[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2001 11:49:41 -0500
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HOUSING STARTS, PERMITS
Both up sharply for November, ahead of expectations. Starts were up =
8.2%, permits 5.3%. In terms of fueling consumer spending, the purchase =
of a new home is one of the greatest factors, so strength here =
translates into increases sales of everything from building materials to =
furniture, appliances, carpet, curtains, etc. It also shows a =
willingness to commit to long term debt even in the face of high =
unemployment.=20
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ON ECONOMICS
Lately this topic seems to be one of contradictions more than =
consistency. The final GDP figure for the Third Quarter finishes up at a =
decline of 1.3% (worst in ten years), down more than expected even after =
the interim revision. This is a big number to overcome, and in my mind =
makes it virtually certain that the Fourth Quarter will report a =
negative number, confirming recession even by traditional standards. At =
the same time, the 11 aggressive Fed rate cuts this year seem only to =
have kept the economy from total collapse, rather than beginning a =
recovery. Yet there are signs of recovery, or at least bottoming, in =
many indicators. Does this mean we still need a Congressional mandated =
"economic stimulus" package, or will this just end up being more pork =
barrel wastage of taxpayers money? (personally I think the latter, I =
don't trust Congress with my money). Auto sales in October, with zero =
percent loans, have already proven to have cannibalized November sales, =
and likely well into next year. Yet other big purchases, such as homes, =
remain surprisingly strong. I do note here that historically people get =
greedy when mortgage rates are falling, and tend to wait to commit until =
they see rates turning up as they have, then rush to lock in the sales =
contract or loan. But then there is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment =
index, gaining ground to 88.8 from the preliminary 85.8, and up strongly =
from the 83.9 for the end of November. And it did that even as =
November's consumer spending dropped 0.7% (slightly better than expected =
and reflecting the drop in car sales) and personal income fell 0.1%, =
considerably worse than expectations of a 0.2% gain. And layoffs =
continue, and unemployment is high and expected to go even higher (to 6% =
or even 6.5%, fortunately it's a lagging indicator of the economy). =
October personal income was also revised lower by 0.1%. Still, the =
"experts" are predicting economic recovery by the middle of 2002, and =
even indicating positive growth during the first half.=20
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WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
As usual, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration, IMO. I will =
mention if I see other basing formations such as a c&h, double bottom, =
LLUR, etc. Remember that I am only looking at the past six months of the =
chart, and not doing any other due diligence than to ensure (unless =
otherwise mentioned) that the stocks mentioned have both an RS and an =
EPS of 80 or better, and are close (within 10%) of their 12 month high.

AAON - nice cup&handle, handle now 4 weeks long, drooped down, now =
drifting up on light end of year volume
ACS - LLUR
ASFI - B2, RS under 80, in my VR fund
AGM - B5
AGY - price weakness on volume may be altering the newly started LLUR =
pattern
ALLY - same comment, same group, but the high volume is not there
AMMD - began to b/o from a saucer on volume Friday
BVF - LLUR
CAKE - B2+
CECO - B2+
CPO - nice b/o Friday to the pivot on nearly 3X ADV, earnings forecast =
for new year +31%
CVBF - breaking the pivot on a B9 on Friday with heavy volume
DFXI - B3 on a weak double bottom?
DLX - LLUR despite weak earnings
FRED - LLUR, high PE trailing, but earnings forecast at +22%
IDPH - B6, strong earnings forecast
ISLE - B3, strong earnings forecast, in my VR Fund
JNC - LLUR
LOW - B3
MHO - B2+, earnings forecast to decline next year, home builder
MIMS - really ragged LLUR but with powerful earnings forecast, low =
priced ($15)
NDN - B3
NFI - CAT LLUR
NMTC - B2+
PBY - B2+
PETM - RAT LLUR
POSS - LLUR
RYAAY - B6
RYAN - LLUR, earnings weak
SASR - up 50% in six months on a steady, consistent LLUR, but b/o Friday =
on volume violates the pattern
STJ - B4

