Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 12:51:35 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thanks, Bill. There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In candlestick = analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" but I always = forget their official names as I have no context for the terms. I tend = to use more personal words to describe price action and it unfortunately = doesn't always translate well. When I was a kid I used to chase and = catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog = swimming south. Tail up....pollywog swimming north. My personal favorite site for learning more about technical analysis is = TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site-- http://www.tradingmarkets.com = ) Another with good technical chart reading lessons (free) is = StockCharts.com (http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html). For info = on candlesticks (free)--- http://www.litwick.com Katherine PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts = are: "Why is it listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework. Interestingly, = the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for fundamental strength = would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form of = technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell = another story. I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a = faulty pattern, so I understand why it showed up on the list, but would = otherwise be a "pass." ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Bill Triffet=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short sellers at = fault" should have been a big red flag. Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your reference to "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a way to = track daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend for = study? Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why = is it listed here?". -Bill ----- Original Message ----- From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early = October. This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due to = the poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure = yesterday. Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me: (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 = week base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I = crossed it off the list. (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says = "short sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and = was a red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like a = gap down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If it happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that = begins to reverse and will sell into strength. (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone = bought on this breakout...let's see what comes next... (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just = after B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule. (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red = flag....stock has retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself. (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is = acceptable, might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red = flags and this one should be out of the portfolio. (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a = row---last red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here. (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous = day--if I'd lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell = signal. (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after = market close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything = else...this would be it. (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for = the exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell. (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb = Greenberg article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans = and goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down. (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after = market close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere = other than the US and is still learning. A chart with comments is posted at: http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg Katherine - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Thanks, Bill.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In = candlestick=20 analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" but I always = forget=20 their official names as I have no context for the terms. I = tend to use=20 more personal words to describe price action and it unfortunately = doesn't always=20 translate well. When I was a kid I used to chase and catch = pollywogs....thus my=20 use of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog swimming south. Tail = up....pollywog=20 swimming north.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>My personal favorite site for learning more about technical = analysis is=20 TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site-- <A=20 href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com">http://www.tradingmarkets.com</A> = ) Another=20 with good technical chart reading lessons (free) is StockCharts.com (<A=20 href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html">http://stockcharts.c= om/education/index.html</A>).=20 For info on candlesticks (free)--- <A=20 href=3D"http://www.litwick.com">http://www.litwick.com</A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my = thoughts are:=20 "Why is it<BR>listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework.=20 Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for = fundamental=20 strength would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form = of=20 technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell = another story.=20 I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a faulty pattern, so I = understand why it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be a = "pass."</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dbtriffet@earthlink.net = href=3D"mailto:btriffet@earthlink.net">Bill=20 Triffet</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, = 2002 12:37=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] DYII=20 Revisited--post analysis</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about = "short=20 sellers at fault"<BR>should have been a big red flag.<BR>Excuse me if = you've=20 been asked this before here but your reference to<BR>"tails" in this = and other=20 posts has poked my interest as a way to track<BR>daily price moves. Is = there a=20 site or book you can recommend for study?<BR><BR>Btw, as I stare at my = Jan 11,=20 IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why is it<BR>listed=20 here?".<BR><BR><BR>-Bill<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: = "Katherine=20 Malm" <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>><BR>To: = <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>Sent:=20 Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII = Revisited--post=20 analysis<BR><BR><BR>DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the = list in=20 early October.<BR>This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the = time I=20 passed due to the<BR>poor chart action around 10/5. I have been = watching it=20 since and was<BR>interested in what the chart might have said prior to = the=20 failure yesterday.<BR>Here is what I saw that would have been sell = signals for=20 me:<BR><BR>(1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an = 11-1/2=20 week<BR>base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) = that I=20 crossed<BR>it off the list.<BR>(2) 10/8/01--gap down just before = earnings-Co.=20 press release says "short<BR>sellers at fault" That's the goofiest = reasoning=20 I've ever heard and was a<BR>red flag that these guys don't know what = they're=20 doing. I never like a gap<BR>down just before an earnings = announcement. It's a=20 big red flag. If it<BR>happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in = the next=20 day or 2 that begins<BR>to reverse and will sell into strength.<BR>(3) = 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone = bought<BR>on=20 this breakout...let's see what comes next...<BR>(4) 11/28/01--Reversal = that=20 closes below low of previous day just after<BR>B/O---I would take at = least 50%=20 off the table on this sell rule.<BR>(5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days = closing just=20 at "pivot"--red flag....stock has<BR>retraced to pivot, but not a sell = rule in=20 and of itself.<BR>(6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, = this action=20 is acceptable,<BR>might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are=20 there...more red flags<BR>and this one should be out of the = portfolio.<BR>(7)=20 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a = row---last<BR>red=20 flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone = here.<BR>(8)=20 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if=20 I'd<BR>lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next = sell=20 signal.<BR>(9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced = after=20 market<BR>close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed = everything=20 else...this<BR>would be it.<BR>(10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a = tail on=20 close---last chance for the<BR>exits, a little bounce while the = bargain=20 hunters move in. Sell.<BR>(11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just = before=20 market close, Herb Greenberg<BR>article at theStreet.com points out = possible=20 accounting shenanigans and<BR>goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income = statement=20 inquiries. If I'd missed<BR>everything else and this plunged, an open=20 protective stop set for<BR>"catastrophic loss" would have caught this = on the=20 way down.<BR>(12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg = article after=20 market<BR>close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have = answered=20 these<BR>questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting = somewhere=20 other<BR>than the US and is still learning.<BR><BR>A chart with = comments is=20 posted at:<BR><A=20 = href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg">http://Wa= llStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg</A><BR><BR>Katherine<BR><BR= ><BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_01CD_01C19F55.B2854700-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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