Re: [CANSLIM] BZH

From: rolatzi <rolatzi@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] BZH
Date: Thu, 24 Jan 2002 08:35:32 -0800 (PST)
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BZH, in home building industry is breaking out from a cup
and handle today. EPS=80 QRS=93, 1yr EPS Growth = 63, 5 yr
EPS growth = 33.  I do not own this stock but housing has
been the stalwart for the market in the last few months
- --- Tom Worley <stkguru@netside.net> wrote:
> Walter,
> 
> I would have to disagree with part of your conclusion.
> While the housing industry did not prevent the start of a
> recession, it is likely that it significantly helped to
> make it a shallow recession, and will help end it early.
> There still seems to be a lot of juice left in the home
> builders group, and I was adding more to my three
> positions in my fund today. Adding to Consumer Sentiment,
> in addition to lower mortgage payments, is lower energy
> costs. That, plus the tax cuts that started 1/1/02, means
> a little more money in everyone's paycheck or wallet.
> 
> Tom Worley
> stkguru@netside.net
> AIM: TexWorley
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: walter nusbaum 
>   To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>   Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2002 11:58 AM
>   Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
> 
> 
>   Ian,
>   "Stock Market Cycles" was rated "F" in up markets and
> A+ in down markets with an annualized gain of 4.6% since
> 5/31/90(sic), according to Forbes(22 JAN 01); not exactly
> the kind of numbers that inspire confidence. At any rate,
> there is nothing in the theory or construction of TRIN
> that allows for speculation as to the degree of market
> change. It is a great market reversal indicator and
> that's all. According to Elder, the market can stay over
> bought/sold for some time and the time to take action is
> immediately after TRIN makes a reversal off its high/low
> reading and re-penetrates the overbought or oversold
> line.(The Equis link says to buy/sell upon reaching the
> line, which is a specific number. Elder's recommendation
> puts you in sync with the new trend. I don't know what
> TRIN was doing during the debacle of 2000, but I
> suspect(using the Equis standard) it gave buy signals
> loooong before their time).
> 
>   The lines themselves should be revisited, and redrawn
> if necessary, every three months based upon the
> interaction of TRIN and the Index that is being used. The
> lines indicate areas of concern and specific numbers
> above or below the lines have little meaning. TRIN can
> not be used mechanically- the same readings mean
> different things under different market
> conditions(Bull/Bear). TRIN gives its best buy/sell
> signals when divergence from the Index being used is
> observed and when used in combination with the New
> High-New Low Index. 
> 
>   Having said all that, 1.5 is a doozy of a number and
> will probably be followed by a downturn. I know nothing,
> but have little confidence in a return of the Bull for
> many moons. The automobile industry with its attendant
> suppliers such as steel, glass, rubber, plastics, etc.,
> has been trashed; housing has typically propelled the new
> Bull, but housing has already had its own run with little
> effect on the overall market. Consumer Confidence would
> seem to be a bright spot, but it probably is the result
> of lower mortgage payments due to massive refinancing and
> bargains picked up by consumers at the expense of the
> producers, the very folks that we look to for increased
> earnings. There's more, but this grows lengthy so I'll
> shut up. Thanks for your note.
>   Best wishes,
>   Walt
>       
>     ----- Original Message ----- 
>     From: Ian 
>     To: canslim@lists.xmission.com 
>     Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2002 12:32 PM
>     Subject: [CANSLIM] Panic attack ...
> 
> 
>     Here's a very interesting recent quote from Peter
> Eliades of Stock Market Cycles: "At the end of todays
> trading, we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN
> reading over the past 10 trading days was 1.143. That
> seemed unusual to us, so we asked the computer to look
> back over the past 61 years (since 1940) to find out how
> many other 10 day periods had transpired without one
> single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the
> answer! The answer is none."
> 
>     The 10 day ARMS index (TRIN) got up to 1.5 again last
> week. It used to have huge historical significance in
> indicating that a major bottom was to be put in within 20
> trading days. It has now happened 4 times in the past
> year alone.
> 
>     I don't pretend to know what it means, but there
> certainly has been a considerable amount of panic over
> the last 2 weeks.
> 
>     Ian
> 
> 
>     PS - Here is a quick overview of the ARMS index that
> someone asked for:
> http://www.equis.com/free/taaz/armsindex.html
> 


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