Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2001 11:49:41 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0077_01C18ADE.BE398CE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable HOUSING STARTS, PERMITS Both up sharply for November, ahead of expectations. Starts were up = 8.2%, permits 5.3%. In terms of fueling consumer spending, the purchase = of a new home is one of the greatest factors, so strength here = translates into increases sales of everything from building materials to = furniture, appliances, carpet, curtains, etc. It also shows a = willingness to commit to long term debt even in the face of high = unemployment.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ON ECONOMICS Lately this topic seems to be one of contradictions more than = consistency. The final GDP figure for the Third Quarter finishes up at a = decline of 1.3% (worst in ten years), down more than expected even after = the interim revision. This is a big number to overcome, and in my mind = makes it virtually certain that the Fourth Quarter will report a = negative number, confirming recession even by traditional standards. At = the same time, the 11 aggressive Fed rate cuts this year seem only to = have kept the economy from total collapse, rather than beginning a = recovery. Yet there are signs of recovery, or at least bottoming, in = many indicators. Does this mean we still need a Congressional mandated = "economic stimulus" package, or will this just end up being more pork = barrel wastage of taxpayers money? (personally I think the latter, I = don't trust Congress with my money). Auto sales in October, with zero = percent loans, have already proven to have cannibalized November sales, = and likely well into next year. Yet other big purchases, such as homes, = remain surprisingly strong. I do note here that historically people get = greedy when mortgage rates are falling, and tend to wait to commit until = they see rates turning up as they have, then rush to lock in the sales = contract or loan. But then there is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment = index, gaining ground to 88.8 from the preliminary 85.8, and up strongly = from the 83.9 for the end of November. And it did that even as = November's consumer spending dropped 0.7% (slightly better than expected = and reflecting the drop in car sales) and personal income fell 0.1%, = considerably worse than expectations of a 0.2% gain. And layoffs = continue, and unemployment is high and expected to go even higher (to 6% = or even 6.5%, fortunately it's a lagging indicator of the economy). = October personal income was also revised lower by 0.1%. Still, the = "experts" are predicting economic recovery by the middle of 2002, and = even indicating positive growth during the first half.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES As usual, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration, IMO. I will = mention if I see other basing formations such as a c&h, double bottom, = LLUR, etc. Remember that I am only looking at the past six months of the = chart, and not doing any other due diligence than to ensure (unless = otherwise mentioned) that the stocks mentioned have both an RS and an = EPS of 80 or better, and are close (within 10%) of their 12 month high. AAON - nice cup&handle, handle now 4 weeks long, drooped down, now = drifting up on light end of year volume ACS - LLUR ASFI - B2, RS under 80, in my VR fund AGM - B5 AGY - price weakness on volume may be altering the newly started LLUR = pattern ALLY - same comment, same group, but the high volume is not there AMMD - began to b/o from a saucer on volume Friday BVF - LLUR CAKE - B2+ CECO - B2+ CPO - nice b/o Friday to the pivot on nearly 3X ADV, earnings forecast = for new year +31% CVBF - breaking the pivot on a B9 on Friday with heavy volume DFXI - B3 on a weak double bottom? DLX - LLUR despite weak earnings FRED - LLUR, high PE trailing, but earnings forecast at +22% IDPH - B6, strong earnings forecast ISLE - B3, strong earnings forecast, in my VR Fund JNC - LLUR LOW - B3 MHO - B2+, earnings forecast to decline next year, home builder MIMS - really ragged LLUR but with powerful earnings forecast, low = priced ($15) NDN - B3 NFI - CAT LLUR NMTC - B2+ PBY - B2+ PETM - RAT LLUR POSS - LLUR RYAAY - B6 RYAN - LLUR, earnings weak SASR - up 50% in six months on a steady, consistent LLUR, but b/o Friday = on volume violates the pattern STJ - B4 Happy Hunting, God bless America, and its military people Merry Christmas to all, have a safe and happy celebration, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0077_01C18ADE.BE398CE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-1" = http-equiv=3DContent-Type> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.00.2314.1000" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>HOUSING STARTS, = PERMITS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Both up sharply for November, ahead of expectations. = Starts=20 were up 8.2%, permits 5.3%. In terms of fueling consumer spending, the = purchase=20 of a new home is one of the greatest factors, so strength here = translates into=20 increases sales of everything from building materials to furniture, = appliances,=20 carpet, curtains, etc. It also shows a willingness to commit to long = term debt=20 even in the face of high unemployment.