[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 5 Jan 2002 09:02:18 -0500
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Happy New Year, everyone, and may 2002 be far more prosperous for all =
than was 2001. Remember that 2002 is a palindrome year (reads the same =
forward and backward). Last happened in 1991, and won't happen again =
until 2112 (so for all here it's most likely your last palindrome year, =
might as well enjoy it).

THINGS I DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT!!
The NAPM (Nat'l Assn of Purchasing Managers) is now ISM (Institute of =
Supply Management). Almost overlooked a powerful report because I didn't =
know the new acronym. Reported on Wednesday that its index for December =
jumped to 48.2 from 44.5 (expected was 45.8). Anything over 50 indicates =
expansion in this most important index of major manufacturing activity =
(and that leads eventually to renewed employment, which used to warn of =
inflation and now signals consumer spending). This index has been below =
50 for 17 straight months (indicating contraction), and hit a ten year =
low in October. One month doesn't make a trend, but does bring us close =
to a shift from slowing contraction, to gaining expansion. Manufacturing =
has suffered the greatest damage from the economic slowdown, as well as =
losing the largest number of jobs. Within the overall index, the New =
Orders portion rose from 48.8 to 54.9, highest in 19 months. Inventories =
also continued to shrink from 37.9 to 37.7 (gotta shrink before =
manufacturers start increasing production, so these two pieces of the =
overall picture are both moving in the right direction).=20
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JUST WHEN WE NEEDED IT, SOME BEARISHNESS
ABC News/Money's survey of consumer confidence dropped in the final week =
of 2001, hitting negative 13 from a negative 3 at the end of November. =
Consumers with a positive opinion of their personal finances had dropped =
over the year to 56% from 66% in January. Willingness to spend appears =
to be considerably below the levels we saw in 2000, wonder if this will =
continue in 2002? Then again, last Friday we had the Consumer Confidence =
Index leaping to 93.7 from 84.9.=20
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SOME ONE LINERS
Merrill Lynch estimates that corporate spending on IT declined 1.1% in =
2001, but will grow by 3% in 2002, with strongest growth in Europe. =
Security, and disaster recovery, head the shopping list.

On the same page displayed at CNNMoney are the separate headlines =
"Poll:U.S. confidence slips" (from Wed, 1/3) and "U.S. confidence =
surges" (from 12/28). I guess that's what they mean by "news"?? But, =
gee, couldn't we at least take a few days more, if not a week or two, to =
do a total flip flop??=20
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- -------

JOBS AND LAYOFFS
Unemployment report for December confirms expectations, rate increased =
only to 5.8% while the number of jobs lost slowed from 371K in November =
to "only" 124K in December (if you were one of those 124K, it likely =
didn't feel like a good thing getting laid off right before the =
holidays). It was the smallest drop in jobs since August, and slightly =
below expectations. But hey, look on the bright side, good times must be =
just ahead since this is a lagging indicator. Layoff announcements also =
hit new highs for the year, solidly beating 1998. Interestingly, 40% of =
the layoff announcements for 2001 occurred after the 9/11 attacks, =
clearly showing the setback to economic recovery that this cowardly act =
caused. The big industry winner for the year, BTW, was =
Telecommunications, alone accounting for about 15% of the total. The =
good news was that announcements of layoffs during December was down =
from November.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES

Once again, the population of stocks I am reviewing here this week =
appears to be stable to slightly smaller, a little surprising to me with =
so many new highs being hit in the past week.

As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration, IMO. If I =
see a specific pattern such as a cup&handle, double bottom, LLUR, etc. I =
will say so.

AMMD - c&h, volume drying up in the handle
AMWD - c&h, deep cup, high handle
ASCA - stealth b/o Friday on light volume, some casino stocks appear to =
be weakening
ASFI - B4-, b/o Friday on ADV
AZR - b/o Friday on 1.5X ADV, see above comment on ASCA
BBY - c&h, high and volatile handle, volume drying up
BLL - LLUR
CAKE - B4+, c&h with high handle?
CECO - B4, volume drying up
CEFT - high handle??
CHBS - c&h with high handle?
CVBF - LLUR
DFXI - c&h, handle 4 weeks w/volume drying up
DLX - low earnings forecasts, but still a sweet LLUR
EBAY - c&h, slightly high handle?
EPIQ - B2+
FRED - developing into a LLUR
GFF - LLUR
HRBT - LLUR
ISLE - B5, b/o on light volume, at pivot, in my VR fund
KNGT - LLUR
KRON - B4+
LOGI - gap up Friday on 2.5X ADV
LOW - B5, declined on volume past week
MBFI - saucer
MCAF - volatile B3, profitable in 2001, expected to double earnings in =
2002, see my comment above on IT spending
MCO - LLUR
MCRI - long handle on deep cup, b/o Friday on 1.5X ADV
MHO - B4, home builder
MIK - B3, retailer
MIMS - LLUR
NFI - LLUR
NMTC - high handle
OFIX - B3
PENN - B3
PER - B3, volatile LLUR??
PETM - LLUR
PSAI - saucer
PTNX - B6
PTV - B4+
RACN - B3
SWTX - b/o Friday on over 3X ADV, in my VR fund, low priced
URBN - B2
UTSI - b/o Friday on over 2X ADV, within 5% of pivot

