Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 01:50:19 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Boucher again ... "Tom Worley"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19BD4.A7C40CE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable CONFESSION SEASON We are now in a critical time period preceding the actual reporting of = Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and small are supposed to be = adjusting investor's expectations to what they will actually report, vs. = what they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My subjective = observation was that the news was far more positive than negative, with = over half of the companies saying anything saying that they would exceed = lowered expectations. And most of the rest were saying they would meet = the current expectations. Just read a report off Reuters, which confirms = my observation. So far in preparation for Q4, 44% of the announcements = have warned they will miss forecasts. The positive spin? For Q3, the = number was 63%, for Q2 it was 68%, and 70% for Q1. And 25% of this = confession season are positive, compared to only 16% average for the = prior 3 quarters. According to First Call, earnings for the 500 corps in = the S&P500 are still expected to drop 22%, worst record in ten years.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ONE LINERS A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at home with his parents, = managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million dollars over the = internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the "investor's" = money to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a fool and his = money are soon parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", "greed = will get you in the end". Just think, he may be CEO of some future = Enron by the time he's 30!! Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his = account in Costa Rica, so doubtful the "investors" will learn much of a = lesson. Still, nice to know we are raising computer literate kids who = are obviously smarter than the adults. Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new records for 2001. Final = numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way surpassed = expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just over a = $5 billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero = financing deals now largely ended. The new President and COO of Int'l House of Pancakes is Ms. Julia = Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 years ago at the age = of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a waitress at, you = guessed it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!!=20 First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll of private economists as = marking the end of recession. 37% picked March, 26% picked February, 22% = picked January, and a bold 7% picked last December. They projected a = rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th quarter GDP is a 1% = decline, which would confirm a recession by traditional standards. New unemployment claims continued to drop faster than expectations. Four = week moving average is stable, and the number continuing on unemployment = dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff announcements (or = expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and Merrill Lynch (9,000). Wholesale inventories continued to fall in November, down 1.1% after = dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory before manufacturers = restart or increase production, and start hiring new people) Latest reports show applications for mortgages for home purchases are at = an all time high, implying strength for the new and used home sales = figures in the next few months. Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected drop of 0.7%, expected was a = drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food elements, it still = dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the core rate of 0.1%. Gee, = maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed rate cut? And despite 11 = Fed rate cuts in the past year, the 15 year mortgage rate is still only = 5 basis points below where it was a year ago. So who's making all the = money on refinancing and new mortgages? - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- MR. GREENSPAN I haven't written much about Mr. G for some time, mostly because I saw = little on which to comment, it was business as usual, with no change. I = didn't catch much of his speech Friday on the economy, but what I got = was significant. First, he expects to see proof of an economic recovery = by summer (that means it would have to already be in progress). Second, = he specifically commented: "hypothesis of an accelerated productivity = trend had not been tested in the contracting phase of a business cycle. = Recent developments have provided that test, and the early returns = certainly look favorable to the hypothesis." That comment, along with = several others, leads me to conclude that the Feds will cut another 25 = basis points on Jan 30. It will likely be the last cut, but I would also = not expect to see any rate hikes until the end of the summer at the = earliest. I also expect that when rate hikes occur, and they will, they = will be small, occur slowly and cautiously until not only our economic = growth is well established, but we also see improvement in the world = economy.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ON "M" I am probably the wrong person to talk about the market trend this week, = as every major index was down. Despite that, my IRA gained 4.5% for the = week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the trend is up. Not = withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were developing a = head and shoulders pattern appear to have been unfounded, with the = possible exception of the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving averages on = both up/down volume and new highs/lows are positive, and expectations of = an improving economy, and recovering corporate profits, are strong. Thus = I expect a lot more sidelined money to continue flowing into stocks = during the next month or two.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES While the population of stocks I review for my own personal investing = (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been growing nicely, the = population of stocks I review for this column appears to be stagnant, = not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this week. As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks = duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup and handle, double = bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially CANSLIM pattern), = etc, then I will say so. ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 DMA ALLY - B2 BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume still high, funds already own = 37% BLUD - B2+ CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague cup CVBF - LLUR DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings forecasts ELTE - B3 FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on Friday on volume, be careful FMAR - c&h, low price and volume JNC - LLUR MCRS - 2nd base on the handle MHO - B5 OFIX - B4 PETM - LLUR POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR fund RYAN - LLUR TIER - B4 URBN - B3 Happy hunting, God bless America, and its military people, Use of this email for any purpose other than personal is prohibited = without prior permission of the author. Commercial use without = permission is specifically prohibited. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19BD4.A7C40CE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>CONFESSION=20 SEASON</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>We are now in a critical time period preceding = the actual=20 reporting of Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and small are = supposed to=20 be adjusting investor's expectations to what they will actually report, = vs. what=20 they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My subjective = observation was=20 that the news was far more positive than negative, with over half of the = companies saying anything saying that they would exceed lowered = expectations.