Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Gyorgy Veszpremi <GyorgyV@rcmachine.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 13:43:46 -0600
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It seems that one of the last few good looking charts (DFXI) is also breaking
down.
Gene Ricci wrote:
> Topping Tail Bars - TT (Tail or Wick UP)
>
> Bars in which prices had been higher, then supply forced prices lower into the
> lower part of the bars range.
>
> Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is always the
> same ! Distribution has occurred!
>
>
>
> Bottoming Tail Bars - BT (Tail or Wick DOWN)
>
> Bars in which prices had been lower, then demand forced prices higher into the
> upper part of the bars range.
>
> Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is always the
> same ! Accumulation has occurred!
>
>
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Katherine Malm
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:51 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> Thanks, Bill. There are more technical terms for what I call a
> tail. In candlestick analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a
> "tail down" but I always forget their official names as I have no
> context for the terms. I tend to use more personal words to describe
> price action and it unfortunately doesn't always translate well.
> When I was a kid I used to chase and catch pollywogs....thus my use
> of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog swimming south. Tail
> up....pollywog swimming north. My personal favorite site for
> learning more about technical analysis is TradingMarkets.com.
> (excellent paid site-- http://www.tradingmarkets.com ) Another with
> good technical chart reading lessons (free) is StockCharts.com
> (http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html). For info on
> candlesticks (free)--- http://www.litwick.com Katherine PS... re
> "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are:
> "Why is it
> listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework.
> Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for
> fundamental strength would have told you this was ok. The high RS
> implies some form of technical strength. BUT due diligence and good
> chart reading tell another story. I don't think WON would advocate
> buying into such a faulty pattern, so I understand why it showed up
> on the list, but would otherwise be a "pass."
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Bill Triffet
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about
> "short sellers at fault"
> should have been a big red flag.
> Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your
> reference to
> "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a
> way to track
> daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can
> recommend for study?
>
> Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my
> thoughts are: "Why is it
> listed here?".
>
>
> -Bill
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM
> Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
>
>
> DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in
> early October.
> This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I
> passed due to the
> poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it
> since and was
> interested in what the chart might have said prior to the
> failure yesterday.
> Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for
> me:
>
> (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of
> an 11-1/2 week
> base. This is one of the reasons (along with due
> diligence) that I crossed
> it off the list.
> (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press
> release says "short
> sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever
> heard and was a
> red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I
> never like a gap
> down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red
> flag. If it
> happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day
> or 2 that begins
> to reverse and will sell into strength.
> (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's
> say someone bought
> on this breakout...let's see what comes next...
> (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous
> day just after
> B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell
> rule.
> (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red
> flag....stock has
> retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself.
> (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this
> action is acceptable,
> might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are
> there...more red flags
> and this one should be out of the portfolio.
> (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days
> in a row---last
> red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be
> gone here.
> (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of
> previous day--if I'd
> lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the
> next sell signal.
> (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced
> after market
> close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed
> everything else...this
> would be it.
> (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last
> chance for the
> exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in.
> Sell.
> (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market
> close, Herb Greenberg
> article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting
> shenanigans and
> goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries.
> If I'd missed
> everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop
> set for
> "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way
> down.
> (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article
> after market
> close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have
> answered these
> questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned
> accounting somewhere other
> than the US and is still learning.
>
> A chart with comments is posted at:
> http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg
>
> Katherine
>
>
>
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
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It seems that one of the last few good looking charts (DFXI) is also breaking
down.
