Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 13 Jan 2002 16:45:43 -0500
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Hi Steve,
The population of stocks I review each weekend for my WWW is a composite =
of several sources. I can't mention them all, as one may sue me or cut =
off my services. But suffice it to say, I am looking for stocks with =
both RS and EPS of 80 or better, and close to or at their 12 month =
highs.
The actual chart I look at in order to make my short list are DGO =
charts. The comments and opinions are strictly my own.
For my own personal investing, I use CBS Market Watch to screen for =
small caps hitting new highs. I have tried several screens at DGO beta =
site but without any consistent success so far.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Steve=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 12:12 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Tom,
Thanks again for your summary and attached watch list once again you =
have added to my watch list. I have two questions regarding your WWW.
1. What is(are) the criteria(s) that you filter on to get your =
original list prior to paring it down to the below? I have a small =
handful of filters that I thought were pretty good but only half of your =
list below even shows up on my original master list (about 300 long for =
weekend review).=20
2. You have often mentioned about your own personal investing style is =
in addition to CANSLIM (this group) and you select low priced/low =
vol/small caps. Are you involved in other groups similiar to this group =
for your other style of investing? I would also be interested in what =
filter criteria you use to find those. (I have been using PEG ratios of =
< .65, avol<50K but then I miss out on those without earnings...)
Thanks for any coaching you can provide!
Steve
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2002 1:50 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
CONFESSION SEASON
We are now in a critical time period preceding the actual reporting =
of Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and small are supposed to be =
adjusting investor's expectations to what they will actually report, vs. =
what they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My subjective =
observation was that the news was far more positive than negative, with =
over half of the companies saying anything saying that they would exceed =
lowered expectations. And most of the rest were saying they would meet =
the current expectations. Just read a report off Reuters, which confirms =
my observation. So far in preparation for Q4, 44% of the announcements =
have warned they will miss forecasts. The positive spin? For Q3, the =
number was 63%, for Q2 it was 68%, and 70% for Q1. And 25% of this =
confession season are positive, compared to only 16% average for the =
prior 3 quarters. According to First Call, earnings for the 500 corps in =
the S&P500 are still expected to drop 22%, worst record in ten years.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
ONE LINERS
A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at home with his parents, =
managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million dollars over the =
internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the "investor's" =
money to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a fool and his =
money are soon parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", "greed =
will get you in the end". Just think, he may be CEO of some future =
Enron by the time he's 30!! Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his =
account in Costa Rica, so doubtful the "investors" will learn much of a =
lesson. Still, nice to know we are raising computer literate kids who =
are obviously smarter than the adults.
Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new records for 2001. Final =
numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way surpassed =
expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just over a =
$5 billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero =
financing deals now largely ended.
The new President and COO of Int'l House of Pancakes is Ms. Julia =
Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 years ago at the age =
of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a waitress at, you =
guessed it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!!=20
First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll of private economists =
as marking the end of recession. 37% picked March, 26% picked February, =
22% picked January, and a bold 7% picked last December. They projected a =
rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th quarter GDP is a 1% =
decline, which would confirm a recession by traditional standards.
New unemployment claims continued to drop faster than expectations. =
Four week moving average is stable, and the number continuing on =
unemployment dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff =
announcements (or expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and =
Merrill Lynch (9,000).
Wholesale inventories continued to fall in November, down 1.1% after =
dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory before manufacturers =
restart or increase production, and start hiring new people)
Latest reports show applications for mortgages for home purchases =
are at an all time high, implying strength for the new and used home =
sales figures in the next few months.
Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected drop of 0.7%, expected was =
a drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food elements, it =
still dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the core rate of =
0.1%. Gee, maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed rate cut? And =
despite 11 Fed rate cuts in the past year, the 15 year mortgage rate is =
still only 5 basis points below where it was a year ago. So who's making =
all the money on refinancing and new mortgages?
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
MR. GREENSPAN
I haven't written much about Mr. G for some time, mostly because I =
saw little on which to comment, it was business as usual, with no =
change. I didn't catch much of his speech Friday on the economy, but =
what I got was significant. First, he expects to see proof of an =
economic recovery by summer (that means it would have to already be in =
progress). Second, he specifically commented: "hypothesis of an =
accelerated productivity trend had not been tested in the contracting =
phase of a business cycle. Recent developments have provided that test, =
and the early returns certainly look favorable to the hypothesis." That =
comment, along with several others, leads me to conclude that the Feds =
will cut another 25 basis points on Jan 30. It will likely be the last =
cut, but I would also not expect to see any rate hikes until the end of =
the summer at the earliest. I also expect that when rate hikes occur, =
and they will, they will be small, occur slowly and cautiously until not =
only our economic growth is well established, but we also see =
improvement in the world economy.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
ON "M"
I am probably the wrong person to talk about the market trend this =
week, as every major index was down. Despite that, my IRA gained 4.5% =
for the week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the trend is up. Not =
withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were developing a =
head and shoulders pattern appear to have been unfounded, with the =
possible exception of the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving averages on =
both up/down volume and new highs/lows are positive, and expectations of =
an improving economy, and recovering corporate profits, are strong. Thus =
I expect a lot more sidelined money to continue flowing into stocks =
during the next month or two.=20
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- ---
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES
While the population of stocks I review for my own personal =
investing (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been growing =
nicely, the population of stocks I review for this column appears to be =
stagnant, not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this week.
