Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@netside.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 10:22:24 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: Re:ELTE (was [CANSLIM] Katherine-Opinion please?] "Tom Worley"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C1A0D3.2FC2BE40 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable RETAIL SALES Overall, December was better than expected, dropping only 0.1% instead = of the expected 1.2% and well ahead of November's 3% drop. But car sales = was again the big factor, taking that and auto parts sales out, the rest = of sales dropped 0.1% instead of an expected "unchanged". Saw another = mention that car sales may have been enough to keep Q4's GDP in positive = territory at CNN's Money/Economics site, but also again mentioning the = likelihood that all the zero financing deals "cannibalized" auto sales = in early 2002. Sales for all of 2001 were up 3.4% compared to 2000's = gain of 7.6%.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ONE LINERS (or a little longer) Over $2.3 trillion now sits in money market accounts, twice what was = there 3 years ago. Corporate bond defaults have more than doubled. Per Moody's, last year = 253 companies defaulted on over $110 billion in debt. Enron is the = biggest bankruptcy in history, and its lenders are only now starting to = write off their loans to them. KMart is rumored to be on the verge of = filing bankruptcy. Banks are starting to write down their Argentina debt = due to the unlinking of the peso to the dollar, and the number of = bankruptcies occurring there. They finally resumed trading there, and = ended up over 11%. Is it coincidence that Arthur Andersen is Enron's consultant / advisor / = auditor, and was also doing some of the same for Sunbeam? (some Sunbeam = execs just settled a shareholder class action lawsuit for $15 million so = they can concentrate on defending themselves against fraud charges by = the SEC). Sure, I'll pay you guys $15 really big ones, but, hey, I'm = still not admitting I did anything wrong with the company financial = reports. Maybe we should be buying shares in companies making = shredders?? This is the third big financial scandal in recent years = involving Andersen, and now leading to cries from Congress for = governmental regulation of accounting firms. Great idea, let the = politicians who rarely can balance a budget, and invented the concept of = off-book accounting, regulate the accountants. The CPI in December benefited from falling energy prices and dropped = 0.2%, slightly better than expected. The core rate, without food and = energy, increased 0.1% as expected. For all of 2001, the CPI only gained = 1.6% while the core rate was up 2.7%. This increases the likelihood of a = Fed rate cut 1/30/02. Banks are setting aside funds for reserves against loan defaults at a = slower rate than defaults are occurring. Even though reserves increased = by 42% ($30.2 billion), defaults increased by 50% ($25.4 billion) in the = first nine months of 2001. This dropped the loan loss reserve ratio = (reserves divided by actual losses written off) to the lowest in 8 = years, from 170% to 129%. And that doesn't consider the rise in = non-performing loans (over 90 days past due, but not yet written off) = that rose from $48.8 billion to $59 billion. Part of my global perspective comes from monitoring how other markets = are doing around the globe. When I get home, I look to see how Asia is = doing, as that can influence European markets. When I wake in the = morning, I do the same, to see how Asia closed, and how Europe is = trading, as many large US stocks trade on European exchanges.=20 http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u Some months ago, I noted that France's index (CAC 40) and Germany's = index (DAX) were almost tied, less than 100 points apart. Since then, = the DAX has clearly won the race, now nearly 700 points ahead. Because = of my mixed German and French ancestry (I even have a piece of the = Berlin Wall, and I definitely have the French ego), I have always taken = a strong interest in how these two countries are doing, and see them as = the key to European economic success. Consumer sentiment rose to 94.2 in January from 88.8 in December, = according to the University of Michigan's survey. Expected was 90. In December, the Current Conditions Index, measuring American's = perspective on their present financial state, dropped to 98.1 from 99.0 = while the Expectations Index leaped ahead to 91.7 from 82.3. Old news: trade gap narrowed more than expected in November, largely due = lower oil imports. Housing starts fell in December after the warm weather surge in = November, but building permits shot up, suggesting continued strength in = the housing industry. Economists expected permits to decline. New jobless claims fell to 384K from 398K. Economists expected it to = rise to 438K. Suggests the worst of the layoffs is behind us, but = overall unemployment still likely to remain high for several months even = as the economy recovers. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES Although new highs have continued to beat new lows, the population of = stocks meeting my general criteria for this review seems to still be = stagnant. As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" weeks duration. If I see a = specific basing formation (c&h, double bottom, LLUR, etc) I will say so. ACDO - B2 ACS - LLUR BBY - B4 BSYS - c&h, nicely formed 3 week handle on declining volume BVF - LLUR CRN - saucer DCOM - saucer DLX - LLUR ELTE - B4 FCN - LLUR GBCI - B4 GFF - B6 HCT - B3, I bailed too early on this one, low volume HRBT - B5 INDB - B3 MATW - B8 MCO - B5 MCRS - nice b/o from base on long handle, right at left rim of original = cup NVR - B6 PETM - LLUR SWTX - LLUR, low price URBN - B4 Happy Hunting, God bless America, and its military people, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C1A0D3.2FC2BE40 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>RETAIL SALES</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Overall, December was better than expected, = dropping only=20 0.1% instead of the expected 1.2% and well ahead of November's 3% drop. = But car=20 sales was again the big factor, taking that and auto parts sales out, = the rest=20 of sales dropped 0.1% instead of an expected "unchanged". Saw another = mention=20 that car sales may have been enough to keep Q4's GDP in positive = territory at=20 CNN's Money/Economics site, but also again mentioning the likelihood = that all=20 the zero financing deals "cannibalized" auto sales in early 2002. Sales = for all=20 of 2001 were up 3.4% compared to 2000's gain of 7.6%.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ONE LINERS (or a little=20 longer)</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Over $2.3 trillion now sits in money market = accounts,=20 twice what was there 3 years ago.