Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis

From: "Tim Fisher" <Tim@orerockon.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
Date: 17 Jan 2002 14:31:57 -0800
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Herb is a GOD. He killed me on a stock way back when and that is when I 
started to pay attention to him.

At 02:12 PM 1/17/2002 -0600, you wrote:
>I'd agree that these are questions worth asking. I think the primary point 
>to take from the post analysis is that the Greenberg article did not 
>happen at point number 1, but point number 11. The analysis ends with the 
>rebuttal by the company which means this is an ongoing saga.
>
>Most anybody can listen in on a conference call. Many of them are listed 
>on the web, some are webcast, others have 800 numbers you can call, some 
>are delay-cast on the web, and if you are signed up with the company's IR, 
>they will send you an email to let you know when the call will be held and 
>how to listen in. Herb may not have even listened in himself, but might 
>have read a transcript forwarded to him by one of his field operatives. 
>Afterall, the transcript and call are public record.
>
>Herb is a fundamental investigator/reporter....that's what he does for a 
>living . Before writing for theStreet.com he did exactly the same sort of 
>analysis for the San Francisco Chronicle. His articles carry great weight 
>in the investing community because he is so darn good at what he does.
>
>Katherine
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <mailto:DWulf@WBMNet.Com>Dave Wulf
>To: <mailto:'canslim@lists.xmission.com'>'canslim@lists.xmission.com'
>Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:53 PM
>Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
>
>I have a question(s) with regard to the Greenberg Article..... First is: How
>is it he (Greenberg),happened to sit in on this call? Second is: What
>if....just what if, there are no "accounting shenananigans" and the CFO and
>CEO are not making goofy responses/non-responses?  And last a suggestion
>that he sit in on a conference call for his employer: The Street.Com (TSCM)
>sometime.....now there's a chart to analyze.  Regards, Dave Wulf
>
> > ----------
> > From: Gene Ricci[SMTP:genr@swbell.net]
> > Reply To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 1:35 PM
> > To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> >
> > Topping Tail Bars - TT     (Tail or Wick UP)
> >
> > Bars in which prices had been higher, then supply forced prices lower into
> > the lower part of the bars range.
> >
> > Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is always
> > the same ! Distribution has occurred!
> >
> >
> >
> > Bottoming Tail Bars - BT (Tail or Wick DOWN)
> >
> > Bars in which prices had been lower, then demand forced prices higher into
> > the upper part of the bars range.
> >
> > Pristine Tip: While there are different variations, the message is always
> > the same ! Accumulation has occurred!
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Katherine Malm
> > To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:51 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> >
> > Thanks, Bill.
> >
> > There are more technical terms for what I call a tail. In
> > candlestick analysis there is a name for a "tail up" and a "tail down" but
> > I always forget their official names as I have no context for the terms. I
> > tend to use more personal words to describe price action and it
> > unfortunately doesn't always translate well. When I was a kid I used to
> > chase and catch pollywogs....thus my use of the term "tail." Tail
> > down...pollywog swimming south. Tail up....pollywog swimming north.
> >
> > My personal favorite site for learning more about technical analysis
> > is TradingMarkets.com. (excellent paid site--
> > <http://www.tradingmarkets.com>http://www.tradingmarkets.com ) Another 
> with good technical chart reading
> > lessons (free) is StockCharts.com (
> > 
> <http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html>http://stockcharts.com/education/index.html). 
> For info on candlesticks
> > (free)--- <http://www.litwick.com>http://www.litwick.com
> >
> > Katherine
> >
> > PS... re "Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my
> > thoughts are: "Why is it
> > listed here?" Exactly the reason I do my own homework.
> > Interestingly, the EPS/SMR/ROE numbers if used as a proxy for fundamental
> > strength would have told you this was ok. The high RS implies some form of
> > technical strength. BUT due diligence and good chart reading tell another
> > story. I don't think WON would advocate buying into such a faulty pattern,