Happy Hunting,

God bless America, and its military people

Merry Christmas to all, have a safe and happy celebration,

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley


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<DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>HOUSING STARTS, =
PERMITS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Both up sharply for November, ahead of expectations. =
Starts=20
were up 8.2%, permits 5.3%. In terms of fueling consumer spending, the =
purchase=20
of a new home is one of the greatest factors, so strength here =
translates into=20
increases sales of everything from building materials to furniture, =
appliances,=20
carpet, curtains, etc. It also shows a willingness to commit to long =
term debt=20
even in the face of high unemployment.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>ON ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Lately this topic seems to be one of contradictions =
more than=20
consistency. The final GDP figure for the Third Quarter finishes up at a =
decline=20
of 1.3% (worst in ten years), down more than expected even after the =
interim=20
revision. This is a big number to overcome, and in my mind makes it =
virtually=20
certain that the Fourth Quarter will report a negative number, =
confirming=20
recession even by traditional standards. At the same time, the 11 =
aggressive Fed=20
rate cuts this year seem only to have kept the economy from total =
collapse,=20
rather than beginning a recovery. Yet there are signs of recovery, or at =
least=20
bottoming, in many indicators. Does this mean we still need a =
Congressional=20
mandated "economic stimulus" package, or will this just end up being =
more pork=20
barrel wastage of taxpayers money? (personally I think the latter, I =
don't trust=20
Congress with my money). Auto sales in October, with zero percent loans, =
have=20
already proven to have cannibalized November sales, and likely well into =
next=20
year. Yet other big purchases, such as homes, remain surprisingly =
strong. I do=20
note here that historically people get greedy when mortgage rates are =
falling,=20
and tend to wait to commit until they see rates turning up as they have, =
then=20
rush to lock in the sales contract or loan. But then there is the =
Michigan=20
Consumer Sentiment index, gaining ground to 88.8 from the preliminary =
85.8, and=20
up strongly from the 83.9 for the end of November. And it did that even =
as=20
November's consumer spending dropped 0.7% (slightly better than expected =
and=20
reflecting the drop in car sales) and&nbsp;personal income fell 0.1%,=20
considerably worse than expectations of a 0.2% gain. And layoffs =
continue, and=20
unemployment is high and expected to go even higher (to 6% or even 6.5%, =

fortunately it's a lagging indicator of the economy). October personal =
income=20
was also revised lower by 0.1%. Still, the "experts" are predicting =
economic=20
recovery by the middle of 2002, and even indicating positive growth =
during the=20
first half.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST =
WANNABES</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>As usual, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks =
duration,=20
IMO. I will mention if I see other basing formations such as a c&amp;h, =
double=20
bottom, LLUR, etc. Remember that I am only looking at the past six =
months of the=20
chart, and not doing any other due diligence than to ensure (unless =
otherwise=20
mentioned) that the stocks mentioned have both an RS and an EPS of 80 or =
better,=20
and are close (within 10%) of their 12 month high.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>AAON - nice cup&amp;handle, handle now 4 weeks long, =
drooped=20
down, now drifting up on light end of year volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>ACS - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>ASFI - B2, RS under 80, in my VR fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>AGM - B5</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>AGY - price weakness on volume may be altering the =
newly=20
started LLUR pattern</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>ALLY - same comment, same group, but the high volume =
is not=20
there</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>AMMD - began to b/o from a saucer on volume=20
Friday</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>BVF - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>CAKE - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>CECO - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>CPO - nice b/o Friday to the pivot on nearly 3X ADV, =
earnings=20
forecast for new year +31%</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>CVBF - breaking the pivot on a B9 on Friday with =
heavy=20
volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>DFXI - B3 on a weak double bottom?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>DLX - LLUR despite weak earnings</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>FRED - LLUR, high PE trailing, but earnings forecast =
at=20
+22%</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>IDPH - B6, strong earnings forecast</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>ISLE - B3, strong earnings forecast, in my VR=20
Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>JNC - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>LOW - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>MHO - B2+, earnings forecast to decline next year, =
home=20
builder</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>MIMS - really ragged LLUR but with powerful earnings =
forecast,=20
low priced ($15)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NDN - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NFI - CAT LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>NMTC - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>PBY - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>PETM - RAT LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>POSS - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>RYAAY - B6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>RYAN - LLUR, earnings weak</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>SASR - up 50% in six months on a steady, consistent =
LLUR, but=20
b/o Friday on volume violates the pattern</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>STJ - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>God bless America, and its military =
people</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Merry Christmas to all, have a safe and happy=20
celebration,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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