Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Mike Hofmann" <sfmcanslim@hotmail.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 18:39:38 -0800
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Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your input.
What other retailers would you put in the same niche a PIR? I looked =
through the list of specialty retailers and I didn't see one that fills =
quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means that there's =
really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who to =
compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections =
of department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how to =
evaluate their performance against their direct competition. Who would =
you say they're lagging behind?
Mike
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:07 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Hi Mike,
Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but =
only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing =
market in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating =
retailers in a meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, =
essentially a flat base since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred =
11/26/01 and is the only "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action =
since then is really a continuation of the move, so I'd say the real =
support is back at the pivot around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed =
by your 50 day EMA support figure.)
Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and growth =
had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" =
which is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture =
and the company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out =
nationally. I'm sure some of the action lately is in anticipation of =
their success. From a CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from =
the acquisition haven't found their way into the revenue and EPS figures =
in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the =
evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard in the group.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Hofmann=20
To: CANSLIM msg board=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:02 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR
Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty =
retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what =
I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary.
Today:
a.. Gapped up at open=20
b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x =
ADV)=20
c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20
d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased =
earnings guidance for the quarter=20
e.. Analysts are raving
Fundies:
Very strong overall
Pros:
a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20
b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20
c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20
d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two =
quarters=20
e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above =
industry avg (12.7%)=20
f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct
Cons:
a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, =
TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected=20
b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry =
average (1.5)=20
c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares =
and insiders have been selling=20
d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today =
marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of =
this run.
Chart:
a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, =
52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped =
up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. =
Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price =
is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20?
Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72)
Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your=20
input.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What other retailers would you put in =
the same=20
niche a PIR? I looked through the list of specialty retailers and I =
didn't see=20
one that fills quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means =
that=20
there's really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who =
to=20
compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections =
of=20
department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how=20
to evaluate their performance against their direct =
competition. Who=20
would you say they're lagging behind?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mike</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 4:07=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, =
but only=20
if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing market =
in a=20
new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers in a =
meaningful=20
way. Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a flat base since =
1/99.=20
The breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the only =
"official"=20
breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a continuation =
of the=20
move, so I'd say the real support is back at the pivot around 14ish. =
(This=20
seems to be confirmed by your 50 day EMA support figure.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and =
growth=20
had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" =
which is=20
based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture and the =
company=20
thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out nationally. I'm sure =
some of=20
the action lately is in anticipation of their success. From a CANSLIM =
point of=20
view, however, the results from the acquisition haven't found their =
way into=20
the revenue and EPS figures in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is =
still=20
sluggish. Until the evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a =
laggard in=20
the group.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsfmcanslim@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:sfmcanslim@hotmail.com">Mike=20
Hofmann</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM msg board</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 5:02=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Great action on PIR recently, =
especially today.=20
Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish =
industry, but=20
here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate =
commentary.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Today:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gapped up at open</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Established new high on extremely =
heavy volume=20
(more than 5x ADV)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ended day at upper end of day's =
trading=20
range</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Announced better than expected Dec =
sales and=20
increased earnings guidance for the quarter</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Analysts are =
raving</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Fundies:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><U><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT></U></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very strong overall</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Pros:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Heavy institutional buying in =
quarter ended=20
9/30/2001</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>EPS has held up in difficult =
economy (EPS up=20
9% in 3Q2001)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cash flow + (big time)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Low debt and big improvement in =
this area the=20
last two quarters</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ROE just shy of WON's 17% =
criterion (16.6%),=20
but is well above industry avg (12.7%)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RSI has been holding in the 90s =
since early=20
Oct</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Cons:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Annual earnings growth decreasing =
(5 yr =3D 54%,=20
3 yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q =
comes in as=20
expected</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but =
is in line=20
with industry average (1.5)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Insider ownership is poor at only =
1.5% of=20
outstanding shares and insiders have been selling</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has been on a very good run; are =
we seeing a=20
climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase =
since the=20
beginning of this run.</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Chart:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Broke out of cup w/o handle base =
formed by=20
12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong =
volume=20
11/8. Also gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action =
the 4th=20
b/o since early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence =
between=20
price and RSI. Price is hitting new highs while RSI has a little =
room to=20
grow. Does it have enough steam to break through the all-time high =
of=20
around 20?</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Support:</U></STRONG> =
Around 50-day=20
EMA (14.72)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Resistance:</U></STRONG> =
Around=20
all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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