Re: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM


From: "Patrick Wahl" <pjwahl@attbi.com>
Subject: Re: AW: [CANSLIM] ROOM
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 11:07:35 -0700

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Your estimate for this year (2001) and next year differ from the consensus 
estimates I see at Quicken.  They show .89 for 2001, and 1.00 for 2002.  If that is a 
close approximation to what the numbers actually come in at, then ROOM is 
probably overvalued at this point.

On 17 Jan 2002 at 18:45, Andreas Himmelreich wrote:

> Hi Tom,
> 
> What do you mean by soft year?
> 
> Here the EPSs -->
> 
> 0.2
> 0.29
> 0.69
> 1 (my estimation for 2001)
> 1.5 (my estimation for 2002).
> 
> Its a smal cap going to be a mid cap, no firm can perform as good as in the 
> first years of growth, that slows like
> in all firms in this transistion phase.
> 
> PE is moderate, I like the scalable business model. They surfed through 
> 9/11 businesswise in a good way.
> 
> Hotels need ROOM, they provide a secondary room market in order to get 
> their hotels full on lower prices, while
> still selling normal rates to groups that are not price sensitive (business 
> travel, not so smart shopers).
> 
> Room is a marketer of hotel room capacity and if somthing hotels need in 
> though times then it is
> to market their capacity on garanteed price levels in order to cover their 
> fix costs.
> 
> ROI 12%, no dept, MGM owns 59% of the company.
> 
> 4 Earnings suprises the last 4 Quaters.
> 
> Here a summary (http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/room.html)
> 
> 
> Hotel Reservations Network, Inc. is a consolidator of hotel and other 
> lodging accommodations. The Company contracts with lodging properties in 
> advance for volume purchases and guaranteed availability of rooms at 
> wholesale prices, and sells these rooms to consumers often at significant 
> discounts to published rates. The Company's supply relationships also often 
> allow it to offer customers accommodation alternatives for otherwise 
> unavailable dates. In addition, through its wholly owned subsidiary, 
> TravelNow.com Inc., the Company offers customers the ability to book hotel 
> rooms, airline travel and car rentals. As of December 31, 2000, Hotel 
> Reservations Network had room supply agreements with approximately 2,600 
> hotels in 97 major markets in North America, the Caribbean, Western Europe 
> and Asia, as well as 113 vacation rental properties in 17 markets in North 
> America and the Caribbean.
> 
> 
> "Hotel Reservations Network is an online consolidator of hotel 
> accomodations, contracting with hotels in advance for volume purchases and 
> guaranteed availability of hotel rooms at wholesale prices which are then 
> sold to consumers. For the nine months ended 9/30/01, net revenues rose 73% 
> to $394.8 million. Net income rose 43% to $8.1 million. Results reflect 
> increased room sales through the Company's Internet sites, partially offset 
> by higher non-cash marketing costs."
> 
> Andreas
> 
> 
> > -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> > Von:	Tom Worley [SMTP:stkguru@netside.net]
> > Gesendet am:	Thursday, January 17, 2002 5:45 PM
> > An:	canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Betreff:	Re: [CANSLIM] ROOM
> >
> > Hi Andreas,
> >
> > I would be cautious with ROOM, great sequential sales growth not 
> reflected
> > in sequential earnings growth. Year to year earnings comparisons nice, 
> but
> > against a soft year. And with all that has happened since 9/11, hotels 
> are
> > cutting prices to attract visitors and increase occupancy, and avoid 
> laying
> > off staff or cutting services.
> >
> > So I would expect to see a continued erosion in their gross and net 
> profit
> > margins.
> >
> > Tom Worley
> > stkguru@netside.net
> > AIM: TexWorley
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Andreas Himmelreich" <judgejimmy@web.de>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 11:34 AM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] ROOM
> >
> >
> > > After this storm is over, Room might have built a nice CWH ....
> > >
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