Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 08:48:39 -0600
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Hi Tom
This is what I don't get, and I'm not trying to be objectionable, =
just trying to find out how you'd get $.16/quarter given the company's =
history. When I look at this, I see OK growth in revenues, but the =
company continuously has good and bad quarters. I noticed in the 10Q =
that they capitalize software development and then write it off in =
chunks every so often (not uncommon) and it's possible that these =
negative quarters every so often are related to that. I'm guessing if I =
were to dig further into the financials I would get to know them better. =
I know that they did an acquisition in 2000, and I'd assume that the =
growth in EPS would be related. I look at Sept/Oct 99 and see really =
nice quarters just like the last two we've seen recently, but they are =
then followed by negative or so-so quarters. That raises red flags and =
would lead me to question whether the growth pattern shown recently can =
be projected into the future.
Katherine
GROWTH RATES=20
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years=20
Sales % -11.70 15.54 -14.53=20
EPS % NM NM NM=20
Dividend % NM NM NM=20
REVENUE=20
Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001=20
MAR 8,343 12,988 13,334 14,295=20
JUN 10,850 15,401 13,741 17,392=20
SEP 12,385 15,381 12,858 18,516=20
DEC 13,484 15,496 12,399 =20
=20
Totals 45,062 59,266 52,332 50,203=20
Note: Units in Thousands of U.S. Dollars=20
=20
=20
EARNINGS PER SHARE=20
Quarters 1998 1999 2000 2001=20
MAR -0.070 0.010 0.050 -0.040=20
JUN -0.060 0.080 0.010 0.160=20
SEP 0.020 0.140 -0.020 0.230=20
DEC -0.030 0.210 -0.060 =20
=20
Totals -0.140 0.440 -0.020 0.350=20
Note: Units in U.S. Dollars=20
=20
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 8:27 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Hi Katherine,
I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 sequential quarters (last =
two were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be accelerating thru Q3, so =
even a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave them well =
over 16 cents/qtr.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 9:09 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Tom, Ian
Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a =
*very* quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the =
acquisition in 2000?
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:25 AM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock has nearly made up the =
loss from the first voyage. Looks more promising now than the first time =
I tried it. Sequential growth particularly impressive.
Tom Worley
stkguru@netside.net
AIM: TexWorley
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 8:01 PM
Subject: Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low volume during the =
new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress days on 1/10, 1/11, =
and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I convinced myself that the =
low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, too fast' off the $5 =
October low. The recent high volume/no movement days are what concern =
me.
There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. The company claimed =
that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with existing backlog, and =
I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so 4 months from now, =
the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, and the P/E at current =
levels would be under 20. Given their industry group and recent growth =
rate, a much higher price could easily be supported. But I would like to =
see more signs of volume accumulation here.=20
After the next earnings report the IBD EPS ranking should go =
over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should start appearing on =
IBD radar screens for the first time - including the weekend review. =
Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next clear direction becomes =
visible.
Thanks again,
Ian
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Katherine Malm=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 3:36 PM
Subject: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?]
Hi Ian,
Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules that I =
follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll tell you =
what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own it:
-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates for =
about 5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the =
previous base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.
-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means that the =
stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA (10.43) and =
49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for being 70% =
above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does not get a =
red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule.
-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has =
started to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, =
but no way to tell.
-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.
-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price progress =
on high volume. Red flag.
-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a PE =
Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the B/O in =
October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. That puts it =
at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then be a forward =
PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have any estimates, =
which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I checked the internet =
to see if I could find anything and ran across this EPS/Rev snapshot:
=
http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformati=
on/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE
I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the last 4 =
years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my VectorVest =
software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current forward =
looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red Flag.
One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, consolidating =
after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in the 2nd =
quartile.
I'll let you take it from there!
Katherine
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Ian=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 4:40 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Katherine - Opinion please?
Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE make you exit the =
stock at this point? Do you have any other insights into the chart?
I would appreciate your analysis - it is the one big recent =
winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on all of my past =
experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut tells me that it =
needs to consolidate here, but will run into the $20's by mid-year. But =
I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've held it long enough that I =
may be complacent.
Thank you.
