Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD?
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 15:16:56 -0600
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Hi all,
Here's the summary page from the IBD seminar on analysis of tops. It =
shows the typical pattern of 1st, 2nd, 3rd stage bases before failure.
http://makeashorterlink.com/?U11123B4
I think jans pointed this out a minute ago, but be careful to =
distinguish between normal "wiggles" on the ascent up and a "true" base =
where the stock pauses, consolidates its prior up move and then breaks =
out to a fresh advance. Also remember that big corrections reset the =
base count.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Spencer48@aol.com=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 2:28 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions on KKD?
Rolf:
I've had trouble identifying relevant bases in the stock's past =
because=20
I never understood that WON gave a precise definition of 3rd, 4th or =
5th=20
stage bases. =20
According to Friday's 1/11/02 Investors Corner (which I'm basing =
my=20
analysis of KKD on), KKD is in the throes of its 3rd base (I suppose =
that one=20
can see weakness in the stock in this type of pattern- =
afterwards-because if=20
the stock is basing for the 3 or 4th time, then it will likely be an =
LLUR. =20
And-and as I understood Tom pointing out-once the LLUR changes it's =
angle, it=20
is likely topping out (this would make it consistent with WON's =
admonition to=20
avoid stocks with 4th or 5th stage bases). =20
=20
The salient passages of the Investors Corner article for me was =
this:=20
"... A stock need rise only 25% or more from its pivot to trigger a =
new-stage=20
base above it. As long as the new base doesn't undercut the lows of =
the prior=20
consolidation, add another checkmark to your list of bases. Few stocks =
ever=20
get to form late-stage bases. Only the best can break out of =
well-formed=20
bases again and again, stacking gains on top of gains."
My view of KKD and the bases it has formed comes from DG (the =
daily=20
version. I imagine that day bases would affect the stock more in the=20
short-term, and weekly bases would affect the stock more in the=20
intermediate-to-long term). Anyway, these are the bases that I see: =
1st=20
Base: 10/23-11/1; 2nd Base: 11/20-1129; 3rd Base: Began 12/28. As far =
as=20
differentiating between "a sloppy base" and those that aren't, I don't =
know=20
how this can be done-except afterwards, and with a lot of =
subjectivity. I=20
must admit, though, the Investor Corner definition would make it =
appear that=20
long cups (with a right LLUR leg that leads to a right lip) would make =
the=20
Handle of this C&H suspect. So,then, one wonders if this means that =
an LLUR=20
which leads to the Handle of a Long Cup can be disregarded as pointing =
to a=20
potentially weak stock-if the LLUR has 3rd, 4th, or 5th stage bases =
(and, I=20
would think that nearly ALL LLURs are subject to these bases, which I =
would=20
call: Corrections or Retracements. Thus, when does a new base count =
begin: =20
When the stock has Broken Out of its Handle?
jans
In a message dated 1/13/2002 8:44:39 AM Eastern Standard Time,=20
rolfh@mindspring.com writes:
<< For my edification, could you tell me the period in which you see =
the 3
bases?
Depending on whether I look at 6 month, 1 year, or 2 year charts, I =
see
a variety of what I might call a base, some sloppy, some not.
=20
Thanks!
Rolf
>>
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<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Hi all,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Here's the summary page from the IBD seminar on analysis of tops. =
It shows=20
the typical pattern of 1st, 2nd, 3rd stage bases before failure.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
href=3D"http://makeashorterlink.com/?U11123B4">http://makeashorterlink.co=
m/?U11123B4</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I think jans pointed this out a minute ago, but be careful to =
distinguish=20
between normal "wiggles" on the ascent up and a "true" base where the =
stock=20
pauses, consolidates its prior up move and then breaks out to a=20
fresh advance. Also remember that big corrections reset the base=20
count.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DSpencer48@aol.com=20
href=3D"mailto:Spencer48@aol.com">Spencer48@aol.com</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 13, 2002 =
2:28=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Opinions =
on=20
KKD?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>Rolf:<BR><BR> I've had trouble=20
identifying relevant bases in the stock's past because <BR>I never =
understood=20
that WON gave a precise definition of 3rd, 4th or 5th <BR>stage =
bases. =20
<BR><BR> According to Friday's 1/11/02 =
Investors=20
Corner (which I'm basing my <BR>analysis of KKD on), KKD is in the =
throes of=20
its 3rd base (I suppose that one <BR>can see weakness in the stock in =
this=20
type of pattern- afterwards-because if <BR>the stock is basing for the =
3 or=20
4th time, then it will likely be an LLUR. <BR>And-and as I =
understood=20
Tom pointing out-once the LLUR changes it's angle, it <BR>is likely =
topping=20
out (this would make it consistent with WON's admonition to <BR>avoid =
stocks=20
with 4th or 5th stage bases). <BR> =20
<BR> The salient passages of the Investors =
Corner=20
article for me was this: <BR>"... A stock need rise only 25% or more =
from its=20
pivot to trigger a new-stage <BR>base above it. As long as the new =
base=20
doesn't undercut the lows of the prior <BR>consolidation, add another=20
checkmark to your list of bases. Few stocks ever <BR>get to form =
late-stage=20
bases. Only the best can break out of well-formed <BR>bases again and =
again,=20
stacking gains on top of gains."<BR><BR> My =
view of=20
KKD and the bases it has formed comes from DG (the daily =
<BR>version. I=20
imagine that day bases would affect the stock more in the =
<BR>short-term, and=20
weekly bases would affect the stock more in the =
<BR>intermediate-to-long=20
term). Anyway, these are the bases that I see: 1st =
<BR>Base:=20
10/23-11/1; 2nd Base: 11/20-1129; 3rd Base: Began 12/28. As far =
as=20
<BR>differentiating between "a sloppy base" and those that aren't, I =
don't=20
know <BR>how this can be done-except afterwards, and with a lot of=20
subjectivity. I <BR>must admit, though, the Investor Corner =
definition=20
would make it appear that <BR>long cups (with a right LLUR leg that =
leads to a=20
right lip) would make the <BR>Handle of this C&H suspect. =
So,then,=20
one wonders if this means that an LLUR <BR>which leads to the Handle =
of a Long=20
Cup can be disregarded as pointing to a <BR>potentially weak stock-if =
the LLUR=20
has 3rd, 4th, or 5th stage bases (and, I <BR>would think that nearly =
ALL LLURs=20
are subject to these bases, which I would <BR>call: Corrections or=20
Retracements. Thus, when does a new base count =
begin: =20
<BR>When the stock has Broken Out of its =
Handle?<BR><BR>jans<BR><BR><BR>In a=20
message dated 1/13/2002 8:44:39 AM Eastern Standard Time, <BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:rolfh@mindspring.com">rolfh@mindspring.com</A>=20
writes:<BR><BR><< For my edification, could you tell me the =
period in=20
which you see the 3<BR> bases?<BR> Depending on whether I =
look at 6=20
month, 1 year, or 2 year charts, I see<BR> a variety of what I =
might call=20
a base, some sloppy, some =
not.<BR> <BR> Thanks!<BR> =20
Rolf<BR> >><BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
"<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
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