Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD?
Date: Sat, 12 Jan 2002 23:00:18 EST
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Tom, John et al:
Concerning KKD: To me it looks like it's in its 3rd stage base-whether
it will reach the fouth...? Tom's remarks concerning it "valuations" makes
me wonder whether it is strong enough to enter a fourth (and then a fifth
[which wouldn't hurt after looking at all these bases]). In any event,
Friday's Investors Corner published an article that may be worth considering:
Investor's Corner, Friday, January 11, 2002, Count A Stock's Bases Before You
Buy BY JONAH KERI
Want to avoid buying a stock at its peak? Try counting bases.
A stock entering a third-, fourth- or fifth-stage base faces very high risks
of breakdown. And after a huge run-up, the trip down can prove long and
painful.
Yet many investors fail to spot late-stage bases. One reason: They envision a
new base forming only after a stock has doubled or tripled from its last
consolidation.
Here's an eye-opener: A stock need rise only 25% or more from its pivot to
trigger a new-stage base above it. As long as the new base doesn't undercut
the lows of the prior consolidation, add another checkmark to your list of
bases.
Few stocks ever get to form late-stage bases. Only the best can break out of
well-formed bases again and again, stacking gains on top of gains.
Giants of the past like Cisco Systems (CSCO ) wielded enough sales and
earnings clout to make massive gains. Yet even elite stocks can turn tail
eventually.
Be wary of a stock, generally one known for slower growth, that suddenly
starts building a third- or fourth-stage base. After investors have long
ignored a sector, it may suddenly find new strength, even in a bad market.
But once the parade of money switches course again, such a stock can take a
deep fall, which in effect resets its base count.
jans
In a message dated 1/12/2002 12:22:49 AM Eastern Standard Time,
stkguru@netside.net writes:
<< Wouldn't make my criteria as a LLUR due to its extreme volatility. If I
had the time to sit in front of a monitor for some weeks, might be tempted to
try trading it short term, tho.
As I have mentioned before, I have a problem with its valuation, even tho I
love their glazed donuts hot off the rack. They need 13 cents to just meet
the full year forecast, looks possible but much less likely they can
surprise. And must average better than 15 cents each qtr next year again to
just meet forecasts. Strong growth, well executed business plan for
aggressive growth, but I keep coming back to valuations.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 9:57 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD?
Hi John,
Mixed bag. Terribly high PE as Andreas pointed out yesterday. But printing
higher highs and higher lows. An LLUR candidate in the making? or a head &
shoulders top starting to form? Can't tell...but I wouldn't touch it unless
it were clearer. If in since 11/14 B/O, nothing's violated that except a
brief dip below the pivot shortly after.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Cefaloni, John L Jr. [AMSTA-AR-WEA]
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 8:48 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD?
Others have asked about this one recently, but there hasn't been much
discussion.
Anyone have opinions on KKD's chart and it's legitimacy as a CANSLIM
breakout candidate?
Thanks,
John C. >>
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