Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Date: Thu, 3 Jan 2002 21:06:12 -0600
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Hi Mike,
PIR is tough to compare directly to anybody else except maybe CPWM (who =
has their own problems). In general, I would compare them to WSM (who =
owns Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Williams Sonoma, Hold Everything, =
Chambers, and I think a gardening mail order catalog), URBN and BBBY. In =
furniture, only ETH comes to mind as a maker of a "junior" line of =
furniture to compare to Cargo Furniture. In addition to these fairly =
direct competitors, I'd also compare them to specialty retailing in =
general. That would throw in such companies as GLYN, HLYW/BBI/MOVI, =
KMX/SAH, GPI, TSCO, ACMR/MIK, RGIS, BKS/BGP. This is a hugely diverse =
grouping, but the stocks I've listed have the "bare bones" requirements =
to make them CANSLIM quality. This certainly isn't an exhaustive =
listing. You could argue for comparison to WMT or KSS or TJX etc. But =
you get my drift. The fact that so many other competitors have "pieces" =
of their retailing concept just shows how they've drifted into ho-hum in =
the last couple of years. They've been aggressively cost cutting and =
trying to streamline. That's good, but I still like proof before putting =
my hard earned money on the line.
In general, if the growth rates for EPS and Revenues are less than 20% =
QoQ, I consider the company to be a laggard. The only time I would make =
exception is if they were making some kind of turnaround and after a =
period of declining EPS/Rev, were starting to show accelerating growth =
again. Look at the excellent growth of a company like BBBY and you'll =
see what I mean by way of comparison. Look at the turnaround in a =
company like URBN or MIK as an example. I'll send you a PIR chart with =
earnings numbers, as it'll be too big for the list.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Hofmann=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 8:39 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your input.
What other retailers would you put in the same niche a PIR? I looked =
through the list of specialty retailers and I didn't see one that fills =
quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means that there's =
really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out who to =
compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections =
of department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how to =
evaluate their performance against their direct competition. Who would =
you say they're lagging behind?
Mike
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 4:07 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PIR
Hi Mike,
Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, but =
only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing =
market in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating =
retailers in a meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, =
essentially a flat base since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred =
11/26/01 and is the only "official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action =
since then is really a continuation of the move, so I'd say the real =
support is back at the pivot around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed =
by your 50 day EMA support figure.)
Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and =
growth had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo =
Furniture" which is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler =
furniture and the company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this =
out nationally. I'm sure some of the action lately is in anticipation of =
their success. From a CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from =
the acquisition haven't found their way into the revenue and EPS figures =
in a meaningful way. QoQ and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the =
evidence is clearer, I'd consider this one a laggard in the group.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Mike Hofmann=20
To: CANSLIM msg board=20
Sent: Thursday, January 03, 2002 5:02 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] PIR
Great action on PIR recently, especially today. Granted, specialty =
retail may not be a particularly CANSLIMish industry, but here's what =
I've got on it. Sure would appreciate commentary.
Today:
a.. Gapped up at open=20
b.. Established new high on extremely heavy volume (more than 5x =
ADV)=20
c.. Ended day at upper end of day's trading range=20
d.. Announced better than expected Dec sales and increased =
earnings guidance for the quarter=20
e.. Analysts are raving
Fundies:
Very strong overall
Pros:
a.. Heavy institutional buying in quarter ended 9/30/2001=20
b.. EPS has held up in difficult economy (EPS up 9% in 3Q2001)=20
c.. Cash flow + (big time)=20
d.. Low debt and big improvement in this area the last two =
quarters=20
e.. ROE just shy of WON's 17% criterion (16.6%), but is well =
above industry avg (12.7%)=20
f.. RSI has been holding in the 90s since early Oct
Cons:
a.. Annual earnings growth decreasing (5 yr =3D 54%, 3 yr =3D =
10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if 4th Q comes in as =
expected=20
b.. PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), but is in line with industry =
average (1.5)=20
c.. Insider ownership is poor at only 1.5% of outstanding shares =
and insiders have been selling=20
d.. Has been on a very good run; are we seeing a climax top? =
Today marked by far the largest single day increase since the beginning =
of this run.
Chart:
a.. Broke out of cup w/o handle base formed by 12.65 high 9/4, =
52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong volume 11/8. Also gapped =
up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's action the 4th b/o since early Nov. =
Could be tired, but I like the divergence between price and RSI. Price =
is hitting new highs while RSI has a little room to grow. Does it have =
enough steam to break through the all-time high of around 20?
