Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Dave Squires" <dcsquires1@home.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2001 10:29:09 -0600
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For me it is a question of time frame. If I am taking an intermediate =
time frame trade I will use IT time frame stops and trails. So even =
though the stock is showing a light volume breakout I don't want to lose =
any of my position until I get a signal on the daily or maybe 60-min =
time frame (i.e. stock dropping on volume, not moving on volume or =
effortlessly recrossing the pivot). In my experience, many light volume =
breakouts confirm the next day if they are good breakouts. It took 2 =
days with MGAM. I think your rule is just as good for someone that is =
very risk adverse.=20
DSquires
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Dan Forant=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, December 21, 2001 10:15 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
What about selling an iffy stock 1/3 of the position with gains, then =
if a severe pullback occurs to the stop, the loss is far less.
DanF
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, December 21, 2001 10:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Hi Dave,
Thanks for the great charts...so helpful to see this while working =
through your example. I like that you've shown how you manage the risk =
when there's a low volume breakout, in fact it seems it'd be a great =
guideline to put into every CANSLIMers bag of tricks. I've learned =
through trial by fire that 7-8% is a sucker's number if applied in all =
cases. Eric T has also mentioned this same point in several of his =
discussions. I can remember at the IBD seminars hearing both Bryan and =
Gil mention that they can tell immediately if something is going to work =
or not, that meant that they were often out of the buy long before the =
7-8% rule kicked in. Here, you've given a great way to identify this =
very phenomenon. Thanks.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Dave Squires=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, December 21, 2001 8:51 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Hi Katherine,
I would agree 10/24 was a confirming move but if you were strictly =
applying CS technicals you would not have been in the stock on the BO =
and buying the all time high with the recommended WON stop leaves you as =
a sitting duck. I say this because the handle breakout came at the end =
of the day and it was very clear the volume numbers were not going to be =
met. If I end up in a light volume breakout I view it as high risk and =
immediately pull my stop up to 4% and give the stock 2-3 days to confirm =
price with volume. That's exactly what I would have done in this case IF =
it was an early BO that didn't meet the volume numbers by days end. In =
this case it was clearly not even close so why risk it. So again IBD is =
putting its own self interest ahead of the interest of new CANSLIMers by =
showing clear rule violations and making them fell dumb in the process.=20
DSquires
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2001 11:38 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Hi Tom,
I'd have to disagree on MGAM. It started correcting 7/5 at =
23.10. Began a C&H formation, then started a handle 10/10 at 20.45. Just =
where you'd want to see it, within a certain percent of the old high. =
The handle drifted lower, but volume was a little mixed, I'd attribute =
that to "M." It didn't form a "perfect" B/O, as it drifted up a couple =
of days on low volume (again "M" getting its legs played a part), but =
the B/O on 10/24 on volume was a confirming move. That's a 66% move out =
of the breakout with, so far, good P/V action in the upmove, decent =
fundamentals, and a confirming industry group move.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, December 02, 2001 11:24 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Earl, I don't think you need to lower your standards, I thing =
IBD needs to quit telling us about all the missed opportunities after =
the fact!
Most of these "winners" could not have been bought / caught =
using WON rules for CANSLIM. As just one example, MGAM is a huge gainer, =
but to have achieved the best return on it, you had to buy off the one =
week base at 20, where the breakout that started the run was below ADV. =
That's hardly a "valid" entry point, and it's the best I see since it =
bottomed.
Your only other choice on most of these was guessing where it =
bottomed, then playing it on a pure momentum aspect. That's not CANSLIM =
either.=20
I would welcome the day when IBD starts analyzing CURRENT =
chart patterns, and pointing out to us dummies things we should be =
seeing NOW!
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: esetser=20
To: canslim@xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2001 12:27 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Winner Check
Did anyone else notice that the IBD called out some winners =
to show that
this market isn't so bad after all? This was in Wed Big =
Picture, and I
took some time to see what I've been missing. The stocks =
mentioned were
examples of breakouts that IBD says "a growing contingent =
(of stocks) is
acting fine."
The list was:
AZO
BBI
BPRX
CACI
DYII
GNSS
GTK
ITRI
JAKK
KRON
LOW
MCAF
MIKE
MGAM
PECS
I looked through the stocks and found very few that I would =
have purchased.
Maybe I need to lower my standards? There were some =
strange
characteristics: Group Strength D, 4 week base, EPS=3D51, =
several stocks with
only the last quarter with good earnings growth, one stock =
that gapped from
the low of it's base to a new 52 week high in one day (nice =
right side of
the cliff, er CUP?), etc. Overall, out of these 15 stocks, =
I only saw
maybe 3 or 4 that I would have considered at the time. In =
fact, I think
the stocks we have seen failing would generally look much =
better to me that
these. Anyone want to take a look and see if they agree?
