Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:03:36 -0600
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Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost focus....more =
in the post analysis
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gyorgy Veszpremi=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise =
after the last 3 down days on increased volume.=20
=20
Tom Worley wrote:=20
Hi Katherine, I took a quick look around, as I was curious about =
this anomaly. Several items I noted: MCAF notes their tax rate in 2002 =
expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings =
guidance even higher. They are the antivirus of choice for MSN's =
Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that source. And with =
Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues they are taking in =
from MS for this. They indicate they are bundled with Windows XP, but my =
new computer (with WIN XP) came with Norton from=20
Symantec. Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual =
results, fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for SYMC. =
Sell on news, MCAF results older than SYMC. I see little "dumb" about =
still owning MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you =
bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few =
days, but if I had been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early =
Oct, likely I would still now have a position. Tom Worley=20
stkguru@netside.net=20
AIM: TexWorley=20
----- Original Message -----
From: Katherine Malm
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... =
Will post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII, =
FIC revisited... Katherine =20
Jan 17 2002=20
11:21 AM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): =
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings =
report last night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit =
following co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 =
subscribers grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains =
confident that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, =
and would not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.=20
=20
Jan 16 2002=20
5:26 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During its conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 =
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of =
$80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of =
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and better =
than EPS consensus of $0.22).=20
=20
Jan 16 2002=20
4:43 PM In Play McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 =
(Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus of =
$0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.=20
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charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost =
focus....more in=20
the post analysis</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3DGyorgyV@rcmachine.com =
href=3D"mailto:GyorgyV@rcmachine.com">Gyorgy=20
Veszpremi</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, =
2002 11:01=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
MCAF</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was =
not a=20
surprise after the last 3 down days on increased volume. <BR> =20
<P>Tom Worley wrote:=20
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=3D"CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT face=3DArial>Hi Katherine,</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>I =
took a quick=20
look around, as I was curious about this anomaly. Several items I=20
noted:</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>MCAF notes their tax rate in =
2002=20
expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding earnings =
guidance even higher.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>They are the =
antivirus of=20
choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for =
that=20
source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues =
they are=20
taking in from MS for this.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>They =
indicate they=20
are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came =
with=20
Norton from</FONT> <BR><FONT =
face=3DArial>Symantec.</FONT> <FONT=20
face=3DArial>Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual =
results,=20
fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for=20
SYMC.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>Sell on news, MCAF results =
older than=20
SYMC.</FONT> <FONT face=3DArial>I see little "dumb" about still =
owning=20
MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you bought it =
cheap.=20
Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few days, but if =
I had=20
been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I =
would still=20
now have a position.</FONT> Tom Worley <BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A> <BR>AIM: =
TexWorley=20
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, =
2002=20
11:31 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM]=20
MCAF</DIV> Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF=20
anomaly.... Will post a technical post analysis later. I =
should=20
just call this DYII, FIC revisited... Katherine =20
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 17 2002 =
<BR>11:21=20
AM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000><A class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) =
24.85 -7.44=20
(-23%): Robertson Stephens is raising several issues =
following=20
MCAF's earnings report last night; believes that the quality =
of=20
revenue has eroded a bit following co's change in license =
revenue=20
structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers grew by only 125K vs =
200K=20
sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident that 2002 =
numbers are=20
beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would not be=20
constructive on the name until a move to $20 or=20
below.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4w vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 2002 =
<BR>5:26=20
PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7w vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%"><FONT =
color=3D#000000><A=20
class=3Dtd7w=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD width=3D"78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- =
During=20
its conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to =
$19.1=20
mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections =
are revs=20
of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn, and EPS should be in the =
range of=20
$0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev consensus of $85.82 =
mln, and=20
<FONT color=3D#228822>better than</FONT> EPS consensus of=20
$0.22).</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellPadding=3D2 width=3D754 border=3D0>
<CAPTION>
<TBODY><BR></TBODY></CAPTION>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD class=3Dtd4g vAlign=3Dtop noWrap width=3D"12%">Jan 16 2002 =
<BR>4:43=20
PM</TD>
<TD class=3Dtd7g vAlign=3Dtop width=3D"10%" rowSpan=3D2><FONT=20
color=3D#000000><A class=3Dtd7g=20
=
href=3D"http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=3DIN">In=20
Play</A></FONT></TD>
<TD class=3Dr2 width=3D"78%" rowSpan=3D2>McAfee.com (MCAF) =
32.29 -4.11:=20
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than =
the=20
Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the =
consensus=20
of $17.8=20
mln.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BO=
DY></HTML>
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