As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks =
duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup and handle, double =
bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially CANSLIM pattern), =
etc, then I will say so.
ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 DMA
ALLY - B2
BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume still high, funds already =
own 37%
BLUD - B2+
CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague cup
CVBF - LLUR
DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings forecasts
ELTE - B3
FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on Friday on volume, be careful
FMAR - c&h, low price and volume
JNC - LLUR
MCRS - 2nd base on the handle
MHO - B5
OFIX - B4
PETM - LLUR
POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR fund
RYAN - LLUR
TIER - B4
URBN - B3
Happy hunting,
God bless America, and its military people,
Use of this email for any purpose other than personal is prohibited =
without prior permission of the author. Commercial use without =
permission is specifically prohibited.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Steve,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I review each weekend =
for my WWW=20
is a composite of several sources. I can't mention them all, as one may =
sue me=20
or cut off my services. But suffice it to say, I am looking for stocks =
with both=20
RS and EPS of 80 or better, and close to or at their 12 month=20
highs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The actual chart I look at in order to make my =
short list=20
are DGO charts. The comments and opinions are strictly my =
own.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>For my own personal investing, I use CBS Market =
Watch to=20
screen for small caps hitting new highs. I have tried several screens at =
DGO=20
beta site but without any consistent success so far.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstepor@yahoo.com href=3D"mailto:stepor@yahoo.com">Steve</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 13, 2002 =
12:12=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's =
Weekend=20
Weeview</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Tom,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks again for your summary and =
attached watch=20
list once again you have added to my watch list. I have two =
questions=20
regarding your WWW.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>1. What is(are) the criteria(s) that =
you filter=20
on to get your original list prior to paring it down to the =
below? I=20
have a small handful of filters that I thought were pretty good but =
only half=20
of your list below even shows up on my original master list (about 300 =
long=20
for weekend review). </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>2. You have often mentioned about =
your own=20
personal investing style is in addition to CANSLIM (this group) and=20
you select low priced/low vol/small caps. Are you involved =
in other=20
groups similiar to this group for your other style of investing? =
I would=20
also be interested in what filter criteria you use to find =
those. (I=20
have been using PEG ratios of < .65, avol<50K but then I miss =
out on=20
those without earnings...)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Thanks for any coaching you can=20
provide!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>Steve</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, January 13, =
2002 1:50=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's =
Weekend=20
Weeview</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>CONFESSION=20
SEASON</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>We are now in a critical time period =
preceding the=20
actual reporting of Fourth Quarter results. Corporations big and =
small are=20
supposed to be adjusting investor's expectations to what they will =
actually=20
report, vs. what they (or analysts) have already said to expect. My=20
subjective observation was that the news was far more positive than=20
negative, with over half of the companies saying anything saying =
that they=20
would exceed lowered expectations. And most of the rest were saying =
they=20
would meet the current expectations. Just read a report off Reuters, =
which=20
confirms my observation. So far in preparation for Q4, 44% of the=20
announcements have warned they will miss forecasts. The positive =
spin? For=20
Q3, the number was 63%, for Q2 it was 68%, and 70% for Q1. And 25% =
of this=20
confession season are positive, compared to only 16% average for the =
prior 3=20
quarters. According to First Call, earnings for the 500 corps in the =
S&P500 are still expected to drop 22%, worst record in ten =
years.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>ONE =
LINERS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A 17 year old in San Diego, still living at =
home with=20
his parents, managed to scam 1,000 "investors" out of over a million =
dollars=20
over the internet by promising returns of 250% to 2500% using the=20
"investor's" money to bet on sports events. Lots of quotes here, "a =
fool and=20
his money are soon parted", "there's a sucker born every minute", =
"greed=20
will get you in the end". Just think, he may be CEO of some =
future=20
Enron by the time he's 30!! Nearly $900,000 was recovered from his =
account=20
in Costa Rica, so doubtful the "investors" will learn much of a =
lesson.=20
Still, nice to know we are raising computer literate kids who are =
obviously=20
smarter than the adults.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Bankruptcy filings are on track to set new =
records for=20
2001. Final numbers announced in early March. Consumer debt way =
surpassed=20
expectations in November, up over $16 billion, expected was just =
over a $5=20
billion jump. Primary cause was purchases of cars due the zero =
financing=20
deals now largely ended.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The new President and COO of Int'l House of =
Pancakes=20
is Ms. Julia Stewart. She got her start in the restaurant biz 30 =
years ago=20
at the age of 16, filling coffee cups and taking orders as a =
waitress at,=20
you guessed it, IHOP. Way to go, Julia. Congrats!! </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>First quarter 2002 has been picked in a poll =
of=20