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Corporate bond defaults have more than doubled. = Per=20 Moody's, last year 253 companies defaulted on over $110 billion in debt. = Enron=20 is the biggest bankruptcy in history, and its lenders are only now = starting=20 to write off their loans to them. KMart is rumored to be on the verge of = filing=20 bankruptcy. Banks are starting to write down their Argentina debt due to = the=20 unlinking of the peso to the dollar, and the number of bankruptcies = occurring=20 there. They finally resumed trading there, and ended up over = 11%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Is it coincidence that Arthur Andersen is = Enron's=20 consultant / advisor / auditor, and was also doing some of the same for = Sunbeam?=20 (some Sunbeam execs just settled a shareholder class action lawsuit for = $15=20 million so they can concentrate on defending themselves against fraud = charges by=20 the SEC). Sure, I'll pay you guys $15 really big ones, but, hey, I'm = still not=20 admitting I did anything wrong with the company financial reports. Maybe = we=20 should be buying shares in companies making shredders?? This is the = third big=20 financial scandal in recent years involving Andersen, and now leading to = cries=20 from Congress for governmental regulation of accounting firms. Great = idea, let=20 the politicians who rarely can balance a budget, and invented the = concept of=20 off-book accounting, regulate the accountants.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The CPI in December benefited from falling = energy prices=20 and dropped 0.2%, slightly better than expected. The core rate, without = food and=20 energy, increased 0.1% as expected. For all of 2001, the CPI only gained = 1.6%=20 while the core rate was up 2.7%. This increases the likelihood of a Fed = rate cut=20 1/30/02.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Banks are setting aside funds for reserves = against loan=20 defaults at a slower rate than defaults are occurring. Even though = reserves=20 increased by 42% ($30.2 billion), defaults increased by 50% ($25.4 = billion) in=20 the first nine months of 2001. This dropped the loan loss reserve ratio=20 (reserves divided by actual losses written off) to the lowest in 8 = years, from=20 170% to 129%. And that doesn't consider the rise in non-performing loans = (over=20 90 days past due, but not yet written off) that rose from $48.8 billion = to $59=20 billion.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Part of my global perspective comes from = monitoring how=20 other markets are doing around the globe. When I get home, I look to see = how=20 Asia is doing, as that can influence European markets. When I wake in = the=20 morning, I do the same, to see how Asia closed, and how Europe is = trading, as=20 many large US stocks trade on European exchanges. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><A=20 href=3D"http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u">http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u</A></FON= T></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Some months ago, I noted that France's index = (CAC 40) and=20 Germany's index (DAX) were almost tied, less than 100 points apart. = Since then,=20 the DAX has clearly won the race, now nearly 700 points ahead. Because = of my=20 mixed German and French ancestry (I even have a piece of the Berlin = Wall, and I=20 definitely have the French ego), I have always taken a strong interest = in how=20 these two countries are doing, and see them as the key to European = economic=20 success.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer sentiment rose to 94.2 in January from = 88.8 in=20 December, according to the University of Michigan's survey. Expected was = 90.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In December, the Current Conditions Index, = measuring=20 American's perspective on their present financial state, dropped to 98.1 = from=20 99.0 while the Expectations Index leaped ahead to 91.7 from = 82.3.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Old news: trade gap narrowed more than expected = in=20 November, largely due lower oil imports.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts fell in December after the warm = weather=20 surge in November, but building permits shot up, suggesting continued = strength=20 in the housing industry. Economists expected permits to = decline.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New jobless claims fell to 384K from 398K. = Economists=20 expected it to rise to 438K. Suggests the worst of the layoffs is behind = us, but=20 overall unemployment still likely to remain high for several months = even as=20 the economy recovers.</FONT><FONT face=3DArial></DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABEES</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Although new highs have continued to beat new = lows, the=20 population of stocks meeting my general criteria for this review seems = to still=20 be stagnant.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As always, Bx means a flat line "B"ase of "x" = weeks=20 duration. If I see a specific basing formation (c&h, double bottom, = LLUR,=20 etc) I will say so.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACDO - B2</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACS - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BBY - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BSYS - c&h, nicely formed 3 week handle on = declining=20 volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BVF - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CRN - saucer</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DCOM - saucer</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DLX - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GBCI - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GFF - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HCT - B3, I bailed too early on this one, low=20 volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HRBT - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>INDB - B3</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MATW - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCO - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MCRS - nice b/o from base on long handle, right = at left=20 rim of original cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NVR - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PETM - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SWTX - LLUR, low price</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>URBN - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America, and its military = people,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@netside.net">stkguru@netside.net</A><BR>AIM:=20 TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0050_01C1A0D3.2FC2BE40-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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