=20 And most of the rest were saying they would meet the current = expectations. Just=20 read a report off Reuters, which confirms my observation. So far in = preparation=20 for Q4, 44% of the announcements have warned they will miss forecasts. = The=20 positive spin? For Q3, the number was 63%, for Q2 it was 68%, and 70% = for Q1.=20 And 25% of this confession season are positive, compared to only 16% = average for=20 the prior 3 quarters. According to First Call, earnings for the 500 = corps in the=20 S&P500 are still expected to drop 22%, worst record in ten years.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>ONE = LINERS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at home = with his=20 parents, managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million dollars = over=20 the internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the = "investor's" money=20 to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a fool and his money are = soon=20 parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", "greed will get you in = the=20 end". Just think, he may be CEO of some future Enron by the time = he's 30!!=20 Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his account in Costa Rica, so = doubtful the=20 "investors" will learn much of a lesson. Still, nice to know we are = raising=20 computer literate kids who are obviously smarter than the = adults.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new = records for=20 2001. Final numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way = surpassed=20 expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just over a = $5=20 billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero financing = deals=20 now largely ended.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The new President and COO of Int'l House of = Pancakes is=20 Ms. Julia Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 years ago = at the=20 age of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a waitress at, you = guessed=20 it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!! </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll of = private=20 economists as marking the end of recession. 37% picked March, 26% picked = February, 22% picked January, and a bold 7% picked last December. They = projected=20 a rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th quarter GDP is a 1% = decline,=20 which would confirm a recession by traditional standards.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims continued to drop faster = than=20 expectations. Four week moving average is stable, and the number = continuing on=20 unemployment dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff = announcements=20 (or expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and Merrill Lynch=20 (9,000).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories continued to fall in = November, down=20 1.1% after dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory before=20 manufacturers restart or increase production, and start hiring new=20 people)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Latest reports show applications for mortgages = for home=20 purchases are at an all time high, implying strength for the new and = used home=20 sales figures in the next few months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected drop of = 0.7%,=20 expected was a drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food = elements, it=20 still dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the core rate of = 0.1%. Gee,=20 maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed rate cut? And = despite=20 11 Fed rate cuts in the past year, the 15 year mortgage rate is still = only 5=20 basis points below where it was a year ago. So who's making all the = money on=20 refinancing and new mortgages?</FONT><FONT face=3DArial></DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>MR. = GREENSPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I haven't written much about Mr. G for some = time, mostly=20 because I saw little on which to comment, it was business as usual, with = no=20 change. I didn't catch much of his speech Friday on the economy, = but what=20 I got was significant. First, he expects to see proof of an economic = recovery by=20 summer (that means it would have to already be in progress). Second, he=20 specifically commented: </FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman">"<FONT=20 color=3D#0000ff>hypothesis of an accelerated productivity trend had not = been=20 tested in the contracting phase of a business cycle. Recent = developments=20 have provided that test, and the early returns certainly look favorable = to the=20 hypothesis</FONT>." That comment, along with several others, leads me to = conclude that the Feds will cut another 25 basis points on Jan 30. It = will=20 likely be the last cut, but I would also not expect to see any rate = hikes until=20 the end of the summer at the earliest. I also expect that when rate = hikes occur,=20 and they will, they will be small, occur slowly and cautiously until not = only=20 our economic growth is well established, but we also see improvement in = the=20 world economy.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>ON = "M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am probably the wrong person to talk about the = market=20 trend this week, as every major index was down. Despite that, my IRA = gained 4.5%=20 for the week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the trend is up. Not=20 withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were developing a = head and=20 shoulders pattern appear to have been unfounded, with the possible = exception of=20 the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving averages on both up/down volume and = new=20 highs/lows are positive, and expectations of an improving economy, and=20 recovering corporate profits, are strong. Thus I expect a lot more = sidelined=20 money to continue flowing into stocks during the next month or two.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20 WANNABEES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While the population of stocks I review for my = own=20 personal investing (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been = growing=20 nicely, the population of stocks I review for this column appears to be=20 stagnant, not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this=20 week.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line = "B"ase of=20 "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup and = handle,=20 double bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially CANSLIM = pattern),=20 etc, then I will say so.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 = DMA</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ALLY - B2</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume still = high,=20 funds already own 37%</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BLUD - B2+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague = cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CVBF - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings=20 forecasts</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on Friday = on volume,=20 be careful</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FMAR - c&h, low price and = volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>JNC - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCRS - 2nd base on the handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MHO - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OFIX - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR = fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RYAN - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TIER - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>URBN - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America, and its military = people,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Use of this email for any purpose other than = personal is=20 prohibited without prior permission of the author. Commercial use = without=20 permission is specifically prohibited.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0038_01C19BD4.A7C40CE0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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