<p>Gene Ricci wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE><style></style>
<b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font color="#9A0000"><font size=+1>Topping
Tail Bars - TT (Tail or Wick UP)</font></font></font></i></b>
<p><b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font color="#000066"><font size=+1>Bars
in which prices had been higher, then supply forced prices lower into the
lower part of the bars range.</font></font></font></i></b>
<p><b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font size=+1><font color="#000066">Pristine
Tip: While there are different variations, the </font><font color="#9A0000">message
</font><font color="#000066">is </font><font color="#9A0000">always </font><font color="#000066">the
same ! Distribution </font><font color="#9A0000">has occurred</font><font color="#000066">!</font></font></font></i></b>
<br>
<br>
<p><b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font color="#9A0000"><font size=+1>Bottoming
Tail Bars - BT (Tail or Wick DOWN)</font></font></font></i></b>
<p><b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font color="#000066"><font size=+1>Bars
in which prices had been lower, then demand forced prices higher into the
upper part of the bars range.</font></font></font></i></b>
<p><b><i><font face="TimesNewRoman,BoldItalic"><font size=+1><font color="#000066">Pristine
Tip: While there are different variations, the </font><font color="#9A0000">message
</font><font color="#000066">is </font><font color="#9A0000">always </font><font color="#000066">the
same ! Accumulation </font><font color="#9A0000">has occurred</font><font color="#000066">!</font></font></font></i></b>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<blockquote dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net" title="kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine
Malm</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:51
PM</div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post
analysis</div>
Thanks, Bill. There are more technical terms for what I call
a tail. In candlestick analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail
down" but I always forget their official names as I have no context for
the terms. I tend to use more personal words to describe price action and
it unfortunately doesn't always translate well. When I was a kid I used
to chase and catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term "tail." Tail down...pollywog
swimming south. Tail up....pollywog swimming north. My personal favorite
site for learning more about technical analysis is TradingMarkets.com.
(excellent paid site-- <a href="http://www.tradingmarkets.com">http://www.tradingmarkets.com</a>
) Another with good technical chart reading lessons (free) is StockCharts.com
(<a href="http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html">http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html</a>).
For info on candlesticks (free)--- <a href="http://www.litwick.com">http://www.litwick.com</a> Katherine PS...
re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why
is it
<br>listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework. Interestingly,
the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for fundamental strength would
have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form of technical strength.
BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell another story. I don't think
WON would advocate buying into such a faulty pattern, so I understand why
it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be a "pass."
<blockquote
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----</div>
<div
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><b>From:</b>
<a href="mailto:btriffet@earthlink.net" title="btriffet@earthlink.net">Bill
Triffet</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com" title="canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a></div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37
PM</div>
<div style="FONT: 10pt arial"><b>Subject:</b> Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post
analysis</div>
Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short sellers
at fault"
<br>should have been a big red flag.
<br>Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your reference
to
<br>"tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a way to track
<br>daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend for study?
<p>Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts are: "Why
is it
<br>listed here?".
<br>
<p>-Bill
<br>----- Original Message -----
<br>From: "Katherine Malm" <<a href="mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</a>>
<br>To: <<a href="mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</a>>
<br>Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM
<br>Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
<br>
<p>DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in early October.
<br>This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I passed due
to the
<br>poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since and was
<br>interested in what the chart might have said prior to the failure yesterday.
<br>Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me:
<p>(1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an 11-1/2 week
<br>base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) that I
crossed
<br>it off the list.
<br>(2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release says "short
<br>sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever heard and
was a
<br>red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I never like
a gap
<br>down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red flag. If
it
<br>happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or 2 that
begins
<br>to reverse and will sell into strength.
<br>(3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say someone
bought
<br>on this breakout...let's see what comes next...
<br>(4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day just after
<br>B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell rule.
<br>(5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red flag....stock
has
<br>retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself.
<br>(6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action is acceptable,
<br>might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are there...more red
flags
<br>and this one should be out of the portfolio.
<br>(7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days in a row---last
<br>red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be gone here.
<br>(8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of previous day--if
I'd
<br>lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next sell signal.
<br>(9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced after market
<br>close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed everything else...this
<br>would be it.
<br>(10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last chance for
the
<br>exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. Sell.
<br>(11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, Herb Greenberg
<br>article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting shenanigans
and
<br>goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If I'd missed
<br>everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop set for
<br>"catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down.
<br>(12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article after market
<br>close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have answered these
<br>questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting somewhere
other
<br>than the US and is still learning.
<p>A chart with comments is posted at:
<br><a href="http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg">http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg</a>
<p>Katherine
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<p>-
<br>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<a href="mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</a>"
<br>-In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
<br>-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.</blockquote>
</blockquote>
</blockquote>
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