RE: [CANSLIM] BZH

From: "Dave" <drubin@i-2000.com>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] BZH
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 11:45:13 -0500
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LEN is also breaking out, after a failed breakout last week.

Same with DFXI (not a homebuilder but nevertheless breaking out after a
failed breakout).

When stocks fake a breakout, only to have a true breakout days later, what
does it say about the market? Were the recent "sell everything" signals
false, or is the action over the past few days just a temporary bounce?

I suspended all buys after all the recent distribution, but now I'm seeing
new breakouts on stocks that I have been watching. Frustrating, to say the
least...

> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of rolatzi
> Sent: Thursday, January 24, 2002 11:36 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BZH
>
>
>
>
> BZH, in home building industry is breaking out from a cup
> and handle today. EPS=80 QRS=93, 1yr EPS Growth = 63, 5 yr
> EPS growth = 33.  I do not own this stock but housing has
> been the stalwart for the market in the last few months
> --- Tom Worley <stkguru@netside.net> wrote:
> > Walter,
> >
> > I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion.
> > While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a
> > recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to
> > make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early.
> > There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home
> > builders group, and I was adding more to my three
> > positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment,
> > in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy
> > costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means
> > a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
> >
> > Tom Worley
> > stkguru@netside.net
> > AIM: TexWorley
> >   ----- Original Message -----
> >   From: walter nusbaum
> >   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >   Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM
> >   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
> >
> >
> >   Ian,
> >   "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and
> > A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since
> > 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly
> > the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate,
> > there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN
> > that allows for speculation as to the degree of market
> > change. It is a great market reversal indicator and
> > that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over
> > bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is
> > immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low
> > reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold
> > line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the
> > line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation
> > puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what
> > TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I
> > suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals
> > loooong before their time).
> >
> >   The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn
> > if necessary, every three months based upon the
> > interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The
> > lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers
> > above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can
> > not be used mechanically- the same readings mean
> > different things under different market
> > conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell
> > signals when divergence from the Index being used is
> > observed and when used in combination with the New
> > High-New Low Index.
> >
> >   Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and
> > will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing,
> > but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for
> > many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant
> > suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc.,
> > has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new
> > Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little
> > effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would
> > seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result
> > of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and
> > bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the
> > producers, the very folks that we look to for increased
> > earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll
> > shut up. Thanks for your note.
> >   Best wishes,
> >   Walt
> >
> >     ----- Original Message -----
> >     From: Ian
> >     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> >     Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM
> >     Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
> >
> >
> >     Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter
> > Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays
> > trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN
> > reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That
> > seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look
> > back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how
> > many other 10 day periods had transpired without one
> > single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the
> > answer! The answer is none."
> >
> >     The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last
> > week. It used to have huge historical significance in
> > indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20
> > trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past
> > year alone.
> >
> >     I don't pretend to know what it means, but there
> > certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over
> > the last 2 weeks.
> >
> >     Ian
> >
> >
> >     PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that
> > someone asked for:
> > http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html
> >
>
>
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