[CANSLIM] PIR

From: "Mike Hofmann" <sfmcanslim@hotmail.com>
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 15:02:19 -0800
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Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty =
retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what =
I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary.

Today:
  a.. Gapped up at open
  b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x ADV)
  c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range
  d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased earnings =
guidance for the quarter
  e.. Analysts are raving
Fundies:

Very strong overall

Pros:
  a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001
  b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)
  c.. Cash flow + (big time)
  d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two quarters
  e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above =
industry avg (12.7%)
  f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct
Cons:
  a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, TTM =
=3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected
  b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry average =
(1.5)
  c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares and =
insiders have been selling
  d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today =
marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of =
this run.
Chart:
  a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk =
low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped up =
11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. =
Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price =
is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20?

Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72)

Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Great action on PIR recently, =
especially today.=20
Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, =
but=20
here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate =
commentary.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Today:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gapped up at open</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Established new high on extremely =
heavy volume=20
  (more than 5x ADV)</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ended day at upper end of day's =
trading=20
  range</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Announced better than expected Dec =
sales and=20
  increased earnings guidance for the quarter</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Analysts are raving</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Fundies:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><U><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT></U></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very strong overall</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Pros:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Heavy institutional buying in quarter =
ended=20
  9/30/2001</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>EPS has held up in difficult economy =
(EPS up 9% in=20
  3Q2001)</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cash flow + (big time)</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Low debt and big improvement in this =
area the last=20
  two quarters</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion =
(16.6%), but=20
  is well above industry avg (12.7%)</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RSI has been holding in the 90s since =
early=20
  Oct</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Cons:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 =
yr =3D 54%, 3=20
  yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in =
as=20
  expected</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is =
in line with=20
  industry average (1.5)</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% =
of=20
  outstanding shares and insiders have been selling</FONT></LI>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has been on a very good run; are we =
seeing a=20
  climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase since =
the=20
  beginning of this run.</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Chart:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
  <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Broke out of cup w/o handle base =
formed by 12.65=20
  high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. =
Also=20
  gapped up 11/26 &amp; 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o =
since early=20
  Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. =
Price is=20
  hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough=20
  steam to break through the all-time high of around =
20?</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Support:</U></STRONG> Around =
50-day EMA=20
(14.72)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Resistance:</U></STRONG> =
Around all-time=20
high established 2Q1998 (~20)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BODY></HTML>

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