Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2002 14:12:27 -0600
Previous Article (by Subject): RE: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis Dave Wulf
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C19F60.FE5143E0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable I'd agree that these are questions worth asking. I think the primary = point to take from the post analysis is that the Greenberg article did = not happen at point number 1, but point number 11. The analysis ends = with the rebuttal by the company which means this is an ongoing saga. Most anybody can listen in on a conference call. Many of them are listed = on the web, some are webcast, others have 800 numbers you can call, some = are delay-cast on the web, and if you are signed up with the company's = IR, they will send you an email to let you know when the call will be = held and how to listen in. Herb may not have even listened in himself, = but might have read a transcript forwarded to him by one of his field = operatives. Afterall, the transcript and call are public record. Herb is a fundamental investigator/reporter....that's what he does for a = living . Before writing for theStreet.com he did exactly the same sort = of analysis for the San Francisco Chronicle. His articles carry great = weight in the investing community because he is so darn good at what he = does. Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Dave Wulf=20 To: 'canslim@lists.xmission.com'=20 Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:53 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis I have a question(s) with regard to the Greenberg Article..... First = is: How is it he (Greenberg),happened to sit in on this call? Second is: What if....just what if, there are no "accounting shenananigans" and the = CFO and CEO are not making goofy responses/non-responses? And last a = suggestion that he sit in on a conference call for his employer: The Street.Com = (TSCM) sometime.....now there's a chart to analyze. Regards, Dave Wulf =20 > ---------- > From: Gene Ricci[SMTP:genr@swbell.net] > Reply To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:35 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis >=20 > Topping Tail Bars - TT (Tail or Wick UP) >=20 > Bars in which prices had been higher, then supply forced prices = lower into > the lower part of the bars range. >=20 > Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is = always > the same ! Distribution has occurred! >=20 > =20 >=20 > Bottoming Tail Bars - BT (Tail or Wick DOWN) >=20 > Bars in which prices had been lower, then demand forced prices = higher into > the upper part of the bars range. >=20 > Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is = always > the same ! Accumulation has occurred! >=20 > =20 >=20 > =20 >=20 > ----- Original Message -----=20 > From: Katherine Malm=20 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:51 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis >=20 > Thanks, Bill. >=20 > There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In > candlestick analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail = down" but > I always forget their official names as I have no context for the = terms. I > tend to use more personal words to describe price action and it > unfortunately doesn't always translate well. When I was a kid I used = to > chase and catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term "tail." Tail > down...pollywog swimming south. Tail up....pollywog swimming north. >=20 > My personal favorite site for learning more about technical analysis > is TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site-- > http://www.tradingmarkets.com ) Another with good technical chart = reading > lessons (free) is StockCharts.com ( > http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html). For info on = candlesticks > (free)--- http://www.litwick.com >=20 > Katherine >=20 > PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my > thoughts are: "Why is it > listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework. > Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for = fundamental > strength would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some = form of > technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell = another > story. I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a faulty = pattern, > so I understand why it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be = a > "pass." >=20 >=20 > ----- Original Message -----=20 > From: Bill Triffet=20 > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis >=20 > Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short > sellers at fault" > should have been a big red flag. > Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your > reference to > "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a > way to track > daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend > for study? >=20 > Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts > are: "Why is it > listed here?". >=20 >=20 > -Bill > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Katherine Malm" < kmalm@earthlink.net> > To: < canslim@lists.xmission.com> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis >=20 >=20 > DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in > early October. > This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I > passed due to the > poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since > and was > interested in what the chart might have said prior to the > failure yesterday. > Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me: >=20 > (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an > 11-1/2 week > base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence) > that I crossed > it off the list. > (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release > says "short > sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever > heard and was a > red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I > never like a gap > down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red > flag. If it > happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or > 2 that begins > to reverse and will sell into strength. > (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say > someone bought > on this breakout...let's see what comes next... > (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day > just after > B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell > rule. > (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red > flag....stock has > retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself. > (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action > is acceptable, > might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are > there...more red flags > and this one should be out of the portfolio. > (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days > in a row---last > red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be > gone here. > (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of > previous day--if I'd > lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next > sell signal. > (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced > after market > close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed > everything else...this > would be it. > (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last > chance for the > exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in. > Sell. > (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close, > Herb Greenberg > article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting > shenanigans and > goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If > I'd missed > everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop > set for > "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down. > (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article > after market > close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have > answered these > questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting > somewhere other > than the US and is still learning. >=20 > A chart with comments is posted at: > http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg >=20 > Katherine >=20 >=20 >=20 >=20 >=20 > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email " majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. >=20 >=20 - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C19F60.FE5143E0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>I'd agree that these are questions worth asking. I think the = primary point=20 to take from the post analysis is that the Greenberg article did not = happen at=20 point number 1, but point number 11. The analysis ends with the rebuttal = by the=20 company which means this is an ongoing saga.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Most anybody can listen in on a conference call. Many of them are = listed on=20 the web, some are webcast, others have 800 numbers you can call, some = are=20 delay-cast on the web, and if you are signed up with the company's IR, = they will=20 send you an email to let you know when the call will be held and how to = listen=20 in. Herb may not have even listened in himself, but might have read a = transcript=20 forwarded to him by one of his field operatives. Afterall, the = transcript and=20 call are public record.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Herb is a fundamental investigator/reporter....that's what he does = for a=20 living . Before writing for theStreet.com he did exactly the same sort = of=20 analysis for the San Francisco Chronicle. His articles carry great = weight in the=20 investing community because he is so darn good at what he does.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3DDWulf@WBMNet.Com href=3D"mailto:DWulf@WBMNet.Com">Dave = Wulf</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'">'canslim@lists.xmission.com'= </A>=20 </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, January 17, = 2002 1:53=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] DYII=20 Revisited--post analysis</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>I have a question(s) with regard to the Greenberg = Article.....=20 First is: How<BR>is it he (Greenberg),happened to sit in on this call? = Second=20 is: What<BR>if....just what if, there are no "accounting = shenananigans" and=20 the CFO and<BR>CEO are not making goofy responses/non-responses? = And=20 last a suggestion<BR>that he sit in on a conference call for his = employer: The=20 Street.Com (TSCM)<BR>sometime.....now there's a chart to = analyze. =20 Regards, Dave Wulf <BR><BR>> ----------<BR>> From: = Gene=20 Ricci[SMTP:genr@swbell.net]<BR>> Reply To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>=20 Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:35 PM<BR>> To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= <BR>>=20 Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis<BR>> <BR>> = Topping=20 Tail Bars - TT (Tail or Wick UP)<BR>> = <BR>> Bars=20 in which prices had been higher, then supply forced prices lower = into<BR>>=20 the lower part of the bars range.<BR>> <BR>> Pristine Tip: While = there=20 are different variations, the message is always<BR>> the same !=20 Distribution has occurred!<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> = Bottoming=20 Tail Bars - BT (Tail or Wick DOWN)<BR>> <BR>> Bars in which = prices had=20 been lower, then demand forced prices higher into<BR>> the upper = part of=20 the bars range.<BR>> <BR>> Pristine Tip: While there are = different=20 variations, the message is always<BR>> the same ! Accumulation has=20 occurred!<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> = <BR>>=20 ----- Original Message ----- <BR>> From: Katherine Malm <BR>> = To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= =20 <BR>> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:51 PM<BR>> Subject: = Re:=20 [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis<BR>> <BR>> Thanks, = Bill.<BR>>=20 <BR>> There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. = In<BR>>=20 candlestick analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" = but<BR>> I always forget their official names as I have no context = for the=20 terms. I<BR>> tend to use more personal words to describe price = action and=20 it<BR>> unfortunately doesn't always translate well. When I was a = kid I=20 used to<BR>> chase and catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term = "tail."=20 Tail<BR>> down...pollywog swimming south. Tail up....pollywog = swimming=20 north.