Ian
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charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Diso-8859-1">
<META content=3D"MSHTML 5.50.4611.1300" name=3DGENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D"100%" bgColor=3D#ffffff =
border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TH bgColor=3D#ffffff colSpan=3D4>
<DIV align=3Dleft>Hi Tom</DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft> </DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft>This is what I don't get, and I'm not trying to =
be=20
objectionable, just trying to find out how you'd get $.16/quarter =
given=20
the company's history. When I look at this, I see OK growth in =
revenues,=20
but the company continuously has good and bad quarters. I noticed =
in the=20
10Q that they capitalize software development and then write it =
off in=20
chunks every so often (not uncommon) and it's possible that =
these=20
negative quarters every so often are related to that. I'm guessing =
if I=20
were to dig further into the financials I would get to know them =
better. I=20
know that they did an acquisition in 2000, and I'd assume that the =
growth=20
in EPS would be related. I look at Sept/Oct 99 and see really nice =
quarters just like the last two we've seen recently, but they are =
then=20
followed by negative or so-so quarters. That raises red flags and =
would=20
lead me to question whether the growth pattern shown recently can =
be=20
projected into the future.</DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft> </DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft>Katherine</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D-1></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D-1>GROWTH RATES</FONT></DIV></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TH bgColor=3D#dddddd></TH>
<TH bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT size=3D-1>1 Year</FONT></TH>
<TH bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT size=3D-1>3 Years</FONT></TH>
<TH bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT size=3D-1>5 Years</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT size=3D-1>Sales %</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-11.70</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>15.54</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-14.53</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT size=3D-1>EPS %</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT size=3D-1>Dividend %</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT=20
size=3D-1>NM</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D4 width=3D475 bgColor=3D#dddddd =
border=3D0>
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cols=3D5 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D"100%" =
bgColor=3D#ffffff=20
border=3D0>
<COLGROUP>
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TH bgColor=3D#ffffff colSpan=3D5><FONT =
size=3D-1>REVENUE</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TH align=3Dleft bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>Quarters</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>1998</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>1999</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>2000</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>2001</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>MAR</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>8,343</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>12,988</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>13,334</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>14,295</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>JUN</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>10,850</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>15,401</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>13,741</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>17,392</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>SEP</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>12,385</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>15,381</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>12,858</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>18,516</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>DEC</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>13,484</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>15,496</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>12,399</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#dddddd colSpan=3D5></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TH align=3Dleft bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT =
size=3D-1>Totals</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>45,062</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>59,266</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>52,332</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>50,203</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#dddddd colSpan=3D5><FONT=20
size=3D-1><B>Note: </B>Units in Thousands of U.S. =
Dollars</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#ffffff> </TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD>
<TABLE cellSpacing=3D1 cols=3D5 cellPadding=3D2 width=3D"100%" =
bgColor=3D#ffffff=20
border=3D0>
<COLGROUP>
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<COL width=3D"20%">
<TBODY>
<TR>
<TH bgColor=3D#ffffff colSpan=3D5><FONT size=3D-1>EARNINGS PER =
SHARE</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TH align=3Dleft bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>Quarters</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>1998</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>1999</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>2000</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dmiddle bgColor=3D#dddddd><FONT =
size=3D-1>2001</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>MAR</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.070</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.010</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>0.050</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>-0.040</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>JUN</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.060</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.080</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>0.010</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.160</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>SEP</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>0.020</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.140</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.020</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.230</FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD><FONT size=3D-1>DEC</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.030</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.210</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.060</FONT></TD>
<TD align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1></FONT></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TD bgColor=3D#dddddd colSpan=3D5></TD></TR>
<TR>
<TH align=3Dleft bgColor=3D#ffffff><FONT =
size=3D-1>Totals</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.140</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.440</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright bgColor=3D#eeeeee><FONT =
