Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets
Date: Tue, 1 Jan 2002 14:39:22 -0500
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I'll be my normal bullish self. I expect a strong January and a positive =
February, followed by a weak March. I expect Q4 results to mostly beat =
expectations, thereby increasing expectations for the new year. I think =
the economy has bottomed, as has industrial production, consumer =
spending remains decent and will accelerate. One area not mentioned a =
lot is internet spending, which I think increased sharply in the Q4 as =
people stayed home. This will further increase. I believe GDP for Q4 =
will be close to zero, slightly positive or negative, too close for me =
to call.
I anticipate increased economic activity during the Q1, with forecasts =
of earnings being raised for both the quarter and year. Unemployment =
will top out at 6.1% by early summer, then begin falling (and might =
happen even quicker and from a slightly lower level of unemployment). I =
do not expect another Fed rate cut, and do expect a rate hike by early =
summer. That will send the markets into a frenzy for a while, and cause =
a short term correction. But I do not expect inflation to become such a =
big problem that we end up with a continued series of rate hikes. The =
global economy is still simply too weak.
I also expect to see the specter of Osama remain around for a number of =
months, maybe with Omar as part of the picture. We don't really want to =
capture him, the custody and legal process would be a huge burden. And =
we want him still alive as he serves as a great justification for =
further military action against terrorist targets. So we can't find him, =
at least for now.=20
I look for the DOW to break 12,000 then correct back before motoring on =
to 13,500 or better by year's end. For NASDAQ I look for a strong first =
half, possibly gaining to 2,500 or more, then consolidating thru the =
summer before again moving higher by year's end, my target is 2,650.
OK, admittedly, there is absolutely no scientific or CANSLIM basis for =
this, but then I did pretty well in 2001 going with my gut instincts. =
And things have been looking much better lately.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Dan Forant=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 2:22 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets
Gene,
Your predictions are as good as any, and your probably not getting =
paid for them. My guess is the more bickering in Washington and the less =
they do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st first quarter negative =
estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to a year to kick in. =
The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not flying, and not =
just because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end of =
2002. Slow growth till fall. A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a =
few diamonds in the rough. How's that??
DanF
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 12:46 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Next Move In The Markets
Right now the predictions for the year 2002 are all over the place. =
The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't they always), the =
'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they always). I'm calling =
for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most likely get =
us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a correction by =
mid-January...
Thoughts?
Gene
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I'll be my normal bullish self. I expect a =
strong January=20
and a positive February, followed by a weak March. I expect Q4 results =
to mostly=20
beat expectations, thereby increasing expectations for the new year. I =
think the=20
economy has bottomed, as has industrial production, consumer spending =
remains=20
decent and will accelerate. One area not mentioned a lot is internet =
spending,=20
which I think increased sharply in the Q4 as people stayed home. This =
will=20
further increase. I believe GDP for Q4 will be close to zero, slightly =
positive=20
or negative, too close for me to call.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I anticipate increased economic activity during =
the Q1,=20
with forecasts of earnings being raised for both the quarter and year.=20
Unemployment will top out at 6.1% by early summer, then begin falling =
(and might=20
happen even quicker and from a slightly lower level of =
unemployment). I do=20
not expect another Fed rate cut, and do expect a rate hike by early =
summer. That=20
will send the markets into a frenzy for a while, and cause a short term=20
correction. But I do not expect inflation to become such a big problem =
that we=20
end up with a continued series of rate hikes. The global economy is =
still simply=20
too weak.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I also expect to see the specter of Osama remain =
around=20
for a number of months, maybe with Omar as part of the picture. We don't =
really=20
want to capture him, the custody and legal process would be a huge =
burden. And=20
we want him still alive as he serves as a great justification for =
further=20
military action against terrorist targets. So we can't find him, at =
least for=20
now. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I look for the DOW to break 12,000 then correct =
back=20
before motoring on to 13,500 or better by year's end. For NASDAQ I look =
for a=20
strong first half, possibly gaining to 2,500 or more, then consolidating =
thru=20
the summer before again moving higher by year's end, my target is=20
2,650.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OK, admittedly, there is absolutely no =
scientific or=20
CANSLIM basis for this, but then I did pretty well in 2001 going with my =
gut=20
instincts. And things have been looking much better lately.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Ddforant1@nycap.rr.com =
href=3D"mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com">Dan=20
Forant</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, January 01, 2002 =
2:22=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Next =
Move In The=20
Markets</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gene,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Your predictions are as good as any, =
and your=20
probably not getting paid for them. My guess is the more bickering in=20
Washington and the less they do, the better off we'll be. Past and 1st =
first=20
quarter negative estimates will improve some. Rate cuts take 6 mos to =
a year=20
to kick in. The airline industry will continue to suffer. I'm not =
flying, and=20
not just because of terrorism. Unemployment will not go down till end =
of 2002.=20
Slow growth till fall. A lot of short term breakouts and maybe a =
few=20
diamonds in the rough. How's that??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>DanF</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene =
Ricci</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, January 01, =
2002 12:46=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Next Move =
In The=20
Markets</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" size=3D3>Right now the predictions =
for the=20
year 2002 are all over the place.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal>The 'bears' are calling for a correction (don't =
they=20
always), the 'bulls' are calling for a resurgence (don't they =
always). I'm=20
calling for a choppy market with a bias to the upside that will most =
likely=20
get us to 2500 by the end of 2002. I think we'll be in a=20
correction by mid-January...</P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal>Thoughts?</P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal>Gene</P>
<P=20
class=3DMsoNormal> </P></SPAN></FONT></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOC=
KQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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