RE: [CANSLIM] ASIA?

From: "Dave" <drubin@i-2000.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ASIA?
Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 10:00:13 -0500
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Yes, I wasn't looking at ASIA as a long-term hold.  Sometimes I will
stretch or bypass CANSLIM rules to buy strong leaders for the long term,
when I think the chart has stabilized and reached some pivotal support
level. But with ASIA it was strictly a trading opportunity.

I caught UTSI on its first breakout in early Dec. I assume you mean the
recent action confirms a failure of the B2 breakout on 1/3. The
distribution yesterday scares me, and may lead me to lock profits on the
next sign of strength.

As for ASIA, it's difficult to say. Right now second-stage bases are
failing regularly. The market is clearly not as strong as it was when this
rally started. Although I still think the Nasdaq will rise modestly over
the next few months, I'm more cautious then I was last week.

As for comparing ASIA with DFXI, I agree, it's not a valid comparison. It
was simply to say that sloppy handles can and do work from time to time.
As for DFXI, it's holding its breakout pretty well, for now...

- --
Dave

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
> Sent: Monday, January 14, 2002 10:03 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASIA?
>
>
> Thanks for the retrospective, Dave.
>
> With your thinking that "the Nasdaq will continue to do well for a few
> months ", does this mean you were just trying to trade it for a
> short term
> profit?  Would a long term investment perspective have changed
> either your
> entry point, or your tight stop?
>
> While UTSI is in a different group (Telecom Equip vs Internet-Network
> Sec/Solutions), today's action looks to me to be a failed breakout being
> confirmed. In both cases, though, the chart suggests to me that
> the 50 DMA
> will coincide with the short prior base, and give support. Should ASIA
> settle into another short base in the 17-18 range, would you again be a
> buyer? What would trigger your decision to act?
>
> Be careful of using how a stock (DFXI) in an unrelated group is
> behaving to
> analyze another stock's chart. Stay within the group, or at
> least related
> groups, for this.
>
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Dave" <drubin@i-2000.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Monday, January 14, 2002 10:11 AM
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ASIA?
>
>
> > In a nutshell, with ASIA I convinced myself to take a gamble with the
> > chart formation because there were things I liked about the stock:
> >
> >  - Although the Internet/Network Security group is not in favor now, I
> > feel it will be one of the first tech groups to recover, and recover
> > strongly.
> >
> >  - China continues to be a growth area for Internet and wireless
> > technology. Other stocks with significant interest in China,
> such as UTSI,
> > have broken out recently.
> >
> >  - I think the Nasdaq will continue to do well for a few
> months and I'm
> > trying to put some cash to work.
> >
> >  - Despite the sloppy handle, I still think it is a great
> chart. DFXI had
> > a sloppier handle and is still holding its breakout. ASIA's
> volume on 1/7
> > and beyond was well above average.
> >
> >  - Having missed the ASIA breakout on 1/7 I had it on my
> watchlist for a
> > pullback.
> >
> > In hindsight, buying breakout pullbacks, especially in this
> market, is not
> > a safe strategy. The high volume alone should have made me
> more cautious.
> > But I decided to take the risk, using a tight stop.
> >
> > This group was very helpful by pointing out the weaknesses that I knew
> > about, and some that I didn't. Although I'm not a CANSLIM
> purist and will
> > use other strategies from time to time, I was clearly buying ASIA as a
> > CANSLIM breakout and this group helped me to put that decision in the
> > right perspective.
> >
> > I'm still watching ASIA. Although technically the breakout
> failed I think
> > it is doing well to stay above 19.6, the low on breakout day.
> If the last
> > few days of market weakness is just a brief pullback in an
> uptrend, ASIA
> > still has a good chance of moving higher.
> >
> > Nevertheless, in this market, I have seen yet another example that
> > second-chance buy opportunities usually do not work out. If you miss a
> > breakout, move on. If you catch a breakout and the stock
> shows signs of
> > weakness, be very cautious. This is not a bull market by any stretch.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
> > > Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 11:58 PM
> > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] ASIA?
> > >
> > >
> > > Dave, the only way you truly lose is if you are not able to
> > > learn from the
> > > experience. I know I would be interested, and suspect many
> other members
> > > would also be interested, in you doing a retrospective piece on
> > > ASIA. There
> > > has been lots of discussion and feedback today and prior. Would be
> > > interested in your thoughts on the experience, what you may
> have learned
> > > from the group's comments you didn't know or see when you
> > > bought it, what
> > > you may do differently on this or another stock in the future,
> > > and what else
> > > you may have learned from it.
> > >
> > > Tom Worley
> > > stkguru@netside.net
> > > AIM: TexWorley
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Dave" <drubin@i-2000.com>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, January 11, 2002 9:41 AM
> > > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ASIA?
> > >
> > >
> > > > You all win, I lose. This is clearly a failed breakout
> now. Out with a
> > > > small loss, and another lesson learned :)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Dave
> > > >
> > > >
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