Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis

From: "Bill Triffet" <btriffet@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 10:37:35 -0800

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Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short sellers at fault"
should have been a big red flag.
Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your reference to
"tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a way to track
daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend for study?

Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why is it
listed here?".


- -Bill
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis


DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early October.
This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due to the
poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was
interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure yesterday.
Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me:

(1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 week
base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I crossed
it off the list.
(2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says "short
sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and was a
red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like a gap
down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If it
happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that begins
to reverse and will sell into strength.
(3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone bought
on this breakout...let's see what comes next...
(4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just after
B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule.
(5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red flag....stock has
retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself.
(6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is acceptable,
might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red flags
and this one should be out of the portfolio.
(7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a row---last
red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here.
(8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if I'd
lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell signal.
(9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after market
close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything else...this
would be it.
(10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for the
exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell.
(11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb Greenberg
article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans and
goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed
everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for
"catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down.
(12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after market
close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these
questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere other
than the US and is still learning.

A chart with comments is posted at:
http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg

Katherine





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