size=3D-1>-0.020</FONT></TH>
<TH align=3Dright><FONT size=3D-1>0.350</FONT></TH></TR>
<TR>
<TD align=3Dright bgColor=3D#dddddd colSpan=3D5><FONT=20
size=3D-1><B>Note: </B>Units in U.S.=20
=
Dollars</FONT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom =
Worley</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, January 19, =
2002 8:27=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Hi Katherine,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I see 16 cents as easy based on the last 4 =
sequential=20
quarters (last two were 16 and 23 cents). Sales appear to be =
accelerating thru=20
Q3, so even a moderate slowdown in acceleration should still leave =
them well=20
over 16 cents/qtr.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net =
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine=20
Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, January 19, =
2002 9:09=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Tom, Ian</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Just curious...where do you get $.16/Q EPS estimates? I took a =
*very*=20
quick glance at the last 10Q, are you basing this on the acquisition =
in=20
2000?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@netside.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, January 19, =
2002=20
12:25 AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I agree, Ian. My second trip on this stock =
has=20
nearly made up the loss from the first voyage. Looks more =
promising now=20
than the first time I tried it. Sequential growth particularly=20
impressive.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Tom Worley<BR><A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20
TexWorley</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January 18, =
2002 8:01=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks a lot for the chart analysis. The low =
volume=20
during the new high to $13.50, and the high volume/no progress =
days on=20
1/10, 1/11, and 1/15 were the things that concerned me. I =
convinced=20
myself that the low-volume high was just a case of 'too much, =
too fast'=20
off the $5 October low. The recent high volume/no movement =
days are=20
what concern me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>There shouldn't be much concern with P/E. =
The company=20
claimed that Q4 2001, and Q1 2002 were already filled with =
existing=20
backlog, and I figure that a minimum of $0.16 per Q is easy - so =
4=20
months from now, the ttm EPS will be at least $0.70 if not more, =
and the=20
P/E at current levels would be under 20. Given their industry =
group and=20
recent growth rate, a much higher price could easily be =
supported. But I=20
would like to see more signs of volume accumulation here. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>After the next earnings report the IBD EPS =
ranking=20
should go over 85, and the RS is over 90 already, so it should =
start=20
appearing on IBD radar screens for the first time - including =
the=20
weekend review. Perhaps it will be a month or so before the next =
clear=20
direction becomes visible.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thanks again,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dkmalm@earthlink.net=20
href=3D"mailto:kmalm@earthlink.net">Katherine Malm</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January =
18, 2002=20
3:36 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re:ELTE (was =
[CANSLIM]=20
Katherine-Opinion please?]</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Hi Ian,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Your question has me wondering whether the sell rules =
that I=20
follow translate perfectly to thinly traded stocks. But I'll =
tell you=20
what I see and the way I would read it if I were to own =
it:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>-After the B/O at 7.13, stock moves up and consolidates =
for about=20
5 weeks. This is a "valid" consolidation so that makes the =
previous=20
base low 8.01 which was printed on 11/23/01.</DIV>
<DIV>-Just as a quick check for "overextension" that means =
that the=20
stock is 70% above the 200dMA (7.02), 15% above the 50dMA =
(10.43) and=20
49.6% above the base low (8.01). It gets a yellow flag for =
being 70%=20
above the 200dMA according to WON's sell rule #34, but does =
not get a=20
red flag for the Rubberband Sell Rule.</DIV>
<DIV>-After the consolidation and breakout 12/18 the stock has =
started=20
to show signs of stress. This could easily be market related, =
but no=20
way to tell.</DIV>
<DIV>-1/2/02: New high on low volume. Red flag.</DIV>
<DIV>-1/10/02 & 1/11/02- two days with little or no price =
progress=20
on high volume. Red flag.</DIV>
<DIV>-With 1 yellow and 2 red flags I thought it worth doing a =
PE=20
Extension check. I've reconstructed the PE at the time of the =
B/O in=20
October using trailing EPS numbers for the prior quarters. =
That puts=20
it at $7.13/$.29 =3D 24.59. The extension warning would then =
be a=20
forward PE of 24.59*2.21=3D 54.3. Let's see. DGO doesn't have =
any=20
estimates, which means it isn't followed by enough analysts. I =
checked=20
the internet to see if I could find anything and ran across =
this=20
EPS/Rev snapshot:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><A=20
=
href=3D"http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyi=
nformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE">http://yahoo.marketguide.com/MGI=
/mg.asp?target=3D/stocks/companyinformation/highlights&Ticker=3DELTE<=
/A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I am alarmed by the essentially flat revenues over the =
last 4=20
years, so I am going to go with the EPS estimates in my =
VectorVest=20
software which reads a measly $.02. That puts the current =
forward=20
looking PE at $11.98/$0.02 =3D 599! I'll have to mark that Red =
Flag.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>One note is that its industry is fairly healthy, =
consolidating=20
after rising, not overly extended and currently ranked in =
the 2nd=20
quartile.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I'll let you take it from there!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Katherine</DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: =
5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- =
</DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca =
href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, January =
18, 2002=20
4:40 PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] =
Katherine -=20
Opinion please?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Would tuesdays distribution day for ELTE =
make you=20
exit the stock at this point? Do you have any other insights =
into=20
the chart?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>I would appreciate your analysis - it is =
the one=20
big recent winner I am wondering what to do with. Based on =
all of my=20
past experiences, and knowing the companies outlook, my gut =
tells me=20
that it needs to consolidate here, but will run into =
the $20's=20
by mid-year. But I'd rather listen to the chart. I fear I've =
held it=20
long enough that I may be complacent.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Thank you.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT=20
=
size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQU=
OTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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