Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction/EFTs
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 11:55:18 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00CA_01C19C29.2BBD4120 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Here's a good way to look at the relative performance of the markets = since key dates: I like to see these in bar chart view, but you can use line charts as = well, as both are available: Look at comparisons from key dates to Friday's close (1/11/02): Bull market top: 3/21/2001 (202 days) Latest market peak: 5/21/2001 (160 days) Follow-thru day: 9/28/2001 (73 days) This will give you a comparison between Russell 2000 (small cap), = MidCap, Large Cap, Naz100 (large cap tech), Dow and total market = proxies: http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWM,MDY,QQQ,DIA,IYY There is a bar at the bottom of the chart that you can stretch to the = days right and left that you want to consider once the chart is built. = Roll your cursor over the chart and the key information for each index = will pop up. This will give you a comparison between styles Sm Cap Growth, Mid Cap = Growth, Lg Cap Growth,Sm Cap Val, Mid Cap Val, Lg Cap Val. Again, run = these from the key date until today and you will be able to make your = own conclusions about growth/value. http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IJT,IJK,IVW,IJS,IJJ,IVE For a more general comparison between growth, value, total market, try: http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWZ,IWW,IYY Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ann=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 12:05 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction/EFTs Thanks for your response, Andreas. I think I see what you are saying. I invested in a SmallCap EFT recently, and was wondering whether I = should have! ----- Original Message ----- From: "Andreas Himmelreich" <judgejimmy@web.de> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 12:27 PM Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] market direction : You do not have to buy stocks with high PEs. Just go into value and = growth and : let the BOs of ultra High PE stocks fail. : : David Ryan says in Market Wizards that the PE (or the Value) is = important (even Won does not say it) for : the probabillity of a good breakout. : : I do belive that the market right now differenciates, its not a = nutty bull market like in the 90s where : everything went up, no matter its fundamentals (in some stages of = the bull market). : : But the market is not so bad, that it sends down all stocks, it differenciates, thats all... : : I do actually not care about the market direction too much. The only question that is interesting: : Is there an area which is profitable? (so far only on the long side) = There where 100000s of long chances even in 2000 and 2001. : : Are there Industry Groups that set up a bull market for its member = stocks? If yes, money is around the corner. Pick it up and ride it. : Just look at stuff like TARO, MDCI, AHMH, BZH in 2001... : : December was pretty much flat on the Indexes, but it was a great = month for a lot of canslim stocks. : : I acutally would like it if the Nasdaq would be still on 2000 Points = at the end of the year, as long : fundamentally sound stocks go up and grap goes down. : : The only moment you have to be aware of is the moment gets so bad, = that nothing works, every Industry Group : goes down pricewise, everything rolls over, no matter how good the fundamentals of the stocks. Then and only then : it is time to get flat. In 2001 that was from August to the = beginning of October. : : Sorry to be so opinionated. : : Andreas : : : > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht----- : > Von: rolf hertenstein [SMTP:rolfh@mindspring.com] : > Gesendet am: Sunday, January 13, 2002 5:54 PM : > An: canslim@lists.xmission.com : > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction : > : > I'm still concerned about the overall market valuation, which = remains high. : > Yes, as earnings improve, market P/Es should lower, assuming = prices : > don't accelerate faster than earnings improve. : > : > Even though WON gives little credence to P/Es, I'm adding a P : > (CANSLIMP ?) for the time being. I think many investors will be = spooked : > by high P/Es (e.g., KKD) and tend towards solid companies with relatively : > low P/Es. Just one new investor's opinion. : > : > Rolf : > : > ----- Original Message ----- : > From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com> : > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> : > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 9:31 AM : > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction : > : > : > > I have been saying all along this is going to be a = sloooooooowwwww, : > > recovery. Well into the year. All we have to do is *read* the = news. I : > listen : > > to a local analyst here named Larry King, he's with Smith = Barney. A few : > > weeks ago he was calling for a quick market return. Just Friday = he changed : > > course and now calls for growth but very slow. Analysts jobs = from : > brokerage : > > houses are to soften the tone of bad news. They can even make it = sound : > good. : > > Sure there are stocks out there that the savvy trader may pick, = but on : > > average not. It takes months to years for rate and tax cuts to = filter into : > > the economy. : > > : > > DanF : > > : > > : > > ----- Original Message ----- : > > From: "Kent