> > so I understand why it showed up on the list, but would otherwise be a
> > "pass."
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Bill Triffet
> > To: <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 12:37 PM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> >
> > Excellent analysis Katherine! The comment (2) about "short
> > sellers at fault"
> > should have been a big red flag.
> > Excuse me if you've been asked this before here but your
> > reference to
> > "tails" in this and other posts has poked my interest as a
> > way to track
> > daily price moves. Is there a site or book you can recommend
> > for study?
> >
> > Btw, as I stare at my Jan 11, IBD Weekend Review my thoughts
> > are: "Why is it
> > listed here?".
> >
> >
> > -Bill
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Katherine Malm" < <mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net>kmalm@earthlink.net>
> > To: < <mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com>canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2002 9:30 AM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] DYII Revisited--post analysis
> >
> >
> > DYII is a stock that came up for discussion on the list in
> > early October.
> > This is a stock that crossed my radar, but at the time I
> > passed due to the
> > poor chart action around 10/5. I have been watching it since
> > and was
> > interested in what the chart might have said prior to the
> > failure yesterday.
> > Here is what I saw that would have been sell signals for me:
> >
> > (1) 10/5/01--tail...ominous end to attempted breakout of an
> > 11-1/2 week
> > base. This is one of the reasons (along with due diligence)
> > that I crossed
> > it off the list.
> > (2) 10/8/01--gap down just before earnings-Co. press release
> > says "short
> > sellers at fault" That's the goofiest reasoning I've ever
> > heard and was a
> > red flag that these guys don't know what they're doing. I
> > never like a gap
> > down just before an earnings announcement. It's a big red
> > flag. If it
> > happens, I'll generally wait for a bounce in the next day or
> > 2 that begins
> > to reverse and will sell into strength.
> > (3) 11/26/01--Breakout from sloppy 7 wk base. So, let's say
> > someone bought
> > on this breakout...let's see what comes next...
> > (4) 11/28/01--Reversal that closes below low of previous day
> > just after
> > B/O---I would take at least 50% off the table on this sell
> > rule.
> > (5) 12/10/01-12/12/01--3 days closing just at "pivot"--red
> > flag....stock has
> > retraced to pivot, but not a sell rule in and of itself.
> > (6) 1/3/02--promising action on high volume--ok, this action
> > is acceptable,
> > might be ok afterall...but still the red flags are
> > there...more red flags
> > and this one should be out of the portfolio.
> > (7) 1/8/02-1/9/02--high volume with no progress for 2 days
> > in a row---last
> > red flag in my book, if I'd held the last 50%, it would be
> > gone here.
> > (8) 1/10/02--high volume tail that closes below low of
> > previous day--if I'd
> > lost focus and missed the last sell, this would be the next
> > sell signal.
> > (9) 1/14/02--gaps down on earnings day (earnings announced
> > after market
> > close)--sell rule hit---if I'd lost focus and missed
> > everything else...this
> > would be it.
> > (10) 1/15/02--bounces, but leaves a tail on close---last
> > chance for the
> > exits, a little bounce while the bargain hunters move in.
> > Sell.
> > (11) 1/16/02--resolution. 2:46 pm, just before market close,
> > Herb Greenberg
> > article at theStreet.com points out possible accounting
> > shenanigans and
> > goofy CEO/CFO nonresponse to income statement inquiries. If
> > I'd missed
> > everything else and this plunged, an open protective stop
> > set for
> > "catastrophic loss" would have caught this on the way down.
> > (12) 1/16/02--Company issues response to Greenberg article
> > after market
> > close. I still can't figure out why a CFO couldn't have
> > answered these
> > questions when they were asked. Maybe he learned accounting
> > somewhere other
> > than the US and is still learning.
> >
> > A chart with comments is posted at:
> > 
> <http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg>http://WallStreet-LLC.com/pub/DYII-PostAnal_011602.jpg 
>
> >
> > Katherine
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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Tim Fisher
Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site
Pacific Fishery Biologists Information
mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com
WWW http://OreRockOn.com


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