Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:40:54 -0500
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Hi Katherine,
I took a quick look around, as I was curious about this anomaly. Several =
items I noted:
MCAF notes their tax rate in 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, =
keeping them from guiding earnings guidance even higher.
They are the antivirus of choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also =
be an antispam for that source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just =
how much revenues they are taking in from MS for this.
They indicate they are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer =
(with WIN XP) came with Norton from=20
Symantec.
Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual results, fundies, =
and forward looking statements look stronger for SYMC.
Sell on news, MCAF results older than SYMC.
I see little "dumb" about still owning MCAF in light of the past few =
months, especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my =
position some in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough to =
buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have a =
position.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly....
Will post a technical post analysis later.
I should just call this DYII, FIC revisited...
Katherine
Jan 17 2002
11:21 AM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): Robertson =
Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings report last =
night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit following =
co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers =
grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident =
that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would =
not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.=20
Jan 16 2002
5:26 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During its conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 =
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of =
$80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of =
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and better =
than EPS consensus of $0.22).=20
Jan 16 2002
4:43 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 (Dec) =
earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus of $0.05; =
revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I took a quick look around, as I was curious =
about this=20
anomaly. Several items I noted:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCAF notes their tax rate in 2002 expected to =
jump to 38%=20
from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings guidance even =
higher.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>They are the antivirus of choice for MSN's =
Hotmail. Wish=20
they would also be an antispam for that source. And with Hotmail being =
free,=20
wonder just how much revenues they are taking in from MS for =
this.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>They indicate they are bundled with Windows XP, =
but my new=20
computer (with WIN XP) came with Norton from <BR>Symantec.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but =
actual=20
results, fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for=20
SYMC.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sell on news, MCAF results older than =
SYMC.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I see little "dumb" about still owning MCAF in =
light of=20
the past few months, especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might =
have cut=20
my position some in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough to =
buy it=20
in late Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have a=20
position.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, =
2002 11:31=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] MCAF</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF =
anomaly....</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Will post a technical post analysis later.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I should just call this DYII, FIC revisited...</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 17 =
2002<BR>11:21 AM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><A =
class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN"><FONT=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eaf4f1" color=3D#000000>In =
Play</FONT></A></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 =
- -7.44 (-23%):=20
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following =
MCAF's=20
earnings report last night; believes that the quality of revenue =
has=20
eroded a bit following co's change in license revenue structure; =
notes=20
that in Q4 subscribers grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. =
While=20
firm remains confident that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks =
stk=20
remains expensive, and would not be constructive on the name =
until a=20
move to $20 or below.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4w vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 =
2002<BR>5:26 PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7w vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%"><A class=3Dtd7w=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN"><FONT=20
color=3D#000000>In Play</FONT></A></TD>
<TD width=3D"78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During its=20
conference call, the co guides higher Q1 =
rev/EPS to $19.1=20
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections =
are=20
revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the =
range of=20
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, =
and <FONT=20
color=3D#228822>better than</FONT> EPS consensus of=20
$0.22).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 =
2002<BR>4:43 PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><A =
class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN"><FONT=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND-COLOR: #eaf4f1" color=3D#000000>In =
Play</FONT></A></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 =
- -4.11:=20
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the =
Multex=20
consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of =
$17.8=20
mln.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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