Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TOL
Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2001 00:07:46 -0500
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Hi Katherine,
Watch my comments in WWW this weekend (assuming my PC doesn't fail me =
again) for some insight on the homebuilders and the economy.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2001 8:10 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TOL
High Dave,
It looks to me as though TOL broke out on 12/12. But in truth, I have =
a hard time believing the homebuilders have enough oomph left in them to =
go much further; TOL, in particular, since it specializes in high end =
homes. If you look back on the industry, the real run is behind them. It =
started when the Fed started easing, and this is a typical reaction for =
the group. Also, it is common for interest rate sensitive groups such as =
homebuilders to lead out of a bear market. They often mark the =
transition from bear to new bull. It has been a bit confounding, =
however, as they seemed to have done well *while* the bear was going on. =
(I suppose a false signal with respect to timing.) I was puzzled when =
they fell apart earlier this summer. But this current run is =
corresponding more directly with other economic indicators such as an =
apparent bottoming in economically sensitive commodities, etc., and =
seems to point to a transitional period in the market.
All in all, I'd say my conclusion would be to keep from taking any =
*risky* entries on the homebuilders.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: J. David Stem=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2001 12:01 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] TOL
Going through DGO, the stock TOL stood out to me... low PE, 36 M =
shares, A's across the board. 97 EPS, 83 RS. It's just broken out of a =
cup on very strong volume, yet, alas, there's no handle. Anyone have =
any thoughts/experience with patterns of this sort?
=20
Dave
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<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Watch my comments in WWW this weekend (assuming my =
PC doesn't=20
fail me again) for some insight on the homebuilders and the=20
economy.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: =
0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" =
title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net>Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, December 20, =
2001 8:10=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
TOL</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>High Dave,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>It looks to me as though TOL broke out on 12/12. But in truth, I =
have a=20
hard time believing the homebuilders have enough oomph left in them to =
go much=20
further; TOL, in particular, since it specializes in high end homes. =
If you=20
look back on the industry, the real run is behind them. It started =
when the=20
Fed started easing, and this is a typical reaction for the group. =
Also, it is=20
common for interest rate sensitive groups such as homebuilders to lead =
out of=20
a bear market. They often mark the transition from bear to new bull. =
It has=20
been a bit confounding, however, as they seemed to have done well =
*while* the=20
bear was going on. (I suppose a false signal with respect to timing.) =
I was=20
puzzled when they fell apart earlier this summer. But this current run =
is=20
corresponding more directly with other economic indicators such as an =
apparent=20
bottoming in economically sensitive commodities, etc., and seems to =
point to a=20
transitional period in the market.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>All in all, I'd say my conclusion would be to keep from taking =
any=20
*risky* entries on the homebuilders.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A href=3D"mailto:jdavidstem@msn.com" title=3Djdavidstem@msn.com>J. =
David=20
Stem</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, December 20, =
2001 12:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] TOL</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Going through DGO, the stock TOL =
stood out to=20
me... low PE, 36 M shares, A's across the board. 97 EPS, 83 =
RS. =20
It's just broken out of a cup on very strong volume, yet, alas, =
there's no=20
handle</FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>. Anyone have any=20
thoughts/experience with patterns of this sort?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2>Dave</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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