God bless America, and its military people

Happy Hunting,

Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley

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<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
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<STYLE></STYLE>
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy New Year, everyone, and may 2002 be far =
more=20
prosperous for all than was 2001. Remember that 2002 is a palindrome =
year (reads=20
the same forward and backward). Last happened in 1991, and won't happen =
again=20
until 2112 (so for all here it's most likely your last palindrome year, =
might as=20
well enjoy it).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>THINGS I DIDN'T KNOW =
ABOUT!!</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The NAPM (Nat'l Assn of Purchasing Managers) is =
now ISM=20
(Institute of Supply Management). Almost overlooked a powerful report =
because I=20
didn't know the new acronym. Reported on Wednesday that its index for =
December=20
jumped to 48.2 from 44.5 (expected was 45.8). Anything over 50 indicates =

expansion in this most important index of major manufacturing activity =
(and that=20
leads eventually to renewed employment, which used to warn of inflation =
and now=20
signals consumer spending). This index has been below 50 for 17 straight =
months=20
(indicating contraction), and hit a ten year low in October. One month =
doesn't=20
make a trend, but does bring us close to a shift from slowing =
contraction, to=20
gaining expansion. Manufacturing has suffered the greatest damage from =
the=20
economic slowdown, as well as losing the largest number of jobs. Within =
the=20
overall index, the New Orders portion rose from 48.8 to 54.9, highest in =
19=20
months. Inventories also continued to shrink from 37.9 to 37.7 (gotta =
shrink=20
before manufacturers start increasing production, so these two pieces of =
the=20
overall picture are both moving in the right direction).=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JUST WHEN WE NEEDED IT, SOME=20
BEARISHNESS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ABC News/Money's survey of consumer confidence =
dropped in=20
the final week of 2001, hitting negative 13 from a negative 3 at the end =
of=20
November. Consumers with a positive opinion of their personal finances =
had=20
dropped over the year to 56% from 66% in January. Willingness to spend =
appears=20
to be considerably below the levels we saw in 2000, wonder if this will =
continue=20
in 2002? Then again, last Friday we had the Consumer Confidence Index =
leaping to=20
93.7 from 84.9.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>SOME ONE LINERS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Merrill Lynch estimates that corporate spending =
on IT=20
declined 1.1% in 2001, but will grow by 3% in 2002, with strongest =
growth in=20
Europe. Security, and disaster recovery, head the shopping =
list.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>On the same page displayed at CNNMoney are the =
separate=20
headlines "Poll:U.S. confidence slips" (from Wed, 1/3) and "U.S. =
confidence=20
surges" (from 12/28). I guess that's what they mean by "news"?? But, =
gee,=20
couldn't we at least take a few days more, if not a week or two, to do a =
total=20
flip flop??=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JOBS AND LAYOFFS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Unemployment report for December confirms =
expectations,=20
rate increased only to 5.8% while the number of jobs lost slowed from =
371K in=20
November to "only" 124K in December (if you were one of those 124K, it =
likely=20
didn't feel like a good thing getting laid off right before the =
holidays). It=20
was the smallest drop in jobs since August, and slightly below =
expectations. But=20
hey, look on the bright side, good times must be just ahead since this =
is a=20
lagging indicator. Layoff announcements also hit new highs for the year, =
solidly=20
beating 1998. Interestingly, 40% of the layoff announcements for 2001 =
occurred=20
after the 9/11 attacks, clearly showing the setback to economic recovery =
that=20
this cowardly act caused. The big industry winner for the year, BTW, was =

Telecommunications, alone accounting for about 15% of the total. The =
good news=20
was that announcements of layoffs during December was down from =
November.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Once again, the population of stocks I am =
reviewing here=20
this week appears to be stable to slightly smaller, a little surprising =
to me=20
with so many new highs being hit in the past week.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" =
weeks=20
duration, IMO. If I see a specific pattern such as a cup&amp;handle, =
double=20
bottom, LLUR, etc. I will say so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AMMD - c&amp;h, volume drying up in the=20
handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AMWD - c&amp;h, deep cup, high =
handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ASCA - stealth b/o Friday on light volume, some =
casino=20
stocks appear to be weakening</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ASFI - B4-, b/o Friday on ADV</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AZR - b/o Friday on 1.5X ADV, see above comment =
on=20
ASCA</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BBY - c&amp;h, high and volatile handle, volume =
drying=20
up</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BLL - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CAKE - B4+, c&amp;h with high =
handle?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CECO - B4, volume drying up</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CEFT - high handle??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CHBS - c&amp;h with high handle?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CVBF - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DFXI - c&amp;h, handle 4 weeks w/volume drying=20
up</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - low earnings forecasts, but still a sweet=20
LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EBAY - c&amp;h, slightly high =
handle?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EPIQ - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FRED - developing into a LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GFF - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HRBT - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ISLE - B5, b/o on light volume, at pivot, in my =
VR=20
fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>KNGT - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>KRON - B4+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>LOGI - gap up Friday on 2.5X ADV</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>LOW - B5, declined on volume past =
week</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MBFI - saucer</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCAF - volatile B3, profitable in 2001, expected =
to double=20
earnings in 2002, see my comment above on IT spending</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCO - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCRI - long handle on deep cup, b/o Friday on =
1.5X=20
ADV</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MHO - B4, home builder</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MIK - B3, retailer</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MIMS - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NFI - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NMTC - high handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OFIX - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PENN - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PER - B3, volatile LLUR??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PSAI - saucer</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PTNX - B6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PTV - B4+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RACN - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SWTX - b/o Friday on over 3X ADV, in my VR fund, =
low=20
priced</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>URBN - B2</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>UTSI - b/o Friday on over 2X ADV, within 5% of=20
pivot</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America, and its military =
people</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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