Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "DOUG CHIURATO" <xdzcx@email.msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 22 Dec 2001 13:52:36 -0700
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C18AEF.EA1BECC0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom I originally sent this last week after reading your WWW. I had some = questions related to your Japan section. My ISP Qwest is combining with = MSN and the transition occured while I've been traveling. So between = some problems with that transition and with the list service it looks = like my response to your WWW didnt get through. So anyway here's a copy = of what I tried to send last week.=20 I have some combination question comments regarding the economy relating = to comments in your weekly review. I'm very weak on this subject so = please go easy on me. You mentioned that Japan is experiencing a pickup = in inflation. They've been in a deflationary environment for most of the = 90's havent they? so with this perspective isnt inflation, relative to = the deflationary times, a good thing? On page 97 of the The Hedge Fund = Edge Mark Boucher writes this paragraph 'How long will the Japanese keep = spilling money into our markets? Probably until Japanese domestic = inflation heats up or until their economy picks up sufficiently to cut = back the need for liquification.' (That book was published in '99) Up = until this point havent the Japanese interest rates been almost zero. = Havent the Japanese been one of the major buyers of our long term bonds = making money with the difference between their short term rates and our = long term rates. If they are starting to experience inflation will they = be starting to raise rates? How much money have they already been = pulling out of our bonds? Hasnt this been a big fear all along or have = they already been cashing out of bonds. Sorry for all the questions. I = just know so little about this but it does appear to have some = importance in the whole scheme of global economy/stock markets. = Hopefully you can help clear up some of my confusion. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: CANSLIM=20 Sent: Saturday, December 15, 2001 8:18 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview EARNINGS WARNING SEASON It's that time of the quarter again, and the news releases on what to = expect from corporate America for the current quarter are starting to = roll in, and will heat up next week. I get an almost daily email this = time of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall = impression is that more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts = than are lowering expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the = 3rd qtr, earnings for the S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over = year in a decade. For the 4th quarter, expectations are for a drop of = 19%, better but still not good. But with both INTC and CSCO saying nice = things, as well as PG, even MRK's forecast of no growth for 2002 fades = in importance as it is company related more than sector related.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- JAPAN What can I say? This second largest economy remains mired in = government inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains on = the verge of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of = the largest banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which = promptly filed bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start = cutting off corps with whom they have long standing business = relationships. On Thursday, the banking index (now at new 3 year lows) = led the Nikkei to losses that wiped out what was made on Wednesday. = Everyone seems to be worried, or even panicking, except the government = who this week pulled off a successful devaluation of the yen, moving it = to a three year low against the US dollar. While this may temporarily = strengthen their exports, it will also raise the cost of imports, = leading to more inflation during their recession. And it will also = likely cause other devaluations of currency throughout Asia as those = countries try to hold onto market share. China and Malaysia may be hurt = the worst by this, as they have pegged their currency to the dollar, and = will try to defend it. Ultimately, this could lead to another financial = crisis similar to 1997 when Thailand started the domino effect. But with = Japan, the biggest economy in Asia, starting the process, it could = happen a lot faster this time.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- FED CUT The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis points), it was that they = left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of another 25 BP cut = at the January meeting. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- ON THE ECONOMY No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers couldn't = keep up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce = buying decisions. As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to = 3.7% (expected was a 3.1% drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October = (almost all on car sales). Still, that's nearly a 3% net for two months, = guess we'll take that, even if Christmas sales at the retailers appear = so far to be slower than anticipated. But the PPI (Producer Price Index) = also fell more than expected, to 0.6% (expected was a drop to 0.3 or = 0.4%), down further from October, hinting that inflation continues to be = a no show.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ----- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this weekend As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I see = other formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say so. ACS - LLUR ACTN - RAT LLUR AGM - B3 ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume BIOA - RAT LLUR BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4 BOKF - LLUR BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday BVF - RAT LLUR BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, unusual = pattern, I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, = stronger c&h formation CACI - LLUR CVBF - B8 DLX - LLUR DNB - LLUR FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced FRED - LLUR GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower volume GAN - CAT LLUR GFF - CAT LLUR HRB - B2 ISLE - B2 ITRI - CAT LLUR JCI - B5 JNC - LLUR KSS - high handle MATW - B3 MIMS - LLUR NFI - LLUR PHC - B10, tight range RAH - LLUR RKT - base on the handle, second handle?? RYAAY - B5 RYAN - LLUR THC - B4 TIER - LLUR Happy Hunting, God Bless America, and all its military people Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C18AEF.EA1BECC0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4807.2300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I originally sent this last week after=20 reading your WWW. I had some questions related to your = Japan=20 section. My ISP Qwest is combining with MSN and the transition = occured=20 while I've been traveling. So between some problems = with that=20 transition and with the list service it looks like my response to = your WWW=20 didnt get through. So anyway here's a copy of what I tried to = send last week. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I have some combination question = comments regarding=20 the economy relating to comments in your weekly review. I'm very = weak on=20 this subject so please go easy on me. You mentioned that Japan is = experiencing a=20 pickup in inflation. They've been in a deflationary environment for most = of the=20 90's havent they? so with this perspective isnt inflation, relative to = the=20 deflationary times, a good thing? On page 97 of the The Hedge Fund Edge = Mark=20 Boucher writes this paragraph 'How long will the Japanese keep spilling = money=20 into our markets? Probably until Japanese domestic inflation heats up or = until=20 their economy picks up sufficiently to cut back the need for = liquification.'=20 (That book was published in '99) Up until this point havent the Japanese = interest rates been almost zero. Havent the Japanese been one of the = major=20 buyers of our long term bonds making money with the difference between = their=20 short term rates and our long term rates. If they are starting to = experience=20 inflation will they be starting to raise rates? How much money have they = already=20 been pulling out of our bonds? Hasnt this been a big fear all along or = have they=20 already been cashing out of bonds. Sorry for all the questions. I = just know=20 so little about this but it does appear to have some importance in the = whole=20 scheme of global economy/stock markets. Hopefully you can help clear up = some of=20 my confusion.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom = Worley</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, December 15, = 2001 8:18=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's = Weekend=20 Weeview</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>EARNINGS WARNING = SEASON</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>It's that time of the quarter again, and the news = releases=20 on what to expect from corporate America for the current quarter are = starting=20 to roll in, and will heat up next week. I get an almost daily = email this=20 time of the quarter summarizing what was released, and my overall = impression=20 is that more are raising expectations or confirming forecasts than are = lowering expectations, both on revenues and earnings. In the 3rd qtr, = earnings=20 for the S&P500 fell nearly 22%, worst fall year over year in a = decade. For=20 the 4th quarter, expectations are for a drop of 19%, better but still = not=20 good. But with both INTC and CSCO saying nice things, as well as PG, = even=20 MRK's forecast of no growth for 2002 fades in importance as it is = company=20 related more than sector related.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>What can I say? This second largest economy = remains mired in=20 government inaction and indecisiveness. The banking industry remains = on the=20 verge of collapse, overwhelmed by bad loans. This past week, one of = the=20 largest banks (Asahi) finally cut off credit to Aoki Corp, which = promptly=20 filed bankruptcy, leading to fears that other banks will start cutting = off=20 corps with whom they have long standing business relationships. On = Thursday,=20 the banking index (now at new 3 year lows) led the Nikkei to losses = that wiped=20 out what was made on Wednesday. Everyone seems to be worried, or even=20 panicking, except the government who this week pulled off a successful = devaluation of the yen, moving it to a three year low against the US = dollar.=20 While this may temporarily strengthen their exports, it will also = raise the=20 cost of imports, leading to more inflation during their recession. And = it will=20 also likely cause other devaluations of currency throughout Asia as = those=20 countries try to hold onto market share. China and Malaysia may be = hurt the=20 worst by this, as they have pegged their currency to the dollar, and = will try=20 to defend it. Ultimately, this could lead to another financial crisis = similar=20 to 1997 when Thailand started the domino effect. But with Japan, = the=20 biggest economy in Asia, starting the process, it could happen = a lot=20 faster this time.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2><STRONG>FED CUT</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>The news wasn't that they cut 25 BP (basis = points), it was=20 that they left the bias in place, suggesting the possibility of = another 25 BP=20 cut at the January meeting.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>ON THE ECONOMY</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>No surprise, at least it shouldn't have been, the auto makers = couldn't=20 keep up the Japanese style of zero percent loans in order to induce = buying=20 decisions. As a result, retail sales fell more than expected to 3.7% = (expected=20 was a 3.1% drop) after rising 6.4% jump in October (almost all on car = sales).=20 Still, that's nearly a 3% net for two months, guess we'll take that, = even if=20 Christmas sales at the retailers appear so far to be slower than = anticipated.=20 But the PPI (Producer Price Index) also fell more than expected, to = 0.6%=20 (expected was a drop to 0.3 or 0.4%), down further from October, = hinting that=20 inflation continues to be a no show.=20 <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Appears like I will have fewer stocks to consider this = weekend</DIV> <DIV>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks, IMO. If I = see other=20 formations like c&h, double bottom, LLUR, CAT, RAT, I will say = so.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACS - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>ACTN - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>AGM - B3</DIV> <DIV>ASF - c&h, handle drooping on declining volume</DIV> <DIV>BIOA - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BLL - LLUR, earnings decline forecasted for Q4</DIV> <DIV>BOKF - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BPRX - uptrending B5, stealth b/o Thursday</DIV> <DIV>BVF - RAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>BZH - looking at this one again, I see a c&h on a c&h, = unusual=20 pattern, I suspect a weekly chart might smooth it out into a larger, = stronger=20 c&h formation</DIV> <DIV>CACI - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CVBF - B8</DIV> <DIV>DLX - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>DNB - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>FMT - c&h, b/o Friday, within 5% of pivot, low priced</DIV> <DIV>FRED - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GAIA - saucer, b/o Wed, declining to support on lower = volume</DIV> <DIV>GAN - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GFF - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>HRB - B2</DIV> <DIV>ISLE - B2</DIV> <DIV>ITRI - CAT LLUR</DIV> <DIV>JCI - B5</DIV> <DIV>JNC - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>KSS - high handle</DIV> <DIV>MATW - B3</DIV> <DIV>MIMS - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>NFI - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PHC - B10, tight range</DIV> <DIV>RAH - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>RKT - base on the handle, second handle??</DIV> <DIV>RYAAY - B5</DIV> <DIV>RYAN - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>THC - B4</DIV> <DIV>TIER - LLUR</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>God Bless America, and all its military people</DIV> <DIV></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley<BR></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01C18AEF.EA1BECC0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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