Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:07:30 -0600
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Hi Mike,
Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but only =
if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing market =
in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers in a =
meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a flat =
base since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the =
only "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a =
continuation of the move, so I'd say the real support is back at the =
pivot around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed by your 50 day EMA =
support figure.)
Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and growth =
had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" =
which is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture =
and the company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out =
nationally. I'm sure some of the action lately is in anticipation of =
their success. From a CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from =
the acquisition haven't found their way into the revenue and EPS figures =
in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the =
evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard in the group.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Hofmann=20
To: CANSLIM msg board=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:02 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR
Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty =
retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what =
I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary.
Today:
a.. Gapped up at open=20
b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x =
ADV)=20
c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20
d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased earnings =
guidance for the quarter=20
e.. Analysts are raving
Fundies:
Very strong overall
Pros:
a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20
b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20
c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20
d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two quarters=20
e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above =
industry avg (12.7%)=20
f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct
Cons:
a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, =
TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected=20
b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry =
average (1.5)=20
c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares and =
insiders have been selling=20
d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today =
marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of =
this run.
Chart:
a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk =
low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped up =
11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. =
Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price =
is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20?
Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72)
Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
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<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but =
only if=20
the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing market in a =
new=20
way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers in a =
meaningful way.=20
Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a flat base since 1/99. =
The=20
breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the only "official" =
breakout by=20
CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a continuation of the move, =
so I'd=20
say the real support is back at the pivot around 14ish. (This seems to =
be=20
confirmed by your 50 day EMA support figure.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and =
growth had=20
become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" which =
is based=20
in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture and the company =
thinks=20
they can carve a niche and roll this out nationally. I'm sure some of =
the action=20
lately is in anticipation of their success. From a CANSLIM point of =
view,=20
however, the results from the acquisition haven't found their way into =
the=20
revenue and EPS figures in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still =
sluggish. Until the evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard =
in the=20
group.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsfmcanslim@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:sfmcanslim@hotmail.com">Mike=20
Hofmann</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM msg board</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 5:02=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Great action on PIR recently, =
especially today.=20
Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish =
industry, but=20
here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate =
commentary.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Today:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gapped up at open</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Established new high on extremely =
heavy volume=20
(more than 5x ADV)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ended day at upper end of day's =
trading=20
range</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Announced better than expected Dec =
sales and=20
increased earnings guidance for the quarter</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Analysts are raving</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Fundies:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><U><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT></U></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very strong overall</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Pros:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Heavy institutional buying in =
quarter ended=20
9/30/2001</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>EPS has held up in difficult economy =
(EPS up 9%=20
in 3Q2001)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cash flow + (big time)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Low debt and big improvement in this =
area the=20
last two quarters</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion =
(16.6%), but=20
is well above industry avg (12.7%)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RSI has been holding in the 90s =
since early=20
Oct</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Cons:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 =
yr =3D 54%, 3=20
yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes =
in as=20
expected</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is =
in line=20
with industry average (1.5)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Insider ownership is poor at only =
1.5% of=20
outstanding shares and insiders have been selling</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has been on a very good run; are we =
seeing a=20
climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase =
since the=20
beginning of this run.</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Chart:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Broke out of cup w/o handle base =
formed by 12.65=20
high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume =
11/8. Also=20
gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o =
since=20
early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price =
and RSI.=20
Price is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does =
it have=20
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around =
20?</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Support:</U></STRONG> =
Around 50-day=20
EMA (14.72)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Resistance:</U></STRONG> =
Around=20
all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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