Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2002 17:36:33 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Ian, Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow = translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I = see and the way I would read it if I were to own it: - -After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 = weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base = low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01. - -Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock is = 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above = the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the = 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for = the Rubberband Sell Rule. - -After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to = show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to = tell. - -1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag. - -1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on high = volume. Red flag. - -With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE Extension = check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using = trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of = 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which = means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet to = see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot: http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati= on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, so = I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which = reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at = $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag. One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after = rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile. I'll let you take it from there! Katherine ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please? Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock at = this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart? I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner I = am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and = knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to = consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd = rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may = be complacent. Thank you. Ian - ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV>Hi Ian,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow = translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I = see and=20 the way I would read it if I were to own it:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 = weeks.=20 This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base low 8.01 = which=20 was printed on 11/23/01.</DIV> <DIV>-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the = stock is 70%=20 above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% above the = base=20 low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the 200dMA = according to=20 WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for the Rubberband Sell = Rule.</DIV> <DIV>-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started = to show=20 signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to = tell.</DIV> <DIV>-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.</DIV> <DIV>-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress = on high=20 volume. Red flag.</DIV> <DIV>-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE = Extension=20 check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October using = trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at $7.13/$.29 = =3D 24.59.=20 The extension warning would then be a forward PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. = Let's see.=20 DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough=20 analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find anything and ran = across=20 this EPS/Rev snapshot:</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><A=20 href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyi= nformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE">http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI= /mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<= /A></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 = years, so I=20 am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software which = reads a=20 measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 = =3D 599!=20 I'll have to mark that Red Flag.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating = after=20 rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd = quartile.</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>I'll let you take it from there!</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Katherine</DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> = </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 18, 2002 = 4:40=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Katherine - = Opinion=20 please?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you = exit the=20 stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the=20 chart?</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one = big recent=20 winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past = experiences,=20 and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to=20 consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But = I'd rather=20 listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may be=20 complacent.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thank you.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_013B_01C1A046.ABE5BF00-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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