and give the stock 2-3 days to confirm =
price with volume. That's exactly what I would have done in this case IF =
it was an early BO that didn't meet the volume numbers by days end. In =
this case it was clearly not even close so why risk it. So again IBD is =
putting its own self interest ahead of the interest of new CANSLIMers by =
showing clear rule violations and making them fell dumb in the process.=20
DSquires
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2001 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Hi Tom,
I'd have to disagree on MGAM. It started correcting 7/5 at 23.10. =
Began a C&H formation, then started a handle 10/10 at 20.45. Just where =
you'd want to see it, within a certain percent of the old high. The =
handle drifted lower, but volume was a little mixed, I'd attribute that =
to "M." It didn't form a "perfect" B/O, as it drifted up a couple of =
days on low volume (again "M" getting its legs played a part), but the =
B/O on 10/24 on volume was a confirming move. That's a 66% move out of =
the breakout with, so far, good P/V action in the upmove, decent =
fundamentals, and a confirming industry group move.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2001 11:24 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Earl, I don't think you need to lower your standards, I thing IBD =
needs to quit telling us about all the missed opportunities after the =
fact!
Most of these "winners" could not have been bought / caught using =
WON rules for CANSLIM. As just one example, MGAM is a huge gainer, but =
to have achieved the best return on it, you had to buy off the one week =
base at 20, where the breakout that started the run was below ADV. =
That's hardly a "valid" entry point, and it's the best I see since it =
bottomed.
Your only other choice on most of these was guessing where it =
bottomed, then playing it on a pure momentum aspect. That's not CANSLIM =
either.=20
I would welcome the day when IBD starts analyzing CURRENT chart =
patterns, and pointing out to us dummies things we should be seeing NOW!
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: esetser=20
To: canslim@xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2001 12:27 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Did anyone else notice that the IBD called out some winners to =
show that
this market isn't so bad after all? This was in Wed Big =
Picture, and I
took some time to see what I've been missing. The stocks =
mentioned were
examples of breakouts that IBD says "a growing contingent (of =
stocks) is
acting fine."
The list was:
AZO
BBI
BPRX
CACI
DYII
GNSS
GTK
ITRI
JAKK
KRON
LOW
MCAF
MIKE
MGAM
PECS
I looked through the stocks and found very few that I would have =
purchased.
Maybe I need to lower my standards? There were some strange
characteristics: Group Strength D, 4 week base, EPS=3D51, =
several stocks with
only the last quarter with good earnings growth, one stock that =
gapped from
the low of it's base to a new 52 week high in one day (nice =
right side of
the cliff, er CUP?), etc. Overall, out of these 15 stocks, I =
only saw
maybe 3 or 4 that I would have considered at the time. In fact, =
I think
the stocks we have seen failing would generally look much better =
to me that
these. Anyone want to take a look and see if they agree?
=20
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi Dave,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for the great charts...so helpful to see this while working =
through=20
your example. I like that you've shown how you manage the risk when =
there's a=20
low volume breakout, in fact it seems it'd be a great guideline to put =
into=20
every CANSLIMers bag of tricks. I've learned through trial by fire that =
7-8% is=20
a sucker's number if applied in all cases. Eric T has also mentioned =
this same=20
point in several of his discussions. I can remember at the IBD seminars =
hearing=20
both Bryan and Gil mention that they can tell immediately if something =
is going=20
to work or not, that meant that they were often out of the buy long =
before the=20
7-8% rule kicked in. Here, you've given a great way to identify this =
very=20
phenomenon. Thanks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddcsquires1@home.com =
href=3D"mailto:dcsquires1@home.com">Dave=20
Squires</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 21, 2001 =
8:51=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I would agree 10/24 was a confirming =
move but if=20
you were strictly applying CS technicals you would not have =
been in the=20
stock on the BO and buying the all time high with the recommended WON =
stop=20
leaves you as a sitting duck. I say this because the handle breakout =
came at=20
the end of the day and it was very clear the volume numbers were not =
going to=20
be met. If I end up in a light volume breakout I view it as high risk =
and=20
immediately pull my stop up to 4% and give the stock 2-3 days to =
confirm price=20
with volume. That's exactly what I would have done in this case IF it =
was an=20
early BO that didn't meet the volume numbers by days end. In this case =
it was=20
clearly not even close so why risk it. So again IBD is putting its own =
self=20
interest ahead of the interest of new CANSLIMers by showing clear rule =
violations and making them fell dumb in the process. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DSquires</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, December 02, =
2001 11:38=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'd have to disagree on MGAM. It =
started=20
correcting 7/5 at 23.10. Began a C&H formation, then started a =
handle=20
10/10 at 20.45. Just where you'd want to see it, within a certain =
percent of=20
the old high. The handle drifted lower, but volume was a little =
mixed, I'd=20
attribute that to "M." It didn't form a "perfect" B/O, as it drifted =
up a=20
couple of days on low volume (again "M" getting its legs played a =
part), but=20
the B/O on 10/24 on volume was a confirming move. That's a 66% move =
out of=20
the breakout with, so far, good P/V action in the upmove, decent=20
fundamentals, and a confirming industry group move.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, December 02, =
2001 11:24=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Earl, I don't think you need to lower your =
standards, I=20
thing IBD needs to quit telling us about all the missed =
opportunities=20
after the fact!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Most of these "winners" could not have been =
bought /=20
caught using WON rules for CANSLIM. As just one example, MGAM is a =
huge=20
gainer, but to have achieved the best return on it, you had to buy =
off the=20
one week base at 20, where the breakout that started the run was =
below=20
ADV. That's hardly a "valid" entry point, and it's the best I see =
since it=20
bottomed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Your only other choice on most of these was =
guessing=20
where it bottomed, then playing it on a pure momentum aspect. =
That's not=20
CANSLIM either. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would welcome the day when IBD starts =
analyzing=20
CURRENT chart patterns, and pointing out to us dummies things we =
should be=20
seeing NOW!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Desetser@covad.net =
href=3D"mailto:esetser@covad.net">esetser</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">canslim@xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, December =
01, 2001=20
12:27 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Did anyone else notice that the IBD called out =
some=20
winners to show that<BR>this market isn't so bad after =
all? This=20
was in Wed Big Picture, and I<BR>took some time to see what I've =
been=20
missing. The stocks mentioned were<BR>examples of =
breakouts that=20
IBD says "a growing contingent (of stocks) is<BR>acting=20
fine."<BR><BR>The list=20
=
was:<BR><BR>AZO<BR>BBI<BR>BPRX<BR>CACI<BR>DYII<BR>GNSS<BR>GTK<BR>ITRI<BR>=
JAKK<BR>KRON<BR>LOW<BR>MCAF<BR>MIKE<BR>MGAM<BR>PECS<BR><BR>I=20
looked through the stocks and found very few that I would have=20
purchased.<BR> Maybe I need to lower my standards? =
There were=20
some strange<BR>characteristics: Group Strength D, 4 week base, =
EPS=3D51,=20
several stocks with<BR>only the last quarter with good earnings =
growth,=20
one stock that gapped from<BR>the low of it's base to a new 52 =
week high=20
in one day (nice right side of<BR>the cliff, er CUP?), =
etc. =20
Overall, out of these 15 stocks, I only saw<BR>maybe 3 or 4 that =
I would=20
have considered at the time. In fact, I think<BR>the =
stocks we=20
have seen failing would generally look much better to me=20
that<BR>these. Anyone want to take a look and see if they=20
agree?<BR> <BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
=
email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HT=
ML>
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