Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF

From: Gyorgy Veszpremi <GyorgyV@rcmachine.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:09:11 -0600
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Unfortunately, nowadays any every news that is not excellent can decimate a
stock.

Katherine Malm wrote:

>  Understood...all the sell signals were there...just lost focus....more in the
> post analysis
>
>      ----- Original Message -----
>      From: Gyorgy Veszpremi
>      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>      Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01 AM
>      Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF
>       If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a
>      surprise after the last 3 down days on increased volume.
>
>
>      Tom Worley wrote:
>
>     > Hi Katherine, I took a quick look around, as I was curious about
>     > this anomaly. Several items I noted: MCAF notes their tax rate in
>     > 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding
>     > earnings guidance even higher. They are the antivirus of choice
>     > for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that
>     > source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues
>     > they are taking in from MS for this. They indicate they are
>     > bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came
>     > with Norton from
>     > Symantec. Both beat expectations by a wide margin, but actual
>     > results, fundies, and forward looking statements look stronger for
>     > SYMC. Sell on news, MCAF results older than SYMC. I see little
>     > "dumb" about still owning MCAF in light of the past few months,
>     > especially if you bought it cheap. Maybe I might have cut my
>     > position some in the past few days, but if I had been smart enough
>     > to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely I would still now have
>     > a position. Tom Worley
>     > stkguru@netside.net
>     > AIM: TexWorley
>     >
>     >      ----- Original Message -----
>     >      From: Katherine Malm
>     >      To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>     >      Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31 AM
>     >      Subject: [CANSLIM] MCAF
>     >       Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF
>     >      anomaly.... Will post a technical post analysis later. I
>     >      should just call this DYII, FIC revisited... Katherine
>     >

              Jan 17      In Play  McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%): Robertson Stephens is raising
              2002                 several issues following MCAF's earnings report last night; believes
              11:21 AM             that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit following co's change in
                                   license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers grew by only
                                   125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident that 2002
                                   numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would not be
                                   constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.
>     >

              Jan 16      In Play  McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its conference call,
              2002                 the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus is $18.95
              5:26 PM              mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72% gross mgn,
                                   and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point of rev
                                   consensus of $85.82 mln, and better than EPS consensus of $0.22).
>     >

              Jan 16      In Play  McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four
              2002                 cents better than the Multex consensus of $0.05; revenues were $18.6
              4:43 PM              mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.
>     >

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Unfortunately, nowadays any every news that is not excellent can decimate
a stock.
<p>Katherine Malm wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>&nbsp;Understood...all the sell signals were there...just
lost focus....more in the post analysis
<blockquote dir=ltr 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>

<div 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:GyorgyV@rcmachine.com" title="GyorgyV@rcmachine.com">Gyorgy
Veszpremi</a></div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:01
AM</div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] MCAF</div>
&nbsp;If you check the daily chart of MCAF today's action was not a surprise
after the last 3 down days on increased volume.
<br>&nbsp;
<p>Tom Worley wrote:
<blockquote TYPE="CITE"><style></style>
<font face="Arial">Hi Katherine,</font>
<font face="Arial">I took a quick look around, as I was curious about this
anomaly. Several items I noted:</font> <font face="Arial">MCAF notes their
tax rate in 2002 expected to jump to 38% from 28%, keeping them from guiding
earnings guidance even higher.</font> <font face="Arial">They are the antivirus
of choice for MSN's Hotmail. Wish they would also be an antispam for that
source. And with Hotmail being free, wonder just how much revenues they
are taking in from MS for this.</font> <font face="Arial">They indicate
they are bundled with Windows XP, but my new computer (with WIN XP) came
with Norton from</font>
<br><font face="Arial">Symantec.</font> <font face="Arial">Both beat expectations
by a wide margin, but actual results, fundies, and forward looking statements
look stronger for SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">Sell on news, MCAF results
older than SYMC.</font> <font face="Arial">I see little "dumb" about still
owning MCAF in light of the past few months, especially if you bought it
cheap. Maybe I might have cut my position some in the past few days, but
if I had been smart enough to buy it in late Sept or early Oct, likely
I would still now have a position.</font> Tom Worley
<br><a href="mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</a>
<br>AIM: TexWorley
<blockquote dir=ltr 
    style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>

<div 
      style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title="kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</a></div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:31
AM</div>

<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> [CANSLIM] MCAF</div>
&nbsp;Oh...here's the explanation for the SYMC vs. MCAF anomaly.... Will
post a technical post analysis later. I should just call this DYII, FIC
revisited... Katherine
<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>

<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 17 2002&nbsp;
<br>11:21 AM</td>

<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>

<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 24.85 -7.44 (-23%):
Robertson Stephens is raising several issues following MCAF's earnings
report last night; believes that the quality of revenue has eroded a bit
following co's change in license revenue structure; notes that in Q4 subscribers
grew by only 125K vs 200K sub adds in Q3. While firm remains confident
that 2002 numbers are beatable, thinks stk remains expensive, and would
not be constructive on the name until a move to $20 or below.</td>
</tr>
</table>

<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>

<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4w">Jan 16 2002&nbsp;
<br>5:26 PM</td>

<td VALIGN=TOP WIDTH="10%" class="td7w"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7w">In
Play</a></font></td>

<td WIDTH="78%">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: -- Update -- During its
conference call, the co guides higher Q1 rev/EPS to $19.1 mln/$0.06 (consensus
is $18.95 mln/$0.05); FY02 projections are revs of $80-$90 mln, 69-72%
gross mgn, and EPS should be in the range of $0.25-$0.28 (in the mid-point
of rev consensus of $85.82 mln, and <font color="#228822">better than</font>
EPS consensus of $0.22).</td>
</tr>
</table>

<table BORDER=0 CELLPADDING=2 WIDTH="754" >
<caption><TBODY>
<br></TBODY>
<br><TBODY>
<br></TBODY></caption>

<tr>
<td VALIGN=TOP NOWRAP WIDTH="12%" class="td4g">Jan 16 2002&nbsp;
<br>4:43 PM</td>

<td VALIGN=TOP ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="10%" class="td7g"><font color="#000000"><a href="http://www.briefing.com/scripts/ArchCal.asp?ID=IN" class="td7g">In
Play</a></font></td>

<td ROWSPAN="2" WIDTH="78%" class="r2">McAfee.com (MCAF) 32.29 -4.11: Reports
Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.09, four cents better than the Multex consensus
of $0.05; revenues were $18.6 mln vs the consensus of $17.8 mln.</td>
</tr>
</table>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>

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