Support: Around 50-day EMA (14.72)
Resistance: Around all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)
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<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>PIR is tough to compare directly to anybody else except maybe CPWM =
(who has=20
their own problems). In general, I would compare them to WSM (who owns =
Pottery=20
Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Williams Sonoma, Hold Everything, Chambers, and =
I think=20
a gardening mail order catalog), URBN and BBBY. In furniture, only ETH =
comes to=20
mind as a maker of a "junior" line of furniture to compare to Cargo =
Furniture.=20
In addition to these fairly direct competitors, I'd also compare them to =
specialty retailing in general. That would throw in such companies as =
GLYN,=20
HLYW/BBI/MOVI, KMX/SAH, GPI, TSCO, ACMR/MIK, RGIS, BKS/BGP. This is a =
hugely=20
diverse grouping, but the stocks I've listed have the "bare bones" =
requirements=20
to make them CANSLIM quality. This certainly isn't an exhaustive =
listing. You=20
could argue for comparison to WMT or KSS or TJX etc. But you get my =
drift. The=20
fact that so many other competitors have "pieces" of their retailing =
concept=20
just shows how they've drifted into ho-hum in the last couple of years. =
They've=20
been aggressively cost cutting and trying to streamline. That's good, =
but I=20
still like proof before putting my hard earned money on the line.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>In general, if the growth rates for EPS and Revenues are less than =
20% QoQ,=20
I consider the company to be a laggard. The only time I would make =
exception is=20
if they were making some kind of turnaround and after a period of =
declining=20
EPS/Rev, were starting to show accelerating growth again. Look at the =
excellent=20
growth of a company like BBBY and you'll see what I mean by way of =
comparison.=20
Look at the turnaround in a company like URBN or MIK as an example. I'll =
send=20
you a PIR chart with earnings numbers, as it'll be too big for the =
list.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsfmcanslim@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:sfmcanslim@hotmail.com">Mike=20
Hofmann</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 8:39=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks Katherine. I appreciate your=20
input.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>What other retailers would you put in =
the same=20
niche a PIR? I looked through the list of specialty retailers and I =
didn't see=20
one that fills quite the same niche as PIR. It's possible that means =
that=20
there's really no market for that niche. I was trying to figure out =
who to=20
compare them to but they seem to be unique. They compete with sections =
of=20
department stores and small specialty stores. I'm not sure how=20
to evaluate their performance against their direct =
competition. Who=20
would you say they're lagging behind?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Mike</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 4:07=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Mike,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Specialty retail is often a space to find great CANSLIM stocks, =
but=20
only if the company is defining a new market, addressing an existing =
market=20
in a new way, has a particular niche, or is consolidating retailers =
in a=20
meaningful way. Pier One has been in a long slump, essentially a =
flat base=20
since 1/99. The breakout of that range occurred 11/26/01 and is the =
only=20
"official" breakout by CANSLIM rules. Action since then is really a=20
continuation of the move, so I'd say the real support is back at the =
pivot=20
around 14ish. (This seems to be confirmed by your 50 day EMA support =
figure.)</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Pier One has been trying to spice up the mix as their sales and =
growth=20
had become stale. In February 2001, they purchased "Cargo Furniture" =
which=20
is based in Ft. Worth. This is a retailer for toddler furniture and =
the=20
company thinks they can carve a niche and roll this out nationally. =
I'm sure=20
some of the action lately is in anticipation of their success. From =
a=20
CANSLIM point of view, however, the results from the acquisition =
haven't=20
found their way into the revenue and EPS figures in a meaningful =
way. QoQ=20
and YoY growth is still sluggish. Until the evidence is clearer, I'd =
consider this one a laggard in the group.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dsfmcanslim@hotmail.com =
href=3D"mailto:sfmcanslim@hotmail.com">Mike=20
Hofmann</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM msg board</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 03, =
2002 5:02=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
PIR</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Great action on PIR recently, =
especially=20
today. Granted, specialty retail may not be a particularly =
CANSLIMish=20
industry, but here's what I've got on it. Sure would appreciate=20
commentary.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Today:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Gapped up at open</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Established new high on =
extremely heavy=20
volume (more than 5x ADV)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Ended day at upper end of day's =
trading=20
range</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Announced better than expected =
Dec sales and=20
increased earnings guidance for the quarter</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Analysts are =
raving</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Fundies:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><U><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2></FONT></U></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Very strong overall</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Pros:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Heavy institutional buying in =
quarter ended=20
9/30/2001</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>EPS has held up in difficult =
economy (EPS up=20
9% in 3Q2001)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Cash flow + (big time)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Low debt and big improvement in =
this area=20
the last two quarters</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>ROE just shy of WON's 17% =
criterion (16.6%),=20
but is well above industry avg (12.7%)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>RSI has been holding in the 90s =
since early=20
Oct</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Cons:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Annual earnings growth =
decreasing (5 yr =3D=20
54%, 3 yr =3D 10%, TTM =3D -2%) ... but TTM should improve if =
4th Q comes in=20
as expected</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>PEG may be a bit high (~1.4), =
but is in line=20
with industry average (1.5)</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Insider ownership is poor at =
only 1.5% of=20
outstanding shares and insiders have been selling</FONT>=20
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Has been on a very good run; are =
we seeing a=20
climax top? Today marked by far the largest single day increase =
since=20
the beginning of this run.</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Chart:</U></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Broke out of cup w/o handle base =
formed by=20
12.65 high 9/4, 52-wk low of 7.97 on 9/21 and gap up on strong =
volume=20
11/8. Also gapped up 11/26 & 12/18. That makes today's =
action the=20
4th b/o since early Nov. Could be tired, but I like the =
divergence=20
between price and RSI. Price is hitting new highs while RSI has =
a little=20
room to grow. Does it have enough steam to break through the =
all-time=20
high of around 20?</FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><STRONG><U>Support:</U></STRONG> =
Around=20
50-day EMA (14.72)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><STRONG><U>Resistance:</U></STRONG> Around=20
all-time high established 2Q1998 (~20)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial=20
size=3D2></FONT> </DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY=
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