=20
-
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-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>For me it is a question of time frame. =
If I am=20
taking an intermediate time frame trade I will use IT time frame stops =
and=20
trails. So even though the stock is showing a light volume breakout I =
don't want=20
to lose any of my position until I get a signal on the daily or maybe =
60-min=20
time frame (i.e. stock dropping on volume, not moving on volume or =
effortlessly=20
recrossing the pivot). In my experience, many light volume breakouts =
confirm the=20
next day if they are good breakouts. It took 2 days with MGAM. I think =
your rule=20
is just as good for someone that is very risk adverse. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DSquires</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddforant1@nycap.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com">Dan=20
Forant</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 21, 2001 =
10:15=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What about selling an iffy stock 1/3 =
of the=20
position with gains, then if a severe pullback occurs to the =
stop, the=20
loss is far less.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DanF</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 21, =
2001 10:38=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Dave,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for the great charts...so helpful to see this while =
working=20
through your example. I like that you've shown how you manage the =
risk when=20
there's a low volume breakout, in fact it seems it'd be a great =
guideline to=20
put into every CANSLIMers bag of tricks. I've learned through trial =
by fire=20
that 7-8% is a sucker's number if applied in all cases. Eric T has =
also=20
mentioned this same point in several of his discussions. I can =
remember at=20
the IBD seminars hearing both Bryan and Gil mention that they can =
tell=20
immediately if something is going to work or not, that meant that =
they were=20
often out of the buy long before the 7-8% rule kicked in. Here, =
you've given=20
a great way to identify this very phenomenon. Thanks.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddcsquires1@home.com =
href=3D"mailto:dcsquires1@home.com">Dave=20
Squires</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 21, =
2001 8:51=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] IBD =
Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I would agree 10/24 was a =
confirming move but=20
if you were strictly applying CS technicals you would not have=20
been in the stock on the BO and buying the all time high with =
the=20
recommended WON stop leaves you as a sitting duck. I say this =
because the=20
handle breakout came at the end of the day and it was very clear =
the=20
volume numbers were not going to be met. If I end up in a light =
volume=20
breakout I view it as high risk and immediately pull my stop up to =
4% and=20
give the stock 2-3 days to confirm price with volume. That's =
exactly what=20
I would have done in this case IF it was an early BO that didn't =
meet the=20
volume numbers by days end. In this case it was clearly not even =
close so=20
why risk it. So again IBD is putting its own self interest ahead =
of the=20
interest of new CANSLIMers by showing clear rule violations and =
making=20
them fell dumb in the process. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DSquires</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, December =
02, 2001=20
11:38 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
IBD Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Hi Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I'd have to disagree on MGAM. =
It started=20
correcting 7/5 at 23.10. Began a C&H formation, then started =
a=20
handle 10/10 at 20.45. Just where you'd want to see it, within a =
certain=20
percent of the old high. The handle drifted lower, but volume =
was a=20
little mixed, I'd attribute that to "M." It didn't form a =
"perfect" B/O,=20
as it drifted up a couple of days on low volume (again "M" =
getting its=20
legs played a part), but the B/O on 10/24 on volume was a =
confirming=20
move. That's a 66% move out of the breakout with, so far, good =
P/V=20
action in the upmove, decent fundamentals, and a confirming =
industry=20
group move.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Katherine</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, December =
02, 2001=20
11:24 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
IBD Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Earl, I don't think you need to lower your =
standards, I thing IBD needs to quit telling us about all the =
missed=20
opportunities after the fact!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Most of these "winners" could not have =
been bought /=20
caught using WON rules for CANSLIM. As just one example, MGAM =
is a=20
huge gainer, but to have achieved the best return on it, you =
had to=20
buy off the one week base at 20, where the breakout that =
started the=20
run was below ADV. That's hardly a "valid" entry point, and =
it's the=20
best I see since it bottomed.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Your only other choice on most of these =
was guessing=20
where it bottomed, then playing it on a pure momentum aspect. =
That's=20
not CANSLIM either. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would welcome the day when IBD starts =
analyzing=20
CURRENT chart patterns, and pointing out to us dummies things =
we=20
should be seeing NOW!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Desetser@covad.net=20
href=3D"mailto:esetser@covad.net">esetser</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">canslim@xmission.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, =
December 01,=20
2001 12:27 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
IBD Winner=20
Check</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Did anyone else notice that the IBD called =
out some=20
winners to show that<BR>this market isn't so bad after =
all? =20
This was in Wed Big Picture, and I<BR>took some time to see =
what=20
I've been missing. The stocks mentioned =
were<BR>examples of=20
breakouts that IBD says "a growing contingent (of stocks)=20
is<BR>acting fine."<BR><BR>The list=20
=
was:<BR><BR>AZO<BR>BBI<BR>BPRX<BR>CACI<BR>DYII<BR>GNSS<BR>GTK<BR>ITRI<BR>=
JAKK<BR>KRON<BR>LOW<BR>MCAF<BR>MIKE<BR>MGAM<BR>PECS<BR><BR>I=20
looked through the stocks and found very few that I would =
have=20
purchased.<BR> Maybe I need to lower my =
standards? There=20
were some strange<BR>characteristics: Group Strength D, 4 =
week base,=20
EPS=3D51, several stocks with<BR>only the last quarter with =
good=20
earnings growth, one stock that gapped from<BR>the low of =
it's base=20
to a new 52 week high in one day (nice right side of<BR>the =
cliff,=20
er CUP?), etc. Overall, out of these 15 stocks, I only =
saw<BR>maybe 3 or 4 that I would have considered at the =
time. =20
In fact, I think<BR>the stocks we have seen failing would =
generally=20
look much better to me that<BR>these. Anyone want to =
take a=20
look and see if they agree?<BR> <BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" =
or<BR>-"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your=20
=
email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOT=
E></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] stacking the odds in my favor-buying before the pivot point "Dave Squires"
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