AW: [CANSLIM] market direction

From: Andreas Himmelreich <judgejimmy@web.de>
Subject: AW: [CANSLIM] market direction
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 18:27:53 +0100
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You do not have to buy stocks with high PEs. Just go into value and growth and
let the BOs of ultra High PE stocks fail.

David Ryan says in Market Wizards that the PE (or the Value) is important (even Won does not say it) for
the probabillity of a good breakout.

I do belive that the market right now differenciates, its not a nutty bull market like in the 90s where 
everything went up, no matter its fundamentals (in some stages of the bull market).

But the market is not so bad, that it sends down all stocks, it differenciates, thats all...

I do actually not care about the market direction too much. The only question that is interesting:
Is there an area which is profitable? (so far only on the long side) There where 100000s of long chances even in 2000 and 2001.

Are there Industry Groups that set up a bull market for its member stocks? If yes, money is around the corner. Pick it up and ride it.
Just look at stuff like TARO, MDCI, AHMH, BZH in 2001...

December was pretty much flat on the Indexes, but it was a great month for a lot of canslim stocks.

I acutally would like it if the Nasdaq would be still on 2000 Points at the end of the year, as long 
fundamentally sound stocks go up and grap goes down.

The only moment you have to be aware of is the moment gets so bad, that nothing works, every Industry Group
goes down pricewise, everything rolls over, no matter how good the fundamentals of the stocks. Then and only then
it is time to get flat. In 2001 that was from August to the beginning of October.

Sorry to be so opinionated.

Andreas


> -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> Von:	rolf hertenstein [SMTP:rolfh@mindspring.com]
> Gesendet am:	Sunday, January 13, 2002 5:54 PM
> An:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Betreff:	Re: [CANSLIM] market direction
> 
> I'm still concerned about the overall market valuation, which remains high.
> Yes, as earnings improve, market P/Es should lower, assuming prices
> don't accelerate faster than earnings improve.
> 
> Even though WON gives little credence to P/Es, I'm adding a P
> (CANSLIMP ?) for the time being.  I think many investors will be spooked
> by high P/Es (e.g., KKD) and tend towards solid companies with relatively
> low P/Es.  Just one new investor's opinion.
> 
>  Rolf
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dan Forant" <dforant1@nycap.rr.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 9:31 AM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] market direction
> 
> 
> > I have been saying all along this is going to be a sloooooooowwwww,
> > recovery. Well into the year. All we have to do is *read* the news. I
> listen
> > to a local analyst here named Larry King, he's with Smith Barney. A few
> > weeks ago he was calling for a quick market return. Just Friday he changed
> > course and now calls for growth but very slow. Analysts jobs from
> brokerage
> > houses are to soften the tone of bad news. They can even make it sound
> good.
> > Sure there are stocks out there that the savvy trader may pick, but on
> > average not. It takes months to years for rate and tax cuts to filter into
> > the economy.
> >
> > DanF
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Kent Norman" <kent_norman@yahoo.com>
> > To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@xmission.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 10:11 AM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] market direction
> >
> >
> > > Many "experts" are expecting the market to follow
> > > tradition and rise in January and go flat to down for
> > > a few months. Do you think this weeks 5 down days are
> > > meaningful?
> > >
> > > I know WON says we don't need to be concerned with
> > > where the market is heading, just where it is.
> > >
> > > So where is it? Is the party over? Should we all get
> > > out of the pool?
> > >
> > > Kent Norman
> > >
> > >
> > > =====
> > > Opportunities always look bigger going than coming.
> > >
> > > __________________________________________________
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