Norman" <kent_norman@yahoo.com> : > > To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@xmission.com> : > > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 10:11 AM : > > Subject: [CANSLIM] market direction : > > : > > : > > > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow : > > > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for : > > > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are : > > > meaningful? : > > > : > > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with : > > > where the market is heading, just where it is. : > > > : > > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get : > > > out of the pool? : > > > : > > > Kent Norman : > > > : > > > : > > > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D : > > > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming. : > > > : > > > __________________________________________________ : > > > Do You Yahoo!? : > > > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! Mail! : > > > http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/ : > > > : > > > - : > > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : > > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : > > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : > > > : > > : > > : > > - : > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : > > : > : > : > - : > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : : - : -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" : -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or : -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. : - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_00CA_01C19C29.2BBD4120 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV> <DIV>Here's a good way to look at the relative performance of the = markets since=20 key dates:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I like to see these in bar chart view, but you can use line charts = as well,=20 as both are available:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Look at comparisons from key dates to Friday's close = (1/11/02):</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Bull market top: 3/21/2001 (202 days)</DIV> <DIV>Latest market peak: 5/21/2001 (160 days)</DIV> <DIV>Follow-thru day: 9/28/2001 (73 days)</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This will give you a comparison between Russell 2000 (small cap), = MidCap,=20 Large Cap, Naz100 (large cap tech), Dow and total market proxies:</DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWM,MDY,QQQ,DIA,IYY= ">http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWM,MDY,QQQ,DIA,IYY</A><A= =20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+RUT,MDY,SPY,QQQ,DIA= ,IYY"></A></DIV> <DIV>There is a bar at the bottom of the chart that you can stretch to = the days=20 right and left that you want to consider once the chart is built. Roll = your=20 cursor over the chart and the key information for each index will pop = up.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>This will give you a comparison between styles Sm Cap Growth, Mid = Cap=20 Growth, Lg Cap Growth,Sm Cap Val, Mid Cap Val, Lg Cap Val. Again, run = these from=20 the key date until today and you will be able to make your own = conclusions about=20 growth/value.</DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IJT,IJK,IVW,IJS,IJJ= ,IVE">http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IJT,IJK,IVW,IJS,IJJ,I= VE</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>For a more general comparison between growth, value, total market,=20 try:</DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWZ,IWW,IYY">http:/= /stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+IWZ,IWW,IYY</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine<A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/wb.exe?Perf.web+ijt,ijk,iwf,ijs,ijj= ,ive"></A></DIV></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dannholly@mediaone.net = href=3D"mailto:annholly@mediaone.net">Ann</A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 13, 2002 = 12:05=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] market=20 direction/EFTs</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Thanks for your response, Andreas. I think I see what = you are=20 saying.<BR>I invested in a SmallCap EFT recently, and was wondering = whether I=20 should<BR>have!<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: "Andreas = Himmelreich"=20 <<A = href=3D"mailto:judgejimmy@web.de">judgejimmy@web.de</A>><BR>To: = <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>Sent:=20 Sunday, January 13, 2002 12:27 PM<BR>Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] market=20 direction<BR><BR><BR>: You do not have to buy stocks with high PEs. = Just go=20 into value and growth<BR>and<BR>: let the BOs of ultra High PE stocks=20 fail.<BR>:<BR>: David Ryan says in Market Wizards that the PE (or the = Value)=20 is important<BR>(even Won does not say it) for<BR>: the probabillity = of a good=20 breakout.<BR>:<BR>: I do belive that the market right now = differenciates, its=20 not a nutty bull<BR>market like in the 90s where<BR>: everything went = up, no=20 matter its fundamentals (in some stages of the = bull<BR>market).<BR>:<BR>: But=20 the market is not so bad, that it sends down all stocks, = it<BR>differenciates,=20 thats all...<BR>:<BR>: I do actually not care about the market = direction too=20 much. The only<BR>question that is interesting:<BR>: Is there an area = which is=20 profitable? (so far only on the long side) There<BR>where 100000s of = long=20 chances even in 2000 and 2001.