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>ON ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Lately this topic seems to be one of contradictions = more than=20 consistency. The final GDP figure for the Third Quarter finishes up at a = decline=20 of 1.3% (worst in ten years), down more than expected even after the = interim=20 revision. This is a big number to overcome, and in my mind makes it = virtually=20 certain that the Fourth Quarter will report a negative number, = confirming=20 recession even by traditional standards. At the same time, the 11 = aggressive Fed=20 rate cuts this year seem only to have kept the economy from total = collapse,=20 rather than beginning a recovery. Yet there are signs of recovery, or at = least=20 bottoming, in many indicators. Does this mean we still need a = Congressional=20 mandated "economic stimulus" package, or will this just end up being = more pork=20 barrel wastage of taxpayers money? (personally I think the latter, I = don't trust=20 Congress with my money). Auto sales in October, with zero percent loans, = have=20 already proven to have cannibalized November sales, and likely well into = next=20 year. Yet other big purchases, such as homes, remain surprisingly = strong. I do=20 note here that historically people get greedy when mortgage rates are = falling,=20 and tend to wait to commit until they see rates turning up as they have, = then=20 rush to lock in the sales contract or loan. But then there is the = Michigan=20 Consumer Sentiment index, gaining ground to 88.8 from the preliminary = 85.8, and=20 up strongly from the 83.9 for the end of November. And it did that even = as=20 November's consumer spending dropped 0.7% (slightly better than expected = and=20 reflecting the drop in car sales) and personal income fell 0.1%,=20 considerably worse than expectations of a 0.2% gain. And layoffs = continue, and=20 unemployment is high and expected to go even higher (to 6% or even 6.5%, = fortunately it's a lagging indicator of the economy). October personal = income=20 was also revised lower by 0.1%. Still, the "experts" are predicting = economic=20 recovery by the middle of 2002, and even indicating positive growth = during the=20 first half.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>As usual, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration,=20 IMO. I will mention if I see other basing formations such as a c&h, = double=20 bottom, LLUR, etc. Remember that I am only looking at the past six = months of the=20 chart, and not doing any other due diligence than to ensure (unless = otherwise=20 mentioned) that the stocks mentioned have both an RS and an EPS of 80 or = better,=20 and are close (within 10%) of their 12 month high.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>AAON - nice cup&handle, handle now 4 weeks long, = drooped=20 down, now drifting up on light end of year volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>ACS - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>ASFI - B2, RS under 80, in my VR fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>AGM - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>AGY - price weakness on volume may be altering the = newly=20 started LLUR pattern</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>ALLY - same comment, same group, but the high volume = is not=20 there</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>AMMD - began to b/o from a saucer on volume=20 Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>BVF - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>CAKE - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>CECO - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>CPO - nice b/o Friday to the pivot on nearly 3X ADV, = earnings=20 forecast for new year +31%</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>CVBF - breaking the pivot on a B9 on Friday with = heavy=20 volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>DFXI - B3 on a weak double bottom?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>DLX - LLUR despite weak earnings</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>FRED - LLUR, high PE trailing, but earnings forecast = at=20 +22%</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>IDPH - B6, strong earnings forecast</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>ISLE - B3, strong earnings forecast, in my VR=20 Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>JNC - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>LOW - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>MHO - B2+, earnings forecast to decline next year, = home=20 builder</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>MIMS - really ragged LLUR but with powerful earnings = forecast,=20 low priced ($15)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NDN - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NFI - CAT LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>NMTC - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>PBY - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>PETM - RAT LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>POSS - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>RYAAY - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>RYAN - LLUR, earnings weak</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>SASR - up 50% in six months on a steady, consistent = LLUR, but=20 b/o Friday on volume violates the pattern</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>STJ - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>God bless America, and its military = people</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Merry Christmas to all, have a safe and happy=20 celebration,</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0077_01C18ADE.BE398CE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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