Re: [CANSLIM] PIR

From: "DOUG CHIURATO" <xdzcx@email.msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 19:52:57 -0700
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I've read the responses of Katherine and Jans and I agree with their =
assessments. Refering to a weekly chart it looks like PIR did break out =
from a double bottom pattern on 11/26. The left side of the pattern =
starting Dec 00 and the center around June 01. DGO shows the co. expects =
Q4 FY02 earnings at .40 to .42. I believe that will be compared to the =
.38 cents for Q ended 02/28/01. Maybe it's better than what the analysts =
expected but it's not that great from a CANSLIM perspective. If the =
number came in at .65 or more I might be interested. Looking at the =
stock price move from 7.97 in Sept to 18.50 today it's clear somebody =
likes the stock. And I'm sure they would be more than happy to sell it =
to you as they finally take their profits and move on to something else. =
The drop from 18.50 to the 'support' of the 50dma at 14.5 is 22%. Too =
much for me. I agree that this stock is ready to breakdown. It broke the =
lower trend channel yesterday and today was a great effort to get back =
in the channel. I just don't see it staying there. The 50dma is =
beckoning.

  ----- Original Message -----=20
  From: Mike Hofmann=20
  To: CANSLIM msg board=20
  Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:02 PM
  Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR


  Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty =
retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what =
I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary.

  Today:
    a.. Gapped up at open=20
    b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x =
ADV)=20
    c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20
    d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased earnings =
guidance for the quarter=20
    e.. Analysts are raving
  Fundies:

  Very strong overall

  Pros:
    a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20
    b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20
    c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20
    d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two quarters=20
    e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well above =
industry avg (12.7%)=20
    f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct
  Cons:
    a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, =
TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as expected=20
    b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry =
average (1.5)=20
    c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares and =
insiders have been selling=20
    d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? Today =
marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning of =
this run.
  Chart:
    a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk =
low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped up =
11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. =
Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price =
is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20?

  Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72)

  Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)


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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>I've read the responses of Katherine =
and Jans and I=20
agree with their assessments. Refering to a weekly chart it looks like =
PIR did=20
break out from a double bottom pattern on 11/26. The left side of=20
the&nbsp;pattern starting Dec 00 and the center around June 01. DGO =
shows the=20
co. expects Q4 FY02 earnings at .40 to .42. I believe that will be =
compared to=20
the .38 cents for Q ended 02/28/01. Maybe it's better than what the =
analysts=20
expected but it's not that great from a CANSLIM perspective. If the =
number came=20
in at .65 or more I might be interested. Looking at the stock price move =
from=20
7.97 in Sept to 18.50 today it's clear somebody likes the stock. And I'm =
sure=20
they would be more than happy to sell it to you as they finally take =
their=20
profits and move on to something else. The drop from 18.50 to the =
'support' of=20
the 50dma at 14.5 is 22%. Too much for me. I agree that this stock is =
ready to=20
breakdown. It broke the lower trend channel yesterday and today was a =
great=20
effort to get back in the channel. I just don't see it staying there. =
The 50dma=20
is beckoning.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV=20
  style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
  <A title=3Dsfmcanslim@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:sfmcanslim@hotmail.com">Mike=20
  Hofmann</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM msg board</A> =
</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 4:02=20
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] PIR</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Great action on PIR recently, =
especially today.=20
  Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish =
industry, but=20
  here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate =
commentary.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Today:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gapped up at open</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Established new high on extremely =
heavy volume=20
    (more than 5x ADV)</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ended day at upper end of day's =
trading=20
    range</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Announced better than expected Dec =
sales and=20
    increased earnings guidance for the quarter</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Analysts are raving</FONT></LI></UL>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Fundies:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><STRONG><U><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT></U></STRONG>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very strong overall</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Pros:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Heavy institutional buying in =
quarter ended=20
    9/30/2001</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>EPS has held up in difficult economy =
(EPS up 9%=20
    in 3Q2001)</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cash flow + (big time)</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Low debt and big improvement in this =
area the=20
    last two quarters</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion =
(16.6%), but=20
    is well above industry avg (12.7%)</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RSI has been holding in the 90s =
since early=20
    Oct</FONT></LI></UL>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Cons:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 =
yr =3D 54%, 3=20
    yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes =
in as=20
    expected</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is =
in line=20
    with industry average (1.5)</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Insider ownership is poor at only =
1.5% of=20
    outstanding shares and insiders have been selling</FONT>=20
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has been on a very good run; are we =
seeing a=20
    climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase =
since the=20
    beginning of this run.</FONT></LI></UL>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Chart:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
  <UL>
    <LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Broke out of cup w/o handle base =
formed by 12.65=20
    high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume =
11/8. Also=20
    gapped up 11/26 &amp; 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o =
since=20
    early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price =
and RSI.=20
    Price is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does =
it have=20
    enough steam to break through the all-time high of around =
20?</FONT></LI></UL>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Support:</U></STRONG> =
Around 50-day=20
  EMA (14.72)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Resistance:</U></STRONG> =
Around=20
  all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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