Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 01:25:34 -0500
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I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the loss =
from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time I =
tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the new =
high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, and =
1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the =
low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 =
October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern =
me.
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed that Q4 =
2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and I =
figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, the =
ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current =
levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth =
rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to =
see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go over 85, =
and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on IBD radar =
screens for the first time - including the weekend review. Perhaps it =
will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes visible.
Thanks again,
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Hi Ian,
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I follow =
translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what I =
see and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for about 5 =
weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous base =
low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the stock =
is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% =
above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the =
200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for =
the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has started to =
show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no way to =
tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress on =
high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE =
Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in =
October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it =
at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward =
PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, =
which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet =
to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:
=
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati=
on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 years, =
so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software =
which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at =
$11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating after =
rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd quartile.
I'll let you take it from there!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please?
Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the stock =
at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart?
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent winner =
I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past experiences, and =
knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it needs to =
consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But I'd =
rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I may =
be complacent.
Thank you.
Ian
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has =
nearly made=20
up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the =
first time=20
I tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 18, 2002 =
8:01=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low =
volume during=20
the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, =
1/11,=20
and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that =
the=20
low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 =
October=20
low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern=20
me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The =
company=20
claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing =
backlog,=20
and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from =
now, the=20
ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current =
levels=20
would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth rate, =
a much=20
higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to see more =
signs of=20
volume accumulation here. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking =
should go=20
over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing =
on IBD=20
radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. =
Perhaps it=20
will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes=20
visible.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks again,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 18, =
2002 3:36=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Ian,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I =
follow=20
translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you what =
I see=20
and the way I would read it if I were to own it:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for =
about 5=20
weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the previous =
base low=20
8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.</DIV>
<DIV>-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the =
stock is=20
70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and 49.6% =
above the=20
base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% above the =
200dMA=20
according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a red flag for =
the=20
Rubberband Sell Rule.</DIV>
<DIV>-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has =
started to=20
show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, but no =
way to=20
tell.</DIV>
<DIV>-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.</DIV>
<DIV>-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price =
progress on=20
high volume. Red flag.</DIV>
<DIV>-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE =
Extension=20
check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in October =
using=20
trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it at =
$7.13/$.29 =3D=20
24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward PE of =
24.59*2.21=3D 54.3.=20
Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, which means it isn't =
followed by=20
enough analysts. I checked the internet to see if I could find =
anything and=20
ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyi=
nformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE">http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI=
/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<=
/A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 =
years, so=20
I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest software =
which=20
reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward looking PE at=20
$11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating =
after=20
rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd=20
quartile.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'll let you take it from there!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 18, =
2002 4:40=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Katherine -=20
Opinion please?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make =
you exit=20
the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the=20
chart?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would appreciate your analysis - it is the =
one big=20
recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my =
past=20
experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me =
that it=20
needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by =
mid-year.=20
But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long =
enough that I=20
may be complacent.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thank you.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></=
HTML>
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