Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "walter nusbaum" <wnusbaum@airmail.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
Date: Wed, 23 Jan 2002 10:58:10 -0600
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C1A3FC.D8AEB960 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ian, "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and A+ in down markets = with an annualized gain of 4.6% since 5/31/90(sic), according to = Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers that inspire = confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or construction = of TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. = It is a great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to = Elder, the market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time = to take action is immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its = high/low reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The = Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific = number. Elder's recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I = don't know what TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I = suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals loooong before = their time). The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn if necessary, = every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the Index that = is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers = above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not be used = mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different = market conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell signals when = divergence from the Index being used is observed and when used in = combination with the New High-New Low Index.=20 Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and will probably be = followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little confidence in a = return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile industry with its = attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., has = been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but housing = has already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. = Consumer Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is = the result of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and = bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the producers, the = very folks that we look to for increased earnings. There's more, but = this grows lengthy so I'll shut up. Thanks for your note. Best wishes, Walt =20 ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ... Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter Eliades of Stock = Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that the lowest = single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That = seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the = past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had = transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at = the answer! The answer is none." The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last week. It used to = have huge historical significance in indicating that a major bottom was = to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the = past year alone. I don't pretend to know what it means, but there certainly has been a = considerable amount of panic over the last 2 weeks. Ian PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that someone asked = for: http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C1A3FC.D8AEB960 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2712.300" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>"Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets = and A+ in=20 down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since = 5/31/90(sic), according=20 to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly the kind of numbers = that inspire=20 confidence. At any rate, there is nothing in the theory or = construction of=20 TRIN that allows for speculation as to the degree of market change. It = is a=20 great market reversal indicator and that's all. According to Elder, = the=20 market can stay over bought/sold for some time and the time to take = action is=20 immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low reading and=20 re-penetrates the overbought or oversold line.(The Equis link says = to=20 buy/sell upon reaching the line, which is a specific number. Elder's=20 recommendation puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what = TRIN was=20 doing during the debacle of 2000, but I suspect(using the Equis=20 standard) it gave buy signals loooong before their = time).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>The lines themselves should be revisited, and = redrawn if=20 necessary, every three months based upon the interaction of TRIN and the = Index=20 that is being used. The lines indicate areas of concern = and specific=20 numbers above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can not = be used=20 mechanically- the same readings mean different things under different = market=20 conditions(Bull/Bear).</FONT> <FONT size=3D2>TRIN gives its best = buy/sell=20 signals when divergence from the Index being used is observed and when = used=20 in combination with the New High-New Low Index. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number = and will=20 probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing, but have little = confidence in a return of the Bull for many moons. The automobile = industry with=20 its attendant suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc., = has been=20 trashed; housing has typically propelled the new Bull, but = housing has=20 already had its own run with little effect on the overall market. = Consumer=20 Confidence would seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result = of=20 lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and bargains picked = up by=20 consumers at the expense of the producers, the very folks that we look = to for=20 increased earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll = shut up.=20 Thanks for your note.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Best wishes,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Walt</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2> </FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> = </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, January 22, 2002 = 12:32=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Panic attack = ...</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter = Eliades of=20 Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays trading, we noticed that = the lowest=20 single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That = seemed=20 unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look back over the past 61 = years=20 (since 1940) to find out how many other 10 day periods had transpired = without=20 one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the answer! The = answer=20 is none."</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again = last week.=20 It used to have huge historical significance in indicating that a = major bottom=20 was to be put in within 20 trading days. It has now happened 4 times = in the=20 past year alone.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>I don't pretend to know what it means, but there = certainly=20 has been a considerable amount of panic over the last 2 = weeks.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>Ian</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV><FONT size=3D2>PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index = that someone=20 asked for: <A=20 = href=3D"http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html">http://www.equis.c= om/free/taaz/armsindex.html</A></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial size=3D2></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></FONT></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0014_01C1A3FC.D8AEB960-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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