<BR>> <BR>> My personal favorite site for learning more = about=20 technical analysis<BR>> is TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid=20 site--<BR>> <A=20 = href=3D"http://www.tradingmarkets.com">http://www.tradingmarkets.com</A> = )=20 Another with good technical chart reading<BR>> lessons (free) is=20 StockCharts.com (<BR>> <A=20 = href=3D"http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html">http://stockcharts.c= om/education/index.html</A>).=20 For info on candlesticks<BR>> (free)--- <A=20 href=3D"http://www.litwick.com">http://www.litwick.com</A><BR>> = <BR>>=20 Katherine<BR>> <BR>> PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD = Weekend=20 Review my<BR>> thoughts are: "Why is it<BR>> listed here?" = Exactly the=20 reason I do my own homework.<BR>> Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE = numbers if=20 used as a proxy for fundamental<BR>> strength would have told you = this was=20 ok. The high RS implies some form of<BR>> technical strength. BUT = due=20 diligence and good chart reading tell another<BR>> story. I don't = think WON=20 would advocate buying into such a faulty pattern,<BR>> so I = understand why=20 it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be a<BR>> = "pass."<BR>>=20 <BR>> <BR>> ----- Original Message ----- <BR>> From: Bill = Triffet=20 <BR>> To: <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= =20 <BR>> Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM<BR>> Subject: = Re:=20 [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis<BR>> <BR>> Excellent = analysis=20 Katherine! The comment (2) about "short<BR>> sellers at = fault"<BR>>=20 should have been a big red flag.<BR>> Excuse me if you've been = asked this=20 before here but your<BR>> reference to<BR>> "tails" in this and = other=20 posts has poked my interest as a<BR>> way to track<BR>> daily = price=20 moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend<BR>> for = study?<BR>>=20 <BR>> Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my = thoughts<BR>>=20 are: "Why is it<BR>> listed here?".<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> = - -Bill<BR>>=20 ----- Original Message -----<BR>> From: "Katherine Malm" < <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">kmalm@earthlink.net</A>><BR>> = To: <=20 <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>>=20 Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM<BR>> Subject: [CANSLIM] = DYII=20 Revisited--post analysis<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> DYII is a stock = that came=20 up for discussion on the list in<BR>> early October.<BR>> This = is a=20 stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I<BR>> passed due to=20 the<BR>> poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it=20 since<BR>> and was<BR>> interested in what the chart might have = said=20 prior to the<BR>> failure yesterday.<BR>> Here is what I saw = that would=20 have been sell signals for me:<BR>> <BR>> (1) = 10/5/01--tail...ominous=20 end to attempted breakout of an<BR>> 11-1/2 week<BR>> base. This = is one=20 of the reasons (along with due diligence)<BR>> that I = crossed<BR>> it=20 off the list.<BR>> (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. = press=20 release<BR>> says "short<BR>> sellers at fault" That's the = goofiest=20 reasoning I've ever<BR>> heard and was a<BR>> red flag that = these guys=20 don't know what they're doing. I<BR>> never like a gap<BR>> down = just=20 before an earnings announcement. It's a big red<BR>> flag. If = it<BR>>=20 happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or<BR>> 2 = that=20 begins<BR>> to reverse and will sell into strength.<BR>> (3)=20 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say<BR>> = someone=20 bought<BR>> on this breakout...let's see what comes next...<BR>> = (4)=20 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day<BR>> just=20 after<BR>> B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this=20 sell<BR>> rule.<BR>> (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just = at=20 "pivot"--red<BR>> flag....stock has<BR>> retraced to pivot, but = not a=20 sell rule in and of itself.<BR>> (6) 1/3/02--promising action on = high=20 volume--ok, this action<BR>> is acceptable,<BR>> might be ok=20 afterall...but still the red flags are<BR>> there...more red = flags<BR>>=20 and this one should be out of the portfolio.<BR>> (7) = 1/8/02-1/9/02--high=20 volume with no progress for 2 days<BR>> in a row---last<BR>> red = flag in=20 my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be<BR>> gone = here.<BR>> (8)=20 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of<BR>> previous = day--if=20 I'd<BR>> lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the=20 next<BR>> sell signal.<BR>> (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings = day=20 (earnings announced<BR>> after market<BR>> close)--sell rule = hit---if=20 I'd lost focus and missed<BR>> everything else...this<BR>> would = be=20 it.<BR>> (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on = close---last<BR>>=20 chance for the<BR>> exits, a little bounce while the bargain = hunters move=20 in.<BR>> Sell.<BR>> (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just = before=20 market close,<BR>> Herb Greenberg<BR>> article at theStreet.com = points=20 out possible accounting<BR>> shenanigans and<BR>> goofy CEO/CFO=20 nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If<BR>> I'd = missed<BR>>=20 everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop<BR>> set=20 for<BR>> "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way=20 down.<BR>> (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg=20 article<BR>> after market<BR>> close. I still can't figure out = why a CFO=20 couldn't have<BR>> answered these<BR>> questions when they were = asked.=20 Maybe he learned accounting<BR>> somewhere other<BR>> than the = US and is=20 still learning.<BR>> <BR>> A chart with comments is posted = at:<BR>>=20 <A=20 = href=3D"http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg">http://Wa= llStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg</A><BR>>=20 <BR>> Katherine<BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> <BR>> = <BR>>=20 -<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email " <A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR>> <BR>>=20 <BR><BR>-<BR>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01C19F60.FE5143E0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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