<BR>:<BR>: Are there Industry Groups = that set up=20 a bull market for its member stocks?<BR>If yes, money is around the = corner.=20 Pick it up and ride it.<BR>: Just look at stuff like TARO, MDCI, AHMH, = BZH in=20 2001...<BR>:<BR>: December was pretty much flat on the Indexes, but it = was a=20 great month for<BR>a lot of canslim stocks.<BR>:<BR>: I acutally would = like it=20 if the Nasdaq would be still on 2000 Points at<BR>the end of the year, = as=20 long<BR>: fundamentally sound stocks go up and grap goes = down.<BR>:<BR>: The=20 only moment you have to be aware of is the moment gets so bad, = that<BR>nothing=20 works, every Industry Group<BR>: goes down pricewise, everything rolls = over,=20 no matter how good the<BR>fundamentals of the stocks. Then and only = then<BR>:=20 it is time to get flat. In 2001 that was from August to the beginning=20 of<BR>October.<BR>:<BR>: Sorry to be so opinionated.<BR>:<BR>:=20 Andreas<BR>:<BR>:<BR>: > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----<BR>: = > Von:=20 rolf hertenstein [SMTP:rolfh@mindspring.com]<BR>: > Gesendet am: = Sunday,=20 January 13, 2002 5:54 PM<BR>: > An: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>:=20 > Betreff: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction<BR>: ><BR>: > I'm = still=20 concerned about the overall market valuation, which = remains<BR>high.<BR>: >=20 Yes, as earnings improve, market P/Es should lower, assuming = prices<BR>: >=20 don't accelerate faster than earnings improve.<BR>: ><BR>: > = Even though=20 WON gives little credence to P/Es, I'm adding a P<BR>: > (CANSLIMP = ?) for=20 the time being. I think many investors will be spooked<BR>: > = by high=20 P/Es (e.g., KKD) and tend towards solid companies = with<BR>relatively<BR>: >=20 low P/Es. Just one new investor's opinion.<BR>: ><BR>: = > =20 Rolf<BR>: ><BR>: > ----- Original Message -----<BR>: > From: = "Dan=20 Forant" <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:dforant1@nycap.rr.com">dforant1@nycap.rr.com</A>><BR>: = >=20 To: <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>:=20 > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 9:31 AM<BR>: > Subject: Re: = [CANSLIM]=20 market direction<BR>: ><BR>: ><BR>: > > I have been saying = all=20 along this is going to be a sloooooooowwwww,<BR>: > > recovery. = Well=20 into the year. All we have to do is *read* the news. I<BR>: > = listen<BR>:=20 > > to a local analyst here named Larry King, he's with Smith = Barney.=20 A<BR>few<BR>: > > weeks ago he was calling for a quick market = return.=20 Just Friday he<BR>changed<BR>: > > course and now calls for = growth but=20 very slow. Analysts jobs from<BR>: > brokerage<BR>: > > = houses are to=20 soften the tone of bad news. They can even make it sound<BR>: > = good.<BR>:=20 > > Sure there are stocks out there that the savvy trader may = pick, but=20 on<BR>: > > average not. It takes months to years for rate and = tax cuts=20 to filter<BR>into<BR>: > > the economy.<BR>: > ><BR>: > = >=20 DanF<BR>: > ><BR>: > ><BR>: > > ----- Original = Message=20 -----<BR>: > > From: "Kent Norman" <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:kent_norman@yahoo.com">kent_norman@yahoo.com</A>><BR>: = >=20 > To: "CANSLIM" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:canslim@xmission.com">canslim@xmission.com</A>><BR>: = > >=20 Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 10:11 AM<BR>: > > Subject: = [CANSLIM]=20 market direction<BR>: > ><BR>: > ><BR>: > > > = Many=20 "experts" are expecting the market to follow<BR>: > > > = tradition and=20 rise in January and go flat to down for<BR>: > > > a few = months. Do=20 you think this weeks 5 down days are<BR>: > > > = meaningful?<BR>: >=20 > ><BR>: > > > I know WON says we don't need to be = concerned=20 with<BR>: > > > where the market is heading, just where it = is.<BR>:=20 > > ><BR>: > > > So where is it? Is the party over? = Should=20 we all get<BR>: > > > out of the pool?<BR>: > > = ><BR>: >=20 > > Kent Norman<BR>: > > ><BR>: > > ><BR>: = > >=20 > =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D<BR>: > > > Opportunities always look = bigger going than=20 coming.<BR>: > > ><BR>: > > >=20 __________________________________________________<BR>: > > > = Do You=20 Yahoo!?<BR>: > > > Send FREE video emails in Yahoo! = Mail!<BR>: >=20 > > <A=20 = href=3D"http://promo.yahoo.com/videomail/">http://promo.yahoo.com/videoma= il/</A><BR>:=20 > > ><BR>: > > > -<BR>: > > > -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>: = >=20 > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>: > = > >=20 -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>: = > >=20 ><BR>: > ><BR>: > ><BR>: > > -<BR>: > > -To = subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>: = >=20 > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>: > >=20 -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>: = >=20 ><BR>: ><BR>: ><BR>: > -<BR>: > -To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>: = > -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>: > -"unsubscribe=20 canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>:<BR>: -<BR>: -To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>: = - -In the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>: -"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR>:<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To = subscribe/unsubscribe,=20 email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_00CA_01C19C29.2BBD4120-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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