Re: [CANSLIM] Economic recovery

From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Economic recovery
Date: Thu, 27 Dec 2001 12:37:29 EST

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Tom:

     Each of the last two down days showed heavier volume than each of the 
previous 3 up days in the last week.  Moreover, the minute up day Monday 
indicates to me that the mkt. that day was churning, and yesterday's nice 
move was made on light volume.  

     I tend to usually disregard volume during the interim period between 
Christmas and New Year's, unless it seems to be saying something.  And now it 
does:  In this market at this time, I view it the way some see volume during 
the market's daily opening, ie. as emotionally-laden volume that is 
uninformed and hopeful.  Add to this that fund management money is still on 
holiday (as detected by the lack of volume), and it doesn't seem as if there 
is any intensity of belief (as defined by volume) in the Transp. Index.

      So what will the Transp. Index do?  To me it looks as if it will finish 
filling the gap, and probably will go several % points above last weeks high 
point.  But then, I believe, it seems to weak to continue rising.  

      What do you  think?  

jans



In a message dated 12/27/2001 6:45:04 AM Eastern Standard Time, 
stkguru@netside.net writes:

<< For those looking for a simple picture of the US economy, you need look no 
further than the Dow Jones Transportation Index. I have usually found this 
gives a pretty accurate picture of whether economic activity is increasing or 
decreasing.
 
 No surprise, with airlines comprising 31% of this index, it took a huge gap 
down after 9/11. But since then it has been slowly recovering, has virtually 
filled in the gap down, and is nearly back to its level before the attacks. 
And that's without complete recovery by the airlines, indicating other parts 
of the transportation system are well above early September.
  >>

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