private economists as marking the end of recession. 37% picked =
March, 26%=20
picked February, 22% picked January, and a bold 7% picked last =
December.=20
They projected a rise in GDP of 0.7%. Consensus forecast for 4th =
quarter GDP=20
is a 1% decline, which would confirm a recession by traditional=20
standards.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims continued to drop =
faster than=20
expectations. Four week moving average is stable, and the number =
continuing=20
on unemployment dropped by 170,000. And this is despite new layoff=20
announcements (or expectations) by Ford (10,000), GM (5,000), and =
Merrill=20
Lynch (9,000).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories continued to fall in =
November,=20
down 1.1% after dropping 1.2% in October. (gotta deplete inventory =
before=20
manufacturers restart or increase production, and start hiring new=20
people)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Latest reports show applications for =
mortgages for=20
home purchases are at an all time high, implying strength for the =
new and=20
used home sales figures in the next few months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Friday's PPI report showed an unexpected =
drop of 0.7%,=20
expected was a drop of 0.2%. Excluding the volatile energy and food=20
elements, it still dropped 0.1% compared to an expected rise in the =
core=20
rate of 0.1%. Gee, maybe there's still some hope for a Jan 30 Fed =
rate=20
cut? And despite 11 Fed rate cuts in the past year, the =
15 year=20
mortgage rate is still only 5 basis points below where it was a year =
ago. So=20
who's making all the money on refinancing and new =
mortgages?</FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial></DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>MR.=20
GREENSPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I haven't written much about Mr. G for some =
time,=20
mostly because I saw little on which to comment, it was business as =
usual,=20
with no change. I didn't catch much of his speech Friday on =
the=20
economy, but what I got was significant. First, he expects to see =
proof of=20
an economic recovery by summer (that means it would have to already =
be in=20
progress). Second, he specifically commented: </FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman">"<FONT color=3D#0000ff>hypothesis of an =
accelerated=20
productivity trend had not been tested in the contracting phase of a =
business cycle. Recent developments have provided that test, =
and the=20
early returns certainly look favorable to the hypothesis</FONT>." =
That=20
comment, along with several others, leads me to conclude that the =
Feds will=20
cut another 25 basis points on Jan 30. It will likely be the last =
cut, but I=20
would also not expect to see any rate hikes until the end of the =
summer at=20
the earliest. I also expect that when rate hikes occur, and they =
will, they=20
will be small, occur slowly and cautiously until not only our =
economic=20
growth is well established, but we also see improvement in the world =
economy.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>ON =
"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I am probably the wrong person to talk about =
the=20
market trend this week, as every major index was down. Despite that, =
my IRA=20
gained 4.5% for the week and my VR Fund gained 2.8%, so for me the =
trend is=20
up. Not withstanding that, the worries that the major indexes were=20
developing a head and shoulders pattern appear to have been =
unfounded, with=20
the possible exception of the NASDAQ 100. The ten day moving =
averages on=20
both up/down volume and new highs/lows are positive, and =
expectations of an=20
improving economy, and recovering corporate profits, are strong. =
Thus I=20
expect a lot more sidelined money to continue flowing into stocks =
during the=20
next month or two.=20
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20
WANNABEES</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While the population of stocks I review for =
my own=20
personal investing (low priced, thinly traded small caps) has been =
growing=20
nicely, the population of stocks I review for this column appears to =
be=20
stagnant, not a surprise given the retreat by all markets this=20
week.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx is my shorthand for a flat =
line "B"ase=20
of "x" weeks duration. If I see a specific pattern, such as a cup =
and=20
handle, double bottom, LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right, not officially =
CANSLIM=20
pattern), etc, then I will say so.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACS - LLUR, closely following the 50 =
DMA</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ALLY - B2</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BBY - 5 week handle on the cup, but volume =
still high,=20
funds already own 37%</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BLUD - B2+</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CEFT - 3+ week handle on a vague =
cup</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CVBF - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - very smooth LLUR despite low earnings=20
forecasts</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - volatile LLUR attempting a b/o on =
Friday on=20
volume, be careful</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FMAR - c&h, low price and =
volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>JNC - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCRS - 2nd base on the handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MHO - B5</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OFIX - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>POSS - B2 below the high, in my VR =
fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RYAN - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TIER - B4</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>URBN - B3</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America, and its military=20
people,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Use of this email for any purpose other than =
personal=20
is prohibited without prior permission of the author. Commercial use =
without=20